When will indyref2 happen?

[Soapy FFC]

1 hour ago, Blue Brazil Forever said:

 

I believe that although EU resident nationals (and l6 year olds ) can vote,  my son and daughter and grandson who are Scottish but non resident  and many others can vote in general elections but not Scottish elections.  The franchise has been fixed and corrupted to achieve a single aim.

That's not a condition specific to Scottish Elections, it's the same for Welsh and NI elections, you need to be resident to vote.

The ability for non-residents to vote in UK elections was introduced by the Tories in 1985 where you could vote up to 5 years after you left the UK. The Tories increased this to 20 years in 1989, Labour cut it to 15 years in 2002, and the current Tory govt intends to remove the time limit completely meaning you could live abroad for over 40 years but still vote in a UK election. Given the Tories seem to always want to increase the number of overseas voters, it would appear to me they see the ex-pats as a natural Tory voter. But then again, it's only the SNP that try to fix the franchise.

[J_Stewart]

 
I have enough gray upstairs not to swallow whole your nataganda bus promotions, sorry son. 

Woah, woah, fucking woah. There’s been like 30 posts since this and not one of them - let alone all of them - were taking the piss out of just how bad “nataganda” is. Shame on you all. That’s even worse than Steiner’s attempts at trolling. Maybe the single worst piece of patter in the history of this sub-forum, and that is quite something considering how much of a bin fire it generally is.

Kenneth has one billion percent tried to invoke an article of the Magna Carta before.

[Zern]

3 hours ago, Scott Steiner said:

If you think there's going to be a referendum in 2023 then you're in for a shock.

It won't be that shocking it is almost identical to the previous referendum.

Very familiar ground.

We get to watch this unfold.

[Scott Steiner]

17 minutes ago, Zern said:

It won't be that shocking it is almost identical to the previous referendum.

Very familiar ground.

We get to watch this unfold.

Fancy a wager?

[betting competition]

Today decisions has hurt the independence movement. I know quite a few that have quit the SNP today.

[Granny Danger]

26 minutes ago, betting competition said:

Today decisions has hurt the independence movement. I know quite a few that have quit the SNP today.

I reckon any impact it will be absolutely minimal.

[Dunfermline Don]

Today decisions has hurt the independence movement. I know quite a few that have quit the SNP today.

Remember that one of the best ways to get rid of the SNP is to have independence.
I would fully expect them to splinter into two or three different parties after Independence.

[Soapy FFC]

3 minutes ago, Dunfermline Don said:

Remember that one of the best ways to get rid of the SNP is to have independence.
I would fully expect them to splinter into two or three different parties after Independence.

Correct. You would then have a fully independent Labour and Conservative as well, completely detached from London, so they would get voters back. The SNP are just the vehicle to independence, not the future government.

[Guest Bob Mahelp]

47 minutes ago, betting competition said:

Today decisions has hurt the independence movement. I know quite a few that have quit the SNP today.

You're confusing the SNP with the independence movement. They're two different things. 

Lots of people are angry (justifiably) with today's decisions, and some will leave the SNP because of today. But if you think that if there's a referendum in a few years time that these people would vote 'No' because they couldn't get to a football game on January 2nd, 2022, then I suggest that's not joined up thinking. 

 

 

[Ivo den Bieman]

Come off it, the SNP have absolutely no intention of holding a referendum anytime soon. Having been in power in some form since 2007 they've got their feet nicely under the table of devolved government and why would they rock that boat when they are not under (too much) pressure to deliver?

Alba moon howlers and the noisy anti-vaxx lot may seem significant on twitter but they are not, really. If it is true that people really have left the SNP today over restrictions on football then I'd question the level of their original commitment that made them join the party.

The SNP are neatly in the back pocket of corporate lobbyists and Capital will be happy for them to stay exactly where they are as a competent administrator of late neoliberalism. No progress will be made until Covid is better managed which unfortunately looks a way off.

[Scott Steiner]

13 minutes ago, Ivo den Bieman said:

Come off it, the SNP have absolutely no intention of holding a referendum anytime soon. Having been in power in some form since 2007 they've got their feet nicely under the table of devolved government and why would they rock that boat when they are not under (too much) pressure to deliver?

Alba moon howlers and the noisy anti-vaxx lot may seem significant on twitter but they are not, really. If it is true that people really have left the SNP today over restrictions on football then I'd question the level of their original commitment that made them join the party.

The SNP are neatly in the back pocket of corporate lobbyists and Capital will be happy for them to stay exactly where they are as a competent administrator of late neoliberalism. No progress will be made until Covid is better managed which unfortunately looks a way off.

As a Unionist, I agree with this.  I agree that the SNP have no intention of holding a referendum because of the reasons you mention as well as the fact that the Tories would just say no.  It's all very well saying that there's a mandate due to the pro-Indy majority at Holyrood, but the Tories have a mandate to say No at Westminster too, and it's them that decides.

In my opinion you're in a Catch 22 situation.  Having followed Sturgeon's moves since she took over from Salmond, she's never really taken any firm steps to achieve independence.  To me she just seems all talk.

If she leaves though, then who can take over that has such a broad appeal?  As much as she's getting slagged off on forums and twitter, she's still an incredibly popular and competent politician.  She has an answer for everything.. the cow!

Either the SNP are too comfy as you say, or some of them might even be in the pockets of the State itself.

[Stellaboz]

Correct. You would then have a fully independent Labour and Conservative as well, completely detached from London, so they would get voters back. The SNP are just the vehicle to independence, not the future government.

Said this from day one.

Come off it, the SNP have absolutely no intention of holding a referendum anytime soon. Having been in power in some form since 2007 they've got their feet nicely under the table of devolved government and why would they rock that boat when they are not under (too much) pressure to deliver?
Alba moon howlers and the noisy anti-vaxx lot may seem significant on twitter but they are not, really. If it is true that people really have left the SNP today over restrictions on football then I'd question the level of their original commitment that made them join the party.
The SNP are neatly in the back pocket of corporate lobbyists and Capital will be happy for them to stay exactly where they are as a competent administrator of late neoliberalism. No progress will be made until Covid is better managed which unfortunately looks a way off.

If it wasn't for Covid, I reckon we'd have one at least announced already.

[BFTD]

36 minutes ago, Soapy FFC said:

Correct. You would then have a fully independent Labour and Conservative as well, completely detached from London, so they would get voters back. The SNP are just the vehicle to independence, not the future government.

I'd have thought you'd still have a Tory party tied to Westminster who'd be campaigning to rejoin the glorious union. If you thought 'SNP Bad' was funny, 'Westminister would never let this happen' would bring the house down.

f**k knows what Labour would do. Total paralysis as they struggled to work out why they exist, probably.

[Ivo den Bieman]

In the midst of a global pandemic and climate breakdown it all seems a bit last decade, to be honest. I will still vote Yes when I am presented with a chance to, but the propsects for IndyRef2 aren't exactly propitious for the foreseeable future.

I think your analysis re: the Tories holding the Trump cards (pun intended) is a bit simplistic, but this isn't really a Tory government, more a cretinous UKIP government with some Hungarian popuilist gangsterism thrown in for good measure. Scotland could and should hold a second referendum but 1. there's presently no sensible opportunity window to do so ii. even when there is (probably around 2024/5 when this pandemic has receded to a point where we're not talking about it every bloody day) this Westminster government are crooked, corrupt and do not give one single f**k about democracy.

Hard to see where that leaves us as with an unwritten constiution and a Supreme Court with a Westminster loyalty baked in the SNP have few if any cards to play.

[DeeTillEhDeh]

Today decisions has hurt the independence movement. I know quite a few that have quit the SNP today.

Today's decisions make me more determined to have independence to get rid of the SNP.

[Granny Danger]

21 minutes ago, DeeTillEhDeh said:

1 hour ago, betting competition said:

Today decisions has hurt the independence movement. I know quite a few that have quit the SNP today.

Today's decisions make me more determined to have independence to get rid of the SNP.

What do you think the most likely/only vehicle is for Independence?

[Meldrew]

1 hour ago, betting competition said:

Today decisions has hurt the independence movement. I know quite a few that have quit the SNP today.

are you serious ? a bunch of entitled football fans is not going to make even a small dent, fuckin hell, talk about delusions of grandeur, i thought you guys just overrated the bang average players that turn out for the national team

[HeartsOfficialMoaner]

2 minutes ago, Granny Danger said:

What do you think the most likely/only vehicle is for Independence?

Familiarity/Normality. SNP in power for 25 years and everyone is used to the situation and it is not some sort of revolution or crazy/risky idea. It's just normal. It's how it is anyway. 2032.

[Guest Bob Mahelp]

1 hour ago, Ivo den Bieman said:

Come off it, the SNP have absolutely no intention of holding a referendum anytime soon. Having been in power in some form since 2007 they've got their feet nicely under the table of devolved government and why would they rock that boat when they are not under (too much) pressure to deliver?

Alba moon howlers and the noisy anti-vaxx lot may seem significant on twitter but they are not, really. If it is true that people really have left the SNP today over restrictions on football then I'd question the level of their original commitment that made them join the party.

The SNP are neatly in the back pocket of corporate lobbyists and Capital will be happy for them to stay exactly where they are as a competent administrator of late neoliberalism. No progress will be made until Covid is better managed which unfortunately looks a way off.

I've long said on here that under any normal set of circumstances, the SNP need a spell in opposition. No government anywhere worldwide, can stay in power for 14+ years without becoming stale. 

They need to re-invent themselves to a certain extent. A change of focus away from certain issues and a renewed focus on the bigger picture. 

Sadly, the SNP has went from the relatively liberal, progressive party it was 15 years ago, to become a party obsessed with government control and the kind of loony left-wing infighting that helped destroy Labour. 

As strongly as I believe that Nicola Sturgeon is the UK's most competent politician, the fact remains that in order to move forward a change of leadership at the top is badly needed. 

The reality is though that there is no opposition to the SNP in Scotland, so it's unlikely they'll lose power any time in the next decade. It wouldn't surprise me though if they slipped back to being a minority government again as they were in 2007, and having to find concensus with other parties to get policy through. 

It may not be a bad thing. 

 

 

[Grant228]

1 hour ago, Dunfermline Don said:

Remember that one of the best ways to get rid of the SNP is to have independence.
I would fully expect them to splinter into two or three different parties after Independence.

Probably correct. 

 

However, if you go with the thinking that for another referendum to be called then we need a majority snp government then today has undoubtedly hurt it, check just the amount of people on this forum who have cancelled there membership, on a personal level I'm not voting for them anymore. Very much straw that broke the camels back but I'm absolutely sick of them, have absolutely no confidence or faith that Sturgeon will get us any closer to holding a referendum, and the constant shitting on football fans has got old.