When will indyref2 happen?

[Zern]

6 hours ago, sparky88 said:

A wildcat referendum would be like Christmas for unionism. 

What is a wildcat referendum?

Is it one that is ruled legal by Supreme Court yet opposed by Tory Government?

Or is one that is held in contravention of a Supreme Court ruling?

[Zern]

3 minutes ago, Big Rider said:

The UK and Great Britain are not the same and are therefore not one nation.

They always forget about Gibraltar too, they are an afterthought in these discussions.

[Kenneth840]

1 hour ago, Zern said:

They do not possess the authority to rule on that. If it is ruled legal its legal. They would be the ones who committing an offense.

I do not know why, if i where to hazard a guess it would be that the law is written under the assumption that any referendum would be on matters solely within Scotland.

So the Court of Session will rule it legal then, is that what you are saying?  If so I am all for that. Instead of waiting until after the recess the Scottish Government should get the Independence referendum bill passed sharply before they go into recess.  If they are expecting a challenge by the UKG then the quicker it is resolved the better.  The Martin Keatings case tried to do this but it was ruled "Hypothetical".  If the date is set, then I can't see how it could be ruled hypothetical anymore. 

I am just trying to work out what kind of referendum Scotland is meant to be having.  If what I fear is a referendum that has no legally binding force to it I stuggle to see the benefit.  What do you think of this article?

https://robinmcalpine.org/are-we-in-a-cohen-brothers-movie

He has huge doubts whether an Independence referendum can be held.  There are Pro Indy, Neutral and Unionist opinions all agreeing that Holyrood doesn't have the competency to hold a referendum. 

Quote

Why do I think this? As I’ve pointed out before, nothing the Scottish Government says ever lacks total self certainty and yes, I get wobbles myself when they say things that seem to contradict the evidence but say it like they know better. So perhaps I’m wrong, but until I see otherwise I’m going to stick with the available evidence.

Quote

And if that is true, the SNP membership and the wider movement have some very legitimate questions to ask about the honesty or otherwise of what we’re being promised. At the moment the Scottish Government says work to find a legal path is ‘ongoing’ – which to my mind means they should not be offering ‘no ifs, no buts’ guarantees to anyone.

Quote

This is all absolutely crucial. My view has been for quite a while now that the First Minister’s strategy is to introduce legislation, invite a long court battle over its legality, lose and then grandstand about the injustice of it either to buy some more time or to create a window for a dignified exit.

Quote

And here’s the thing – from pro-indy sympathisers like Andrew Tickell or Aileen McHarg via people who are fundamentally positive about referendums like Matt Qvorturp to people who aren’t independence supporters but favour a democratic settlement like Ciaran Martin to someone like  David Torrance who has been constitutionally neutral since leaving journalism to anti-indy experts like Adam Tompkins, not a single one thinks it likely the SNP will win a legal challenge over a referendum.

Quote

There are therefore two simple tests I wish to set for the SNP leadership. First, show us a credible bill and get it into law before you ask the independence movement to start campaigning. That is surely the very least we can except after seven years of being told it is ‘just round the corner’.

Quote

And second, make it very clear to all that if you fail to get a credible referendum bill into law in time to hold a vote in 2023 you will resign. This should go without saying but I’m not sure it does.

Until then the only way I can make sense of any of what is going on is to follow the available evidence. And when I do I’m back in a Cohen Brother movie again, being promised that the cheque is in the post and that this time it won’t bounce…

 

[oldbitterandgrumpy]

1 hour ago, Big Rider said:

The UK and Great Britain are not the same and are therefore not one nation.

I might have posted this before, but it’s staggering how many Tory’s don’t know the difference between UK and GB. 

[MONKMAN]

Scotland is politically and culturally isolated from the rest of the UK, so it makes perfect sense that we'd vote in a government on a manifesto pledge of holding a referendum.

[Jeff Venom]

I might have posted this before, but it’s staggering how many Tory’s don’t know the difference between UK and GB. 

I dunno, I think it's bang on the money.

[Zern]

37 minutes ago, Kenneth840 said:

So the Court of Session will rule it legal then, is that what you are saying?  If so I am all for that. Instead of waiting until after the recess the Scottish Government should get the Independence referendum bill passed sharply before they go into recess.  If they are expecting a challenge by the UKG then the quicker it is resolved the better.  The Martin Keatings case tried to do this but it was ruled "Hypothetical".  If the date is set, then I can't see how it could be ruled hypothetical anymore.

That is one of the three outcomes i outlined. Where the referendum is contested but ruled legal whilst the current UK government opposes. What is unclear to me is whether that is what is meant by a 'Wildcat' referendum. To my mind a wildcat referendum would be a situation where a referendum is held even if ruled illegal.

Quote

I am just trying to work out what kind of referendum Scotland is meant to be having.  If what I fear is a referendum that has no legally binding force to it I stuggle to see the benefit.

A non-binding referendum would gauge support for independence and be politically influential for the winning side. That is not undesireable for independence supporters to get movement on this issue. It becomes public record.

Quote

 

What do you think of this article?

https://robinmcalpine.org/are-we-in-a-cohen-brothers-movie

He has huge doubts whether an Independence referendum can be held.  There are Pro Indy, Neutral and Unionist opinions all agreeing that Holyrood doesn't have the competency to hold a referendum. 

 

It is well written, but if you are not fan of Cohen Brothers movies you might fail to get some of the references. The writer makes some good observations, but i feel they are wrong when they assume that a legal referendum, absent a section 30, would result in a wholesale boycott by unionist supporters. That is far from established as legality would confer legitimacy to the SNP/Green's legislation. It would be UK law after all.

The Tories may continue to oppose in the face of a decision that allows the referendum to occur, but Labour and Lib Dems may well change their position as they distinguish themselves from the less than law-abiding party.

If i recall correctly, the SNP introduced legislation to hold a referendum back in 2010. It failed to pass. But was not contested on legal grounds.

[Kenneth840]

40 minutes ago, Zern said:

That is one of the three outcomes i outlined. Where the referendum is contested but ruled legal whilst the current UK government opposes. What is unclear to me is whether that is what is meant by a 'Wildcat' referendum. To my mind a wildcat referendum would be a situation where a referendum is held even if ruled illegal.

A non-binding referendum would gauge support for independence and be politically influential for the winning side. That is not undesireable for independence supporters to get movement on this issue. It becomes public record.

It is well written, but if you are not fan of Cohen Brothers movies you might fail to get some of the references. The writer makes some good observations, but i feel they are wrong when they assume that a legal referendum, absent a section 30, would result in a wholesale boycott by unionist supporters. That is far from established as legality would confer legitimacy to the SNP/Green's legislation. It would be UK law after all.

The Tories may continue to oppose in the face of a decision that allows the referendum to occur, but Labour and Lib Dems may well change their position as they distinguish themselves from the less than law-abiding party.

If i recall correctly, the SNP introduced legislation to hold a referendum back in 2010. It failed to pass. But was not contested on legal grounds.

Good reply.  

 

[carpetmonster]

Possibly nitpicky, but filmmakers Joel and Ethan are the COEN, rather than Cohen, brothers, so when McAlpine can’t be arsed checking something as basic as that before he emblazons it as his headline, it doesn’t fill me with confidence as to the soundness of what comes after. 

[Albus Bulbasaur]

Finally, the detail and well thought out strategy we've been waiting for.

 

[BFTD]

17 hours ago, carpetmonster said:

Possibly nitpicky, but filmmakers Joel and Ethan are the COEN, rather than Cohen, brothers, so when McAlpine can’t be arsed checking something as basic as that before he emblazons it as his headline, it doesn’t fill me with confidence as to the soundness of what comes after. 

We all make mistakes. That's how Bill Murray ended up in the live-action Garfield film.

[sparky88]

21 hours ago, Zern said:

What is a wildcat referendum?

Is it one that is ruled legal by Supreme Court yet opposed by Tory Government?

Or is one that is held in contravention of a Supreme Court ruling?

Like what happened in Catalonia in 2017. 

[Zern]

4 minutes ago, sparky88 said:

Like what happened in Catalonia in 2017. 

So one that was held despite being ruled illegal. Okay.

So if it is ruled legal, we get our referendum and everyone's happy.

[lichtgilphead]

1 hour ago, Albus Bulbasaur said:

Finally, the detail and well thought out strategy we've been waiting for.

 

What SNP march today?

I believe AUOB held a march yesterday, but as we all know, AOUB are not the SNP.

[BigDoddyKane]

Independence is neither AOUB, Alba or SNP. Plenty independence voters who are not in any party or group

Edited June 26, 2022 by BigDoddyKane

[Zern]

Not much blood or soil in that. Bruce is the guy standing beside him, Scotland is where he is and freedom is pretty all-inclusive.

To be fair,  Bruce does appear to have put a lot of effort into his costume.

Much more benign than some the sectarian shite that we see regularly. Too regularly. A certain cultish band of Willy worshippers are rather infamous for their uncensored material.

[The_Kincardine]

3 hours ago, Albus Bulbasaur said:

Finally, the detail and well thought out strategy we've been waiting for.

 

So the nationalists held a rally by an ancient battlefield.  They recruited members of the Scottish Resistance to dress up as soldiers and wave weapons around.  Yet they try and claim this is civic nationalism?  My arse.  It's as enthonationalist a movement as it's possible to be.

Of course, @lichtgilpheadwill say, "we all know, AOUB are not the SNP" but right after the warm-up act we had senior SNP politician Alyn Smith take the stage.  His opening remarks?

“We need to close ranks!” and “I will work with anyone… towards winning our country’s freedom.”

As I keep saying, partitioning Britain is all to do with promoting Scottish exceptionalism and drawing a cultural distinction between 'them' and 'us'.  It's the nasty politics of identity and division.

Edited June 26, 2022 by The_Kincardine

[Benjamin_Nevis]

3 minutes ago, The_Kincardine said:

So the nationalists held a rally by an ancient battlefield.  They recruited members of the Scottish Resistance to dress up as soldiers and wave weapons around.  Yet they try and claim this is civic nationalism?  My arse.  It's as enthonationalist a movement as it's possible to be.

Of course, @lichtgilpheadwill say, "we all know, AOUB are not the SNP" but right after the warm-up act we had senior SNP politician Alyn Smith take the stage.  His opening remarks?

“We need to close ranks!” and “I will work with anyone… towards winning our country’s freedom.”

As I keep saying, partitioning Britain is all to do with promoting Scottish exceptionalism and drawing a cultural distinction between 'them' and 'us'.  It's the nasty politics of identity and division.

This from an utter loser who was weirdly crying about "Shinners" in the SNP ranks the other day 

You are, always have been, and always will be a thoroughly bitter, self-loathing bigoted arsehole. 

[razamanaz]

3 hours ago, Albus Bulbasaur said:

Finally, the detail and well thought out strategy we've been waiting for.

 

Is that like the business strategy sketch - Sports Socks, 3 for a pound

[Granny Danger]

There’s times that reading this thread raises a smile just thinking how seething the roasters are at the SNP’s ongoing popularity.