When will indyref2 happen?

[ClydeTon]

12 minutes ago, StellarHibee said:

Problem is, a boot in the baws for them is a boot in the baws for us. If the SNP were to be out-seated in Scottish seats at Westminster or at Holyrood. You could expect a whole lot of shenanigans to unfold that would effectively make it impossible for them to ever be in that position again.

That would be closer to murder than a boot in the baws. I just hope for a narrow win (~30 seats) that would call for Humza's resignation. The SNP haven't went lower than 35 since 2015, of course. A narrow defeat would force him out without blowing the SNP out of the picture. A hammering defeat would do both.

It's a tricky one to try and make work, when even the SNP are at odds with what's best for the movement.

[StellarHibee]

3 minutes ago, ClydeTon said:

That would be closer to murder than a boot in the baws. I just hope for a narrow win (~30 seats) that would call for Humza's resignation. The SNP haven't went lower than 35 since 2015, of course. A narrow defeat would force him out without blowing the SNP out of the picture. A hammering defeat would do both.

It's a tricky one to try and make work, when even the SNP are at odds with what's best for the movement.

But let's say the SNP do surprisingly well instead. Wouldn't he deserve credit for that?

[ClydeTon]

Just now, StellarHibee said:

But let's say the SNP do surprisingly well instead. Wouldn't he deserve credit for that?

He would, yes. But he's still not got a clue what to do, so in the bigger picture it would probably be a bad thing.

[StellarHibee]

2 minutes ago, ClydeTon said:

He would, yes. But he's still not got a clue what to do, so in the bigger picture it would probably be a bad thing.

Perhaps. I don't think any of them would have a clue what to do right now tbh. I don't believe it's simply down to him.

[Trogdor]

Turnout will be the problem for the SNP, it won't be votes haemorrhaging to Labour. There may be a soft swing but no more than that. If Labour offered a bolder vision and shifted on even being able to have a referendum, they might see more support.

The independence movement is in a holding pattern just now. Effectively there is nothing that can be done whilst there in the level of intransigence in Westminster. It's hard to move the needle on that. 

In a lot of ways you would expect the SNP to be doing better especially with a right wing Tory government in Westminster and Brexit. That being said, they have been in government for 15 years and its been getting a bit patchy. 

Next years election will be interesting. I do expect the SNP to get a bloody nose but they will comfortably be the biggest party imo.

[StellarHibee]

5 minutes ago, Trogdor said:

If Labour offered a bolder vision and shifted on even being able to have a referendum, they might see more support.

Thank fux for Keir Starmer.

[itzdrk]

9 minutes ago, StellarHibee said:

Thank fux for Keir Starmer.

It was bolder not balder. 

[D Angelo Barksdale]

Page 1690 lads.

Cursed.

[DiscoStu]

I see Hosie's the latest to desert the sinking ship 

[D Angelo Barksdale]

Thought it was only the empty headed tartan gonks who did blood and soil nationalism.

[O'Kelly Isley III]

4 minutes ago, Ziggy Sobotka said:

Thought it was only the empty headed tartan gonks who did blood and soil nationalism.

How appropriate that Mordaunt's bitter Unionist rant should appear on Page 1690 of this thread

[Boo Khaki]

"It's family" - well perhaps in some cases, literally, but we're not 'family' an any more of a sense than Germans and French are 'family'. Neighbours perhaps.

"A shared culture" - eh... naw. You are utterly taking the piss with that one, unless you include the BBC broadcasting shite like 'Stricty' to the entire UK as 'shared culture'.

"History" - again, only in as much as Scotland shares 'history' with every other nation on the planet, due to sharing the same planet.

"Endeavour" - does that include all the instances of the English nation actively working to sabotage the fortunes of the Scottish nation? What about the history of cross-borders wars and invasions? Or wait... are we playing that game where we all pretend history began in 1707?

Blood & Soil Nationalism perhaps, but I totally reject the Yoon nonsense of 'more in common/all the same', it's self-evidently complete and utter shite.

[Donathan]

On 28/06/2023 at 20:39, Trogdor said:

Turnout will be the problem for the SNP, it won't be votes haemorrhaging to Labour. There may be a soft swing but no more than that. If Labour offered a bolder vision and shifted on even being able to have a referendum, they might see more support.

The independence movement is in a holding pattern just now. Effectively there is nothing that can be done whilst there in the level of intransigence in Westminster. It's hard to move the needle on that. 

In a lot of ways you would expect the SNP to be doing better especially with a right wing Tory government in Westminster and Brexit. That being said, they have been in government for 15 years and its been getting a bit patchy. 

Next years election will be interesting. I do expect the SNP to get a bloody nose but they will comfortably be the biggest party imo.

The problem that the SNP have got is that there’s a big cliff edge. Labour only have four target seats that require < 5% swing. They are Glasgow North East, Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath, East Lothian and finally the Rutherglen & Hamilton West seat that will likely go red at the upcoming by-election)

 

All four of those seats were Labour pre-2015 and more interestingly all four were Labour between 2017-2019 too.

 

But if we start getting into bigger swings, another ten seats across the central belt are in play if Labour can achieve a swing in the 5%-10% region. 

Fourteen more could go with a 10%-15% swing. 

 

The SNP polled 45% at the last election and Labour polled 19%. The average of the last five polls has the SNP leading on 37% and Labour next on 29%. That’s a 9% swing which could mean the SNP losing a dozen or more seats. If the polls swing any further than that towards Labour you’re looking at a big landslide across central Scotland with the SNP only just managing to remain as the largest party. 

Edited August 14, 2023 by Donathan

[Granny Danger]

If the SNP are still the largest party after the next GE but lose about a dozen seats to Labour this will portrayed as a massive Labour victory by the MSM.

[O'Kelly Isley III]

2 hours ago, Donathan said:

The problem that the SNP have got is that there’s a big cliff edge. Labour only have four target seats that require < 5% swing. They are Glasgow North East, Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath, East Lothian and finally the Rutherglen & Hamilton West seat that will likely go red at the upcoming by-election)

 

All four of those seats were Labour pre-2015 and more interestingly all four were Labour between 2017-2019 too.

 

But if we start getting into bigger swings, another ten seats across the central belt are in play if Labour can achieve a swing in the 5%-10% region. 

Fourteen more could go with a 10%-15% swing. 

 

The SNP polled 45% at the last election and Labour polled 19%. The average of the last five polls has the SNP leading on 37% and Labour next on 29%. That’s a 9% swing which could mean the SNP losing a dozen or more seats. If the polls swing any further than that towards Labour you’re looking at a big landslide across central Scotland with the SNP only just managing to remain as the largest party. 

They won't go red, they'd go a deep shade of purple with the amount of blue Labour is impregnated with these days.

[StellarHibee]

31 minutes ago, Granny Danger said:

If the SNP are still the largest party after the next GE but lose about a dozen seats to Labour this will portrayed as a massive Labour victory by the MSM.

It'll be portrayed as the death of independence by every major MSM network and outlet. Anybody who backs independence but is seriously considering voting for Keir Starmer and his mob, needs to give their heads a right good rinse.

[StellarHibee]

27 minutes ago, O&#x27;Kelly Isley III said:

They won't go red, they'd go a deep shade of purple with the amount of blue Labour is impregnated with these days.

A UKIPish purple at that.

[HTG]

I'm in Dublin for a few days and, apart from the history of their fight for independence, it's a country where you get the government that the majority of people vote for rather than one that's not had a majority since 1955. Oh aye, nobody is talking about removing human rights as a solution to anything. God knows what the answer is but waiting for Westminster to approve anything in terms of Scotland's status is pointless. 

[Antlion]

On 07/08/2023 at 20:39, Ziggy Sobotka said:

Thought it was only the empty headed tartan gonks who did blood and soil nationalism.

Mordaunt: “We often hear rational arguments about the merits of union based on shared prosperity and security. Whilst correct…”

Also Mordaunt: “Union is bad. We should run reject shared prosperity and security. Let’s take back control.”

Utter p***k of a c**t.

[ScotiaNostra]

3 hours ago, HTG said:

I'm in Dublin for a few days and, apart from the history of their fight for independence, it's a country where you get the government that the majority of people vote for rather than one that's not had a majority since 1955. Oh aye, nobody is talking about removing human rights as a solution to anything. God knows what the answer is but waiting for Westminster to approve anything in terms of Scotland's status is pointless. 

agree and currently there is no plan from the SNP, only Salmond has come up with anything and it doesnt look like the SNP will agree to that even when it might actually work.