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When will indyref2 happen?


Colkitto

Indyref2  

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1 hour ago, Albus Bulbasaur said:

Lmao no it wouldn't no matter how you and Nicola try and spin a general election. We would be voting for MPs to serve us at Westminster.

What's it going to say on your ballot? 

I see John Swinney has said that a majority of seats would lead to starting the process (whatever that actually means) so that's 30MPs needed. It's actually kinda sad to see them going out like this. 

 

Well, that’s my take on it anyway. Don’t see how you can’t see that. If the majority vote for a party that have clearly stated they are standing on the single issue of independence, that’s clear proof that the majority want independence.

However, I have sympathy with those who are in favour of the Union, given we’ve had a result in 2014 in favour of the staying part of the UK. 8 years isn’t a long time, but a lot has happened in 8 years. 10 years by the time 2024 comes, but still.

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1 hour ago, joozy said:

It used to be the SNP's line that they wanted polls to show 60% support for independence over a sustained period before having another referendum (Herald link).

I think that was a sensible position to take as well, primarily because a result of that magnitude would be utterly decisive.

For reasons best known to themselves, the SNP have decided they can't wait for the polls.

My fear is we get another vote and the result is still in that 55-45 band for one side or the other and we never break free of the potential for a neverendum cycle where one side tries to reverse the decision. We need a result which is decisive and 60% for one side IMO gives us that. And again IMO the SNP shouldn't be going near another referendum until they see that happening in the polls or 2030, whichever comes first.

That however is different from the debate about who should have the power to decide when the vote should be. That should be the voters, not WM and they've clearly said it should be Scotland's remit through Holyrood. No reasonable person can argue against that.

Edited by oaksoft
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4 hours ago, KingRocketman II said:

it wasn't off the cuff I agree, but neither is it enshrined in legislation. You saying the comment was used as a "political tool" is subjective - as for whether it can be "undone", well it depends from what. And of course the SNP can level criticism when say the Tories throw it back at them because they can point out the sheer hypocrisy of their stance. 

To many the comment is not a big deal particularly in view of the subsequent elections and average political life-spans of politicians. The comment is a big deal to you, fair enough. 

Tbh, I agree with most of that.  The one thing that I disagree with is whether it was used as a political tool or not.  If it wasn't used as a political tool to get people involved as perhaps their only chance to vote on Independence then what was it?  Bearing in mind that it was part of a pre-prepared speech given at the SNP conference.

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49 minutes ago, oaksoft said:

I think that was a sensible position to take as well, primarily because a result of that magnitude would be utterly decisive.

For reasons best known to themselves, the SNP have decided they can't wait for the polls.

My fear is we get another vote and the result is still in that 55-45 band for one side or the other and we never break free of the potential for a neverendum cycle where one side tries to reverse the decision. We need a result which is decisive and 60% for one side IMO gives us that. And again IMO the SNP shouldn't be going near another referendum until they see that happening in the polls or 2030, whichever comes first.

That however is different from the debate about who should have the power to decide when the vote should be. That should be the voters, not WM and they've clearly said it should be Scotland's remit through Holyrood. No reasonable person can argue against that.

I'd say the opposite, that it was a stupid thing to say at the time. Opinion polls aren't elections or referendums (referenda?) for good reason. Not only are they inaccurate, they're sometimes not impartial either.

YouGov Forced To Deny Suppressing Poll Because It Was 'Too Positive' For Labour

Government policy should be based on the programmes that parties have successfully put to the electorate in proper elections, not justified by opinion polls.

I will say the 60% thing is maybe something the SNP should have kept to themselves as a sensible bit of internal strategy. I don't buy this 'but we started on X% last time' argument. We've been actively debating independence for a decade now and the don't knows are 100% folk who are going to vote no but feel a bit ashamed about voting against their own independence. The Yes side have some significant ground to make up and October 2023 is a big gamble, imo.

If I was one of these staunch unionists greeting about the SNP all day every day, I'd want the UK government to agree to this.

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i think the opposite I think this time it will be relatively easy for Yes to win. That deosnt mean it wont take a lot of hard work and reaching out to all voters. I just think the odds are so stacked in Yes favour with Brexit, a particulary unpleasent tory party, the most unpopular leader since thatcher in Scotland and if its true the fact that a lot of nationalists seem to think the younger generations are massively pro indy. All that to me indicates a walk in the park with a reasonably competent campaign. 

 

The hardest bit will be getting the referendum

Edited by BigDoddyKane
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30 minutes ago, BigDoddyKane said:

i think the opposite I think this time it will be relatively easy for Yes to win. That deosnt mean it wont take a lot of hard work and reaching out to all voters. I just think the odds are so stacked in Yes favour with Brexit, a particulary unpleasent tory party, the most unpopular leader since thatcher in Scotland and if its true the fact that a lot of nationalists seem to think the younger generations are massively pro indy. All that to me indicates a walk in the park with a reasonably competent campaign. 

 

The hardest bit will be getting the referendum

The next hardest bit will be getting the younger pro-Indy voters to get off their arses and vote.

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2 minutes ago, Granny Danger said:

The next hardest bit will be getting the younger pro-Indy voters to get off their arses and vote.

Will it though? It'll be more those undecided people that need convincing more like. 

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4 minutes ago, Granny Danger said:

The next hardest bit will be getting the younger pro-Indy voters to get off their arses and vote.

Not if the energy shown on the campaign trail last time around is anything to go by. Here's hoping it carries on.

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11 minutes ago, Stellaboz said:

Will it though? It'll be more those undecided people that need convincing more like. 

 

8 minutes ago, The Skelpit Lug said:

Not if the energy shown on the campaign trail last time around is anything to go by. Here's hoping it carries on.

At the time of IndyRef I polls suggested young folk favoured Independence but the post polling analysis below shows a different story.  So the pro-Indy youth didn’t bother getting off their arses last time around.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-glasgow-west-34283948

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As I originally pointed out, Blair MacDougal was lying when he said it was an SNP march. That remains a fact.
The marchers were addressed by .members of various political parties & organisations, including one SNP politician. 
I'm pretty sure that Mankyjaiket & his rent-a-mob will have addressed the crowd too. Their blood & soil British Nationalism is probably the closest equivalent to the arseholes in the Scottish Resistance. I've condemned both groups before, and am happy to do so again.
McDougall has a history of being economical with the truth when it comes to these sorts of events.
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I strongly suspect your assessment of ‘mankyjaiket’ will be incorrect.
I know how often Unionists are demonised with exaggerations, falsehoods and assumptions from the tartan echo-chamber.
It's not a lie - he's a holocaust denier.
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27 minutes ago, DeeTillEhDeh said:
On 26/06/2022 at 22:49, Duries Air Freshener said:

I strongly suspect your assessment of ‘mankyjaiket’ will be incorrect.
I know how often Unionists are demonised with exaggerations, falsehoods and assumptions from the tartan echo-chamber.

It's not a lie - he's a holocaust denier.

I very much doubt that.

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5 hours ago, Scary Bear said:

Well, that’s my take on it anyway. Don’t see how you can’t see that. If the majority vote for a party that have clearly stated they are standing on the single issue of independence, that’s clear proof that the majority want independence.

However, I have sympathy with those who are in favour of the Union, given we’ve had a result in 2014 in favour of the staying part of the UK. 8 years isn’t a long time, but a lot has happened in 8 years. 10 years by the time 2024 comes, but still.

One thing that hasn't happened in 8 years is more than a handful of opinion polls showing a lead for Yes. 

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3 minutes ago, sparky88 said:

One thing that hasn't happened in 8 years is more than a handful of opinion polls showing a lead for Yes. 

How many opinion polls showed a lead for “Leave” in the eight years prior to 2016?

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16 minutes ago, DeeTillEhDeh said:

Imagine if the EU had told the UK it couldn't have referendum unless the EU agreed to it?
 

That would be just like the EU, the evil b*****ds, stealing sovereignty from members - not like the glorious and respectful British unio…

 

 

oh.7879611E-FA63-48D6-AEE3-E5D02ED956DC.gif.39f3ddd8dc2ff0dc7c8ea81c6612f9ee.gif

 

Edited by Antlion
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1 minute ago, DeeTillEhDeh said:

DRoss playing the "divisive referendum" klaxon - maybe we shouldn't bother with elections either as they are divisive as well?
 

Is this the same Dross who campaigned to divide the UK from the EU during a divisive referendum he supported because his divisive master told him to? That Dross?

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8 hours ago, Scary Bear said:

 

However, it would be confirmation that the majority of people in Scotland want independence. Then when the (reckless) Toaries refuse a Section 30 order it has them refusing to acknowledge the will of the Scottish people to be an independent nation. 

 

It wouldn’t be confirmation at all. There are many folk who don’t vote in general elections because they don’t want to vote for any of the parties. Because it’s first past the post, many seats have very limited options standing.

Just because the SNP want to make it a single issue vote doesn’t make it so.

 

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