Zern Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 Laws regarding the UK don't apply to the UK. Aye right so. In other UK news. May this year will see the elections to the Northern Ireland Assembly. Current polling on the question of a border referendum shows those in favour of a vote make up the largest percentage of the population. Albeit marginally. The polling on parties predicts Sinn Féin to become the largest party by representatives. The question of a border poll on Irish re-unification has gone from the abstract to the concrete as it is now under active consideration. What would public support over a sustainable period look like? In 2021 Scotland again favoured independence representatives by a majority. If Sinn Féin were to begin as a minority administration and bring in some reforms to the franchise (in line with another part of the UK) then we could see a majority returned that would absolutely call for a vote. As catered for by UK law. Seem to me that there is case to be made, under UK law, that Scotland meets all the requirements for such a border poll. Indeed we did. Time for another. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott Steiner Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 18 minutes ago, Zern said: Laws regarding the UK don't apply to the UK. Aye right so. In other UK news. May this year will see the elections to the Northern Ireland Assembly. Current polling on the question of a border referendum shows those in favour of a vote make up the largest percentage of the population. Albeit marginally. The polling on parties predicts Sinn Féin to become the largest party by representatives. The question of a border poll on Irish re-unification has gone from the abstract to the concrete as it is now under active consideration. What would public support over a sustainable period look like? In 2021 Scotland again favoured independence representatives by a majority. If Sinn Féin were to begin as a minority administration and bring in some reforms to the franchise (in line with another part of the UK) then we could see a majority returned that would absolutely call for a vote. As catered for by UK law. Seem to me that there is case to be made, under UK law, that Scotland meets all the requirements for such a border poll. Indeed we did. Time for another. Why would it apply to the rest of the UK when it was made specifically as part of a Northern Ireland peace deal though? I'd be interested to see where you get the idea that most of NI wants a border poll. Admittedly I could be wrong, but I don't think they do. They certainly don't want a United Ireland, not according to opinion polling anyway. None of the Unionist Parties nor Alliance support a border poll. For public support over a sustainable period I'd say you'd have to have at least a 10% gap in favour of independence for over a year or something, when no significant events have taken place. I.e. it's the obvious settled will of the Scottish people and not just a knee-jerk bounce. And I thank you for debating reasonably unlike the others. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NotThePars Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 A simple majority of MSPs legislating for a referendum is all it should take. Every rebuttal to this from Tories starts from the simple fact that they're worried they would lose a second referendum and no amount of intellectual obfuscation changes that simple fact. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Jedi Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 (edited) What 'if' the opinion poll trend with Labour between 6-9% ahead continues in UK terms? The scales have finally fallen from many eyes in England over the Tories with the Lockdown parties being the straw which broke the camels back. 'If' Labour can cement the poll lead there is a chance now, that they can form a govt after the next GE, probably in 2 years time, albeit might need the Libs seats as well. A Lab govt, presuming that the SNP won around 55 seats at the GE, would be far more likely to grant a Ref, possibly with a 3rd option question in there of FFA. A qualification would be SNP support of a Lab Queens Speech. Overall, seems the best bet for a Ref as the Tories will simply continue to say 'no' between now and 2023/4. Edited December 31, 2021 by Jedi 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Granny Danger Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 21 minutes ago, Jedi said: What 'if' the opinion poll trend with Labour between 6-9% ahead continues in UK terms? The scales have finally fallen from many eyes in England over the Tories with the Lockdown parties being the straw which broke the camels back. 'If' Labour can cement the poll lead there is a chance now, that they can form a govt after the next GE, probably in 2 years time, albeit might need the Libs seats as well. A Lab govt, presuming that the SNP won around 55 seats at the GE, would be far more likely to grant a Ref, possibly with a 3rd option question in there of FFA. A qualification would be SNP support of a Lab Queens Speech. Overall, seems the best bet for a Ref as the Tories will simply continue to say 'no' between now and 2023/4. Only problem is that an Independent Scotland will mean a Tory majority in rUK is far more likely more often. -1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICTJohnboy Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 1 hour ago, Jedi said: Overall, seems the best bet for a Ref as the Tories will simply continue to say 'no' between now and 2023/4. And the more they say no, the more they increase support for a Yes vote, whenever it goes ahead. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Kincardine Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 1 hour ago, ICTJohnboy said: And the more they say no, the more they increase support for a Yes vote, whenever it goes ahead. Daft post, again, and IndyRef(x) is dead in the water. I have said since 2014 that the best thing the Nats can do is govern their way to independence and I maintain that position. Rather than heeding my advice what was the high water mark for Scottish independence? The chap tasked with Covid recover falling arse over tit on a scooter while he was being filmed: 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICTJohnboy Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 2 minutes ago, The_Kincardine said: Daft post, again, and IndyRef(x) is dead in the water. I have said since 2014 that the best thing the Nats can do is govern their way to independence and I maintain that position. Rather than heeding my advice what was the high water mark for Scottish independence? The chap tasked with Covid recover falling arse over tit on a scooter while he was being filmed: Your video's priceless! Shame about the rest of your post. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Kincardine Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 2 minutes ago, ICTJohnboy said: Your video's priceless! Shame about the rest of your post. So governing the way to independence is a poor idea? Not surprised that you take issue with it. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICTJohnboy Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 1 minute ago, The_Kincardine said: So governing the way to independence is a poor idea? Not surprised that you take issue with it. It's not a poor idea, but there is only so much a devolved government can do. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Kincardine Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 5 minutes ago, ICTJohnboy said: It's not a poor idea, but there is only so much a devolved government can do. That's the Nippy/Daft Wee Katie excuse. Scotland is astonishingly badly governed. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICTJohnboy Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 3 minutes ago, The_Kincardine said: That's the Nippy/Daft Wee Katie excuse. Scotland is astonishingly badly governed. I wouldn't dispute that, but the SNP, The Greens and Alba do have a common goal, and I'm confident they will deliver. Anyway it's after 8pm now, and you know what they say about drinking gin after 8pm. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Kincardine Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 2 minutes ago, ICTJohnboy said: I wouldn't dispute that, but the SNP, The Greens and Alba do have a common goal, and I'm confident they will deliver. Anyway it's after 8pm now, and you know what they say about drinking gin after 8pm. Oh ok so it's the gin patter is it? How sad. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICTJohnboy Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 2 minutes ago, The_Kincardine said: Oh ok so it's the gin patter is it? How sad. Not really, but have a good New Year, all the same. These days, New Year means more to you residents of England than it does to the Scots. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dawson Park Boy Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 1 hour ago, ICTJohnboy said: Not really, but have a good New Year, all the same. These days, New Year means more to you residents of England than it does to the Scots. Well, at least they’re being ALLOWED to celebrate it unlike our little tinpot dictatorship. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICTJohnboy Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 4 minutes ago, Dawson Park Boy said: Well, at least they’re being ALLOWED to celebrate it unlike our little tinpot dictatorship. Our little tin pot dictatorship is going by the science, rather that the extreme right of the Tory party, who Boris must obey. -1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Detournement Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Indyref2 is so unlikely now SNP officials are starting to talk about DevoMax. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NotThePars Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 8 minutes ago, Detournement said: Indyref2 is so unlikely now SNP officials are starting to talk about DevoMax. Will be funny when stopped clock David Jamieson calls this right 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Lambies Doos Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2022/0105/1272020-highest-ever-take-take-of-68-4bn-exchequer-returns/ 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Ferrino Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 2 minutes ago, John Lambies Doos said: https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2022/0105/1272020-highest-ever-take-take-of-68-4bn-exchequer-returns/ You can't buy a house if you're not allowed to even apply for a mortgage. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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