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When will indyref2 happen?


Colkitto

Indyref2  

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Laws regarding the UK don't apply to the UK. Aye right so.

In other UK news. May this year will see the elections to the Northern Ireland Assembly. Current polling on the question of a border referendum shows those in favour of a vote make up the largest percentage of the population. Albeit marginally. The polling on parties predicts Sinn Féin to become the largest party by representatives. The question of a border poll on Irish re-unification has gone from the abstract to the concrete as it is now under active consideration.

What would public support over a sustainable period look like?

In 2021 Scotland again favoured independence representatives by a majority. If Sinn Féin were to begin as a minority administration and bring in some reforms to the franchise (in line with another part of the UK) then we could see a majority returned that would absolutely call for a vote. As catered for by UK law.

Seem to me that there is case to be made, under UK law, that Scotland meets all the requirements for such a border poll. Indeed we did. Time for another.

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18 minutes ago, Zern said:

Laws regarding the UK don't apply to the UK. Aye right so.

In other UK news. May this year will see the elections to the Northern Ireland Assembly. Current polling on the question of a border referendum shows those in favour of a vote make up the largest percentage of the population. Albeit marginally. The polling on parties predicts Sinn Féin to become the largest party by representatives. The question of a border poll on Irish re-unification has gone from the abstract to the concrete as it is now under active consideration.

What would public support over a sustainable period look like?

In 2021 Scotland again favoured independence representatives by a majority. If Sinn Féin were to begin as a minority administration and bring in some reforms to the franchise (in line with another part of the UK) then we could see a majority returned that would absolutely call for a vote. As catered for by UK law.

Seem to me that there is case to be made, under UK law, that Scotland meets all the requirements for such a border poll. Indeed we did. Time for another.

Why would it apply to the rest of the UK when it was made specifically as part of a Northern Ireland peace deal though?

I'd be interested to see where you get the idea that most of NI wants a border poll.  Admittedly I could be wrong, but I don't think they do.  They certainly don't want a United Ireland, not according to opinion polling anyway.  None of the Unionist Parties nor Alliance support a border poll.

For public support over a sustainable period I'd say you'd have to have at least a 10% gap in favour of independence for over a year or something, when no significant events have taken place.  I.e. it's the obvious settled will of the Scottish people and not just a knee-jerk bounce.

And I thank you for debating reasonably unlike the others.

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A simple majority of MSPs legislating for a referendum is all it should take. Every rebuttal to this from Tories starts from the simple fact that they're worried they would lose a second referendum and no amount of intellectual obfuscation changes that simple fact.

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What 'if' the opinion poll trend with Labour between 6-9% ahead continues in UK terms? 

The scales have finally fallen from many eyes in England over the Tories with the Lockdown parties being the straw which broke the camels back.

'If' Labour can cement the poll lead there is a chance now, that they can form a govt after the next GE, probably in 2 years time, albeit might need the Libs seats as well.

A Lab govt, presuming that the SNP won around 55 seats at the GE, would be far more likely to grant a Ref, possibly with a 3rd option question in there of FFA. A qualification would be SNP support of a Lab Queens Speech.

Overall, seems the best bet for a Ref as the Tories will simply continue to say 'no' between now and 2023/4.

Edited by Jedi
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21 minutes ago, Jedi said:

What 'if' the opinion poll trend with Labour between 6-9% ahead continues in UK terms? 

The scales have finally fallen from many eyes in England over the Tories with the Lockdown parties being the straw which broke the camels back.

'If' Labour can cement the poll lead there is a chance now, that they can form a govt after the next GE, probably in 2 years time, albeit might need the Libs seats as well.

A Lab govt, presuming that the SNP won around 55 seats at the GE, would be far more likely to grant a Ref, possibly with a 3rd option question in there of FFA. A qualification would be SNP support of a Lab Queens Speech.

Overall, seems the best bet for a Ref as the Tories will simply continue to say 'no' between now and 2023/4.

Only problem is that an Independent Scotland will mean a Tory majority in rUK is far more likely more often.

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1 hour ago, ICTJohnboy said:

 

And the more they say no, the more they increase support for a Yes vote, whenever it goes ahead.

Daft post, again, and IndyRef(x) is dead in the water.

I have said since 2014  that the best thing the Nats can do is govern their way to independence and I maintain that position.

Rather than heeding my advice what was the high water mark for Scottish independence?  The chap tasked with Covid recover falling arse over tit on a scooter while he was being filmed:  

 

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2 minutes ago, The_Kincardine said:

Daft post, again, and IndyRef(x) is dead in the water.

I have said since 2014  that the best thing the Nats can do is govern their way to independence and I maintain that position.

Rather than heeding my advice what was the high water mark for Scottish independence?  The chap tasked with Covid recover falling arse over tit on a scooter while he was being filmed:  

 

 

Your video's priceless!

Shame about the rest of your post.

 

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3 minutes ago, The_Kincardine said:

That's the Nippy/Daft Wee Katie excuse.

Scotland is astonishingly badly governed.

 

I wouldn't dispute that, but the SNP, The Greens and Alba do have a common goal, and I'm confident they will deliver.

Anyway it's after 8pm now, and you know what they say about drinking gin after 8pm.

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2 minutes ago, ICTJohnboy said:

 

I wouldn't dispute that, but the SNP, The Greens and Alba do have a common goal, and I'm confident they will deliver.

Anyway it's after 8pm now, and you know what they say about drinking gin after 8pm.

Oh ok so it's the gin patter is it?  How sad.

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4 minutes ago, Dawson Park Boy said:

Well, at least they’re being ALLOWED to celebrate it unlike our little tinpot dictatorship.

 

Our little tin pot dictatorship is going by the science, rather that the extreme right of the Tory party, who Boris must obey.

 

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