When will indyref2 happen?

[Left Back]

11 minutes ago, Billy Jean King said:

32 minutes ago, Left Back said:

The newly formed Scottish government will pay for it out of tax receipts raised, in exactly the same way UK pensions are paid for and the liability will be passed to them.  There are roughly a million people of pension age in Scotland.  The state pension is approximately £10k per year so that would be roughly £10bn that has to be funded every year.  Do you really think the UK gov are going to fund that for the next few decades (given that over time it will decline).  We're talking hundreds of billions of pounds.  Do you really believe UK gov is going to subsidise an independent Scotland to the tune of hundreds of billions of pounds?
What settlement in lieu of the pre-indy contributions?  The pre-indy contributions have been spent on previous generations of pensioners.  There is no pot of money to claim a share of.  Pensions are paid for on a month to month basis by the tax receipts.  If there was a pot of money I'd agree Scotland would be entitled to a share but that's not how state pensions work in the UK.

You are misinterpreting or not understanding what I posted. Of course the SG will pay it from day 1 (would seem an obvious solution but who knows) but the settlement in lieu of contributions already made to the UKG will be go towards the funding of it. No one is saying the UKG will fully fund it or pay it for years. There will be a settlement figure the terms of which (one off or ongoing instalments from UKG) will be decided during the negotiations.

That seems to be exactly what some people are saying.

Again, contributions you, I and the rest of us have made have been used to fund the pensions of people that are currently drawing their pension.  That money is gone.  That's how the state pension in the UK works.

[BTFD]

So, essentially, if we murdered all the pensioners, it could solve our problems.

I'm not saying "do it", just run it through the computer and see if it could work. Maybe raise VAT too.

[strichener]

38 minutes ago, Left Back said:

The newly formed Scottish government will pay for it out of tax receipts raised, in exactly the same way UK pensions are paid for and the liability will be passed to them.  There are roughly a million people of pension age in Scotland.  The state pension is approximately £10k per year so that would be roughly £10bn that has to be funded every year.  Do you really think the UK gov are going to fund that for the next few decades (given that over time it will decline).  We're talking hundreds of billions of pounds.  Do you really believe UK gov is going to subsidise an independent Scotland to the tune of hundreds of billions of pounds?

What settlement in lieu of the pre-indy contributions?  The pre-indy contributions have been spent on previous generations of pensioners.  There is no pot of money to claim a share of.  Pensions are paid for on a month to month basis by the tax receipts.  If there was a pot of money I'd agree Scotland would be entitled to a share but that's not how state pensions work in the UK.

You are continuing to ignore the current precedent.  If you have contributed NI you accrue pension entitlement regardless of where you reside in the world.  Are you seriously suggesting that the aUK would put special rules in place that say "but not for Scotland".  It is completely unworkable.

If you were to take the hypothetical scenarios where Scotland gains Independence in 2025 and John, living in Scotland reaches pension age in 2024.  Who pays?  If he reaches pension age in 2026, who pays?  If he is actually English but living in Scotland, who pays?  Or if he moves to England before reaching pension age, who pays?

The only logical and workable solution is that the UK will be liable for the pension based on contributions to date and then the Scottish government will pick up the liability for any contributions made post Independence to the Scottish Exchequer.  Nothing else is either workable or sensible.

[strichener]

13 minutes ago, Left Back said:

When it comes to pensions pretty much yes. 

I can't remember the name of it but there's basically a buffer account that holds roughly two months or so of payments that is drawn from and topped up on a monthly basis.  This account or fund or whatever exists to ensure that there is enough money to pay out if contributions for that month aren't as much as needs to be paid out.

Current NI contributions aren't put into a ring fenced fund or invested.  They are used to pay the pensions of existing pensioners.

It doesn't matter how the UK fund pensions, NI contributions are where the entitlement to your pension comes from.  

[Barney Rubble]

25 minutes ago, Billy Jean King said:

47 minutes ago, Left Back said:

The newly formed Scottish government will pay for it out of tax receipts raised, in exactly the same way UK pensions are paid for and the liability will be passed to them.  There are roughly a million people of pension age in Scotland.  The state pension is approximately £10k per year so that would be roughly £10bn that has to be funded every year.  Do you really think the UK gov are going to fund that for the next few decades (given that over time it will decline).  We're talking hundreds of billions of pounds.  Do you really believe UK gov is going to subsidise an independent Scotland to the tune of hundreds of billions of pounds?
What settlement in lieu of the pre-indy contributions?  The pre-indy contributions have been spent on previous generations of pensioners.  There is no pot of money to claim a share of.  Pensions are paid for on a month to month basis by the tax receipts.  If there was a pot of money I'd agree Scotland would be entitled to a share but that's not how state pensions work in the UK.

You are misinterpreting or not understanding what I posted. Of course the SG will pay it from day 1 (would seem an obvious solution but who knows) but the settlement in lieu of contributions already made to the UKG will be go towards the funding of it. No one is saying the UKG will fully fund it or pay it for years. There will be a settlement figure the terms of which (one off or ongoing instalments from UKG) will be decided during the negotiations.

Exactly this. 

In much the same way that the pensions of ex-UK MEPs and ex-UK employees of the European Institutions were ring-fenced as part of the Brexit negotiation. 

[Left Back]

6 minutes ago, strichener said:

You are continuing to ignore the current precedent.  If you have contributed NI you accrue pension entitlement regardless of where you reside in the world.  Are you seriously suggesting that the aUK would put special rules in place that say "but not for Scotland".  It is completely unworkable.

If you were to take the hypothetical scenarios where Scotland gains Independence in 2025 and John, living in Scotland reaches pension age in 2024.  Who pays?  If he reaches pension age in 2026, who pays?  If he is actually English but living in Scotland, who pays?  Or if he moves to England before reaching pension age, who pays?

The only logical and workable solution is that the UK will be liable for the pension based on contributions to date and then the Scottish government will pick up the liability for any contributions made post Independence to the Scottish Exchequer.  Nothing else is either workable or sensible.

If SG refused to contribute a reasonable sum out of their own revenues that is exactly what I can see happening.  As I’ve said we’re talking hundreds of billions of pounds.  I can’t see any scenario where UK gov will agree to pay pensions to people in Scotland without SG reimbursing the money.

If the scenario is that payments are still handle by the UK for a period of time then a figure will be agreed that the SG have to provide every month out of taxation to cover the share of pensions paid to people in Scotland.  I can’t imagine such a scenario lasting long though before responsibility for paying direct to Scottish pensioners is passed back to SG.

[BTFD]

13 minutes ago, strichener said:

You are continuing to ignore the current precedent.  If you have contributed NI you accrue pension entitlement regardless of where you reside in the world.  Are you seriously suggesting that the aUK would put special rules in place that say "but not for Scotland".  It is completely unworkable.

They genuinely might try, you know.

There's a whole lot of nose-cutting-off been going on in recent years.

[strichener]

7 minutes ago, Barney Rubble said:

Exactly this. 

In much the same way that the pensions of ex-UK MEPs and ex-UK employees of the European Institutions were ring-fenced as part of the Brexit negotiation. 

This isn't really the case though, our expected contribution has increased and our payments will continue for years.

[strichener]

2 minutes ago, Left Back said:

If SG refused to contribute a reasonable sum out of their own revenues that is exactly what I can see happening.  As I’ve said we’re talking hundreds of billions of pounds.  I can’t see any scenario where UK gov will agree to pay pensions to people in Scotland without SG reimbursing the money.

If the scenario is that payments are still handle by the UK for a period of time then a figure will be agreed that the SG have to provide every month out of taxation to cover the share of pensions paid to people in Scotland.  I can’t imagine such a scenario lasting long though before responsibility for paying direct to Scottish pensioners is passed back to SG.

I'll have whatever you're smoking.  Why would Scotland pay out significant sums from revenues for liabilities accrued by the UK?  You appear to keep missing the point that the UK already have these liabilities regardless of what happens with Independence.

[Dawson Park Boy]

10 minutes ago, Barney Rubble said:

Exactly this. 

In much the same way that the pensions of ex-UK MEPs and ex-UK employees of the European Institutions were ring-fenced as part of the Brexit negotiation. 

Completely different scenario.

Ii would imagine these pensions are funded?

[Left Back]

11 minutes ago, Barney Rubble said:

Exactly this. 

In much the same way that the pensions of ex-UK MEPs and ex-UK employees of the European Institutions were ring-fenced as part of the Brexit negotiation. 

That's the exact opposite scenario.  the EU's pension liability was an amount of money.  Lots of that was accrued while the UK was part of the EU so it's only right that the EU contributed a sum towards future pension liability.

What people seem to be saying here is the exact opposite of that.  They're basically saying that Scotland should not contribute towards future pension liability and the UK should take it all.

[Billy Jean King]

Acht, you know what they are right. We are too small, too poor and too stupid. I might not get my state pension so I've totally shat it and I am now a firm NO.

All this in spite of the fact that I haven't been convinced I will ever see it without any Indy vote win for years now anyway given how it continues to rise. Best pension advice I was ever given was to plan as if you won't ever see it, if you do, treat it as a bonus but set up your own pension funds to be able to retire without it.

[Dawson Park Boy]

1 minute ago, strichener said:

I'll have whatever you're smoking.  Why would Scotland pay out significant sums from revenues for liabilities accrued by the UK?  You appear to keep missing the point that the UK already have these liabilities regardless of what happens with Independence.

Sorry, you are missing the point.

The individual is building up entitlement and if they are Scottish residents the liability is with the SG government immediately on separation.

As to whether the SG will be able to afford to pay will be dependent on the number of  taxpayers, and especially higher rated taxpayers they have on the books post independence.

[Left Back]

4 minutes ago, strichener said:

I'll have whatever you're smoking.  Why would Scotland pay out significant sums from revenues for liabilities accrued by the UK?  You appear to keep missing the point that the UK already have these liabilities regardless of what happens with Independence.

So to go back to the EU point someone made earlier.  Are you suggesting the UK should have just walked away and not contributed towards future EU pension liability.  Those people were employed by the EU, who promised to pay them a pension so the liability is all theirs.

[williemillersmoustache]

I mean how will we even be able to play Her Majesty's British football now that the Lionesses have brought it home? 

 

[git-intae-thum]

2 minutes ago, Left Back said:

So to go back to the EU point someone made earlier.  Are you suggesting the UK should have just walked away and not contributed towards future EU pension liability.  Those people were employed by the EU, who promised to pay them a pension so the liability is all theirs.

....swap it around a little bit...... "Those people were employed by the UK, who promised to pay them a pension so the liability is all theirs." .......and you may  have finally got to the point.

The UK owns a future liability to current contributors.

The exact nature and sum of those liabilities to people in Scotland will be the subject of a trade.

 

[git-intae-thum]

11 minutes ago, Dawson Park Boy said:

Sorry, you are missing the point.

The individual is building up entitlement and if they are Scottish residents the liability is with the SG government immediately on separation.

As to whether the SG will be able to afford to pay will be dependent on the number of  taxpayers, and especially higher rated taxpayers they have on the books post independence.

Again...over simplified codswallop.

[Left Back]

3 minutes ago, git-intae-thum said:

....swap it around a little bit...... "Those people were employed by the UK, who promised to pay them a pension so the liability is all theirs." .......and you may  have finally got to the point.

The UK owns a future liability to current contributors.

The exact nature and sum of those liabilities to people in Scotland will be the subject of a trade.

 

I think it’s you thats missing the point.  In the example above replace the EU with the UK and replace the UK with Scotland.

Scotland votes to leave then Scotland funds its share of the pension liabilities the UK accrued while Scotland was part of the UK, in the same way the UK funded its share of the pension liabilities the EU accrued while the UK was part of the EU.

[sophia]

44 minutes ago, Dawson Park Boy said:

Sorry, you are missing the point.

The individual is building up entitlement and if they are Scottish residents the liability is with the SG government immediately on separation.

As to whether the SG will be able to afford to pay will be dependent on the number of  taxpayers, and especially higher rated taxpayers they have on the books post independence.

Would you clarify when this is for me please?

Is it the morning after the vote?

After the rangers fans stop protesting in George Square?

Or at the conclusion of negotiations?

Does the UK continue to pay dues to the EU many years after Farage proclaimed "independence day"?

[strichener]

1 hour ago, Dawson Park Boy said:

Sorry, you are missing the point.

The individual is building up entitlement and if they are Scottish residents the liability is with the SG government immediately on separation.

As to whether the SG will be able to afford to pay will be dependent on the number of  taxpayers, and especially higher rated taxpayers they have on the books post independence.

I am sorry, I don't think I am missing the point.  I have paid NI for over 30 years to the UK Exchequer, I therefore don't expect France to pay my pension.

The point that you are missing is the UK NI payments entitle you to a UK pension, regardless of where you live.