When will indyref2 happen?

[Zern]

7 minutes ago, Kenneth840 said:

I am making the mistake of assuming that the electorate want it in the first place, for example elections fought on a purely independence mandate. 

Personally in that case, I see no need for a referendum, but it might keep some people happy. 

You certainly are mistaken about a lot of things. Independence being one of them.

The Scottish government, Greens and SNP, are attempting to do this peacefully and democratically and that is why the referendum is important prior to independence. We choose it. Not impose it.

If the UK government persists in denying the vote, there is whole slew of protest and politics before we arrive at any form of UDI.

[Kenneth840]

31 minutes ago, Zern said:

You certainly are mistaken about a lot of things. Independence being one of them.

The Scottish government, Greens and SNP, are attempting to do this peacefully and democratically and that is why the referendum is important prior to independence. We choose it. Not impose it.

If the UK government persists in denying the vote, there is whole slew of protest and politics before we arrive at any form of UDI.

I am mistaken about Independence.  Aye. 

I am not mistaken when I know we can declare Independence anytime we like with a majority of mps and msps in both Holyrood and the English government.

And you end on slagging off udi like no other country has done that. 

No, we choose it, Scot we choose it. 

We decide not a government in a foreign country we decide. 

 

[Kenneth840]

59 minutes ago, Zern said:

You certainly are mistaken about a lot of things. Independence being one of them.

The Scottish government, Greens and SNP, are attempting to do this peacefully and democratically and that is why the referendum is important prior to independence. We choose it. Not impose it.

If the UK government persists in denying the vote, there is whole slew of protest and politics before we arrive at any form of UDI.

Democratically and peacefully.  

When do we confront the UK establishment peacefully and ask for a section 30 democratically? 

For this referendum?

[strichener]

1 minute ago, Kenneth840 said:

Democratically and peacefully.  

When do we confront the UK establishment peacefully and ask for a section 30 democratically? 

For this referendum?

I'll write a letter to them tomorrow, sent straight to No.10.  That should do it, don't you think?

[Kenneth840]

17 minutes ago, strichener said:

I'll write a letter to them tomorrow, sent straight to No.10.  That should do it, don't you think?

Yes.

[welshbairn]

2 hours ago, Kenneth840 said:

 

What are your qualifications on deciding who can support who? What relationship do you have with the UN? 

To answer your question about who would support us?  Read this.

Scotland is recognised as a country by the UN.  

The ruk has lost a lot of its weight with leaving the EU. 

Europe is in favour of Scotland rejoining the EU. 

We have Europes backing, that is enough.  

Referendum can come after we declare we are Independent. It is the only way it can be done. Under UN rules and supervision. 

 

Spain for one would block any EU recognition of a self declared independent Scotland that doesn't follow the constitutional process, and the UN just follows the will of its members. Russia might recognise us for lolz and as a favour to Alex, but that would be about it.

Edited December 26, 2021 by welshbairn

[NotThePars]

What scenario forces the UK into granting another referendum beyond a time where they're very confident they'll win it again?

[welshbairn]

3 hours ago, NotThePars said:

What scenario forces the UK into granting another referendum beyond a time where they're very confident they'll win it again?

1. SNP holding the balance of power in Westminster. Salmond thinks they should have used it by backing May or Johnson over Brexit, but I think that would have destroyed their chances of winning a second referendum. Another GE where Labour have one or zero MPs in Scotland but have a chance of power with SNP support might finally drill reality into them.

2. An unbinding referendum called at a time the SG chooses. I don't think there is any law against it as there was in Catalonia, but if successful it would put huge pressure on Westminster to allow a binding one. The tricky thing would be how to avoid a Unionist boycott to give it credibility.

[NotThePars]

10 hours ago, welshbairn said:

1. SNP holding the balance of power in Westminster. Salmond thinks they should have used it by backing May or Johnson over Brexit, but I think that would have destroyed their chances of winning a second referendum. Another GE where Labour have one or zero MPs in Scotland but have a chance of power with SNP support might finally drill reality into them.

2. An unbinding referendum called at a time the SG chooses. I don't think there is any law against it as there was in Catalonia, but if successful it would put huge pressure on Westminster to allow a binding one. The tricky thing would be how to avoid a Unionist boycott to give it credibility.

It wouldn't surprise me at all if Labour tank their own chance at power to prevent number 1. Even if the SNP don't mind lining up with Tories up here to shoot down progressive legislation on occasion I don't think the vastly greater media attention on the SNP horse trading with a minority Tory Party down south would let them trade a referendum for keeping them in power at Westminster.

You've answered your own scenario with number 2. I don't see any scenario where an unbinding referendum gets any credibility attached to it from the other side. 

Catalonia shows if the state needs to crack down then it will and while us being out of Europe is important to consider I still think the EU values stability over anything else and them being seen to endorse an intransigent breakaway movement makes civil disobedience tricky and that's before you consider that the SNP have virtually zero stomach for it and have done nothing to make it a valid option. 

It's all asking nicely and some legalistic pursuits which given the last 5 years looks very unlikely. I'm not surprised the Alba contingent have had enough even if I think they're expressing it mostly like cranks and don't have a coherent plan either. I don't think there is one FWIW.

[Zern]

On 26/12/2021 at 17:07, Kenneth840 said:

Democratically and peacefully.  

When do we confront the UK establishment peacefully and ask for a section 30 democratically? 

For this referendum?

We do not need a section 30 to poll the electorate. The referendum act of 2020 sets out the framework for holding advisory referendums in Scotland and it is under that legislation we proceed.

UDI is not a goal. The goal is to to have a referendum.

We look to the Scottish government to legislate competently. Which they are doing and setting a timescale for 2023. Every piece of political protest that occurs will be in pursuit of that referendum.

Not UDI.

[Zern]

On 26/12/2021 at 17:49, welshbairn said:

Spain for one would block any EU recognition of a self declared independent Scotland that doesn't follow the constitutional process, and the UN just follows the will of its members. Russia might recognise us for lolz and as a favour to Alex, but that would be about it.

Why is it Spain blocking EU acceptance in these hypotheticals?

They do come up an awful lot as the moustachioed villains who weirdly have it in for Scotland.

[welshbairn]

4 minutes ago, Zern said:

Why is it Spain blocking EU acceptance in these hypotheticals?

They do come up an awful lot as the moustachioed villains who weirdly have it in for Scotland.

They're sticklers for constitutional law as that's what they're using to stop Catalonia holding a legal referendum, so they're against anyone else setting a precedent. They've said they'd have no problem accepting Scotland into the EU if we follow the constitutional path to independence.

[Zern]

3 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

They're sticklers for constitutional law as that's what they're using to stop Catalonia holding a legal referendum, so they're against anyone else setting a precedent. They've said they'd have no problem accepting Scotland into the EU if we follow the constitutional path to independence.

That doesn't make any sense. How does a action in another nation state set a precedent in Spanish constitutional law?

I don't think there is even a route to independence under the Spanish constitution.

[Eddie Hitler]

On 27/12/2021 at 01:21, welshbairn said:

1. SNP holding the balance of power in Westminster. Salmond thinks they should have used it by backing May or Johnson over Brexit, but I think that would have destroyed their chances of winning a second referendum. Another GE where Labour have one or zero MPs in Scotland but have a chance of power with SNP support might finally drill reality into them.

2. An unbinding referendum called at a time the SG chooses. I don't think there is any law against it as there was in Catalonia, but if successful it would put huge pressure on Westminster to allow a binding one. The tricky thing would be how to avoid a Unionist boycott to give it credibility.

The problem with your point 1 that no-one ever seems to be able to cover is why are Labour (when dependent on that SNP support to govern) entertaining a scenario which would see it disappear, I.E. when independence would mean no Scots MPs, SNP or otherwise, to prop them up?

Even if you imagine that they’d say “ok but you don’t get to hold it till near the end of the Parliamentary term”, then all they’re doing is kicking the “we can’t win without some Scottish support” problem down the line till then.

In any case, and without knowing what the alternative is necessarily, if independence is required hanging about hoping for an election result to throw up a rare result giving the SNP the balance of power and then relying on the goodwill of the Labour Party neither seems particularly satisfactory or a likely route to success.

As I’ve said, it’s tricky and I’m not saying there’s another easy fix but I’d also be reticent to vote for anyone saying “give us your vote and then the Labour Party will make it easy for us to break up the union, honest”. It’d be disingenuous of them to pretend that it was more than a long shot that the result would be achieved in the first place, far less that a unionist party will play ball now.

[welshbairn]

19 minutes ago, Zern said:

That doesn't make any sense. How does a action in another nation state set a precedent in Spanish constitutional law?

I don't think there is even a route to independence under the Spanish constitution.

They'd have to alter the constitution that 90 odd % of Catalonians voted for (iirc). They just don't any thing that would offer the Catalonians hope of UDI being recognised by the EU.

[Kenneth840]

On 26/12/2021 at 17:49, welshbairn said:

Spain for one would block any EU recognition of a self declared independent Scotland that doesn't follow the constitutional process, and the UN just follows the will of its members. Russia might recognise us for lolz and as a favour to Alex, but that would be about it.

If the referendum happens, use UN franchise.

On 27/12/2021 at 01:21, welshbairn said:

1. SNP holding the balance of power in Westminster. Salmond thinks they should have used it by backing May or Johnson over Brexit, but I think that would have destroyed their chances of winning a second referendum. Another GE where Labour have one or zero MPs in Scotland but have a chance of power with SNP support might finally drill reality into them.

2. An unbinding referendum called at a time the SG chooses. I don't think there is any law against it as there was in Catalonia, but if successful it would put huge pressure on Westminster to allow a binding one. The tricky thing would be how to avoid a Unionist boycott to give it credibility.

For the 2024 English general election?  The one that Pete Wishart for example is chuffed about the opinion polls showing a large SNP win, 56/59. That one.

So are we having a referendum in 2023?

1 hour ago, Zern said:

We do not need a section 30 to poll the electorate. The referendum act of 2020 sets out the framework for holding advisory referendums in Scotland and it is under that legislation we proceed.

UDI is not a goal. The goal is to to have a referendum.

We look to the Scottish government to legislate competently. Which they are doing and setting a timescale for 2023. Every piece of political protest that occurs will be in pursuit of that referendum.

Not UDI.

The referendum act 2020 is not worth the paper it is written on.  The whole Scotland act can and will be changed by westminster as and when it chooses.  We cannot proceed whilst seeking a section 30 Scotland act order.  We cannot proceed legally under UK law, it has been designed to stop us.  It is not possible. 

We have to come to terms with the fact that we are a colony in all but name, and appeal to the UN for support and adopt UN practice with regards to referenda. 

The referendum in 2023 cannot be happening when we have SNP politicians cheering opinion polls about a 2024 westminster general election. 

Goodness me.

The goal is an Independent Scotland free from tory rule where the Scots decide their own future. 

Edited December 28, 2021 by Kenneth840
Missed a bit

[welshbairn]

4 hours ago, Eddie Hitler said:

The problem with your point 1 that no-one ever seems to be able to cover is why are Labour (when dependent on that SNP support to govern) entertaining a scenario which would see it disappear, I.E. when independence would mean no Scots MPs, SNP or otherwise, to prop them up?

Even if you imagine that they’d say “ok but you don’t get to hold it till near the end of the Parliamentary term”, then all they’re doing is kicking the “we can’t win without some Scottish support” problem down the line till then.

In any case, and without knowing what the alternative is necessarily, if independence is required hanging about hoping for an election result to throw up a rare result giving the SNP the balance of power and then relying on the goodwill of the Labour Party neither seems particularly satisfactory or a likely route to success.

As I’ve said, it’s tricky and I’m not saying there’s another easy fix but I’d also be reticent to vote for anyone saying “give us your vote and then the Labour Party will make it easy for us to break up the union, honest”. It’d be disingenuous of them to pretend that it was more than a long shot that the result would be achieved in the first place, far less that a unionist party will play ball now.

I think one of the only times when the Scottish vote was crucial to Labour was in 2017 when a load of numpties in the North East and the Borders handed over Westminster to the Tories. They have one MP in Scotland, a period of power backed by the SNP would give them a chance of winning back their English and Welsh votes where they still have a chance.

Edited December 28, 2021 by welshbairn

[welshbairn]

1 minute ago, Kenneth840 said:

UN franchise.

What's that?

[Kenneth840]

2 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

What's that?

Google it. 

Still waiting on your qualifications as a UN spokesperson. 

[Zern]

8 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

They'd have to alter the constitution that 90 odd % of Catalonians voted for (iirc). They just don't any thing that would offer the Catalonians hope of UDI being recognised by the EU.

How does that work exactly? Through psychic suppression?

You have the Spanish constitution. Okay. That has no bearing on our situation or on any independence movements or declarations worldwide. We don't see Spain vetoing independent countries that have taken the UDI route. Nor do we see the UK doing the same in order to quell it's own movements.

In fact the EU has taken a very active role in neighbouring states in becoming independent over its lifetime.