When will indyref2 happen?

[Thorongil]

6 hours ago, Cardle is Magic said:

Today’s polling should scream to anyone with a brain cell or a pulse that Twitter and Pie and Bovril are in zero way an accurate reflection of the general public’s mood.

I’m sure the Alba moon howlers will still be screeching that it’s the end of society as we know it blah blah something about “woke culture”.

I think this is a very fair point. The public mood is not reflected on any form of social media, or other media. Makes sense given they are self-selecting. 

[Florentine_Pogen]

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/dec/02/nicola-sturgeon-second-referendum-uk-scottish-independence

[Kenneth840]

By 2050 Scots will be in the minority.  Time to get the finger out lads. 

[Baxter Parp]

30 minutes ago, Kenneth840 said:

By 2050 Scots will be in the minority.  Time to get the finger out lads. 

In the minority of what?

[The_Kincardine]

35 minutes ago, Kenneth840 said:

By 2050 Scots will be in the minority.  Time to get the finger out lads. 

Aye, those damned furriners spoiling wur ethno-nationalism.

Edited December 4, 2021 by The_Kincardine

[Thorongil]

3 minutes ago, The_Kincardine said:

Aye, those damned furriners spoiling wur ethno-nationalism.

I’m pretty sure it was a joke. From your side, not so much.

[ICTJohnboy]

On 01/12/2021 at 19:27, Scott Steiner said:

Why are you talking about regions and regional anthems?

 

Because in your fucked up world Scotland's just another region in this glorious United Kingdom.

[Scott Steiner]

On 01/12/2021 at 12:06, 101 said:

Yes polling at 55% 

Hard to take that poll seriously.  The data shows the weighting is all over the place.

Great wee sweetener for the SNP rank and file though.

Edited December 4, 2021 by Scott Steiner

[Theyellowbox]

3 minutes ago, Scott Steiner said:

Hard to take that poll seriously.  The data shows the weighting is all over the place.

Great wee sweetener for the rank and file before the SNP conference though.

While it's likely that the 55% is probably boosted by the absolute shambles of a UK govt right now and so maybe a bit higher than 'normal' polls would show, I wonder that if someone decides they'e had enough of this union and move towards favouring independence, do they ever fully go back to be pro union?

In that, I mean once you you square off in your own mind that this is unsustainable longer term, the argument FOR the union need to be even more powerful to flip you back over. I'd say (and without any evidence granted), that it is more likely for someone to move from the status quo towards wanting independence that to go from wanting independence to wanting the union to remain.

If that was the case and the polls were anywhere near accurate, then the more polls that look like this, the more sticky the swing voters become for independence.

Another factor here might be that the entire nation has had to move out of status quo's in just about everything over the last two years. Does that make previously risk adverse people more likely to look.for change and not be as afraid of what the consequences are? 

[Scott Steiner]

4 minutes ago, Theyellowbox said:

While it's likely that the 55% is probably boosted by the absolute shambles of a UK govt right now and so maybe a bit higher than 'normal' polls would show, I wonder that if someone decides they'e had enough of this union and move towards favouring independence, do they ever fully go back to be pro union?

In that, I mean once you you square off in your own mind that this is unsustainable longer term, the argument FOR the union need to be even more powerful to flip you back over. I'd say (and without any evidence granted), that it is more likely for someone to move from the status quo towards wanting independence that to go from wanting independence to wanting the union to remain.

If that was the case and the polls were anywhere near accurate, then the more polls that look like this, the more sticky the swing voters become for independence.

Another factor here might be that the entire nation has had to move out of status quo's in just about everything over the last two years. Does that make previously risk adverse people more likely to look.for change and not be as afraid of what the consequences are? 

I downloaded the data of the poll and the weighting was all over the shop.  This is what I believe has caused the swing and was spoken about on The Majority Podcast - Episode 1 

I think those who swing to Yes can indeed go back to the Union, which has been shown by the fluctuations in polls which at one point were 59% in favour of Yes.

Don't forget that this is at a point when fundamental issues aren't even being debated.  If we were speaking about the chance of EU membership, the currency and the English border then support for the Union would be even higher.

Polling was generous to Yes in the lead up to the referendum in 2014 and I don't see that wouldn't be the same now.

As for your last paragraph, very good point and I don't know the answer.  It's going to be hard to factor that in to any polling!

[Lex]

Over six years this thread has been running for. We need some kind of sweepstake for when it will fall of the politics board… I’ll have the option of PNB ceasing to exist first.

[speckled tangerine]

https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/politics/arid-40754472.html

I see Sinn Fein continue to be miles ahead in opinion polling in Ireland and who'd have thought that even ten years ago? 

I absolutely agree that Scottish independence needs a catalyst and that catalyst is the ever closer integration of the north with the south as a direct result highlighted by the preferential deal NI has following brexit. Trade has increased by large amounts between the two whilst trade between NI and the mainland has fallen off a cliff. If Sinn Fein lead the next Irish Government then surely they'll be chasing a border poll and if the demand is there, then the GFA says it happens.

The polls could show a huge majority for independence here but number ten says no to a referendum. The white house will make sure it happens in Ireland.

That's the only way we'll get our chance in my opinion, with NI going first although that could be happening relatively quickly- within ten years.

Pie & Bovril will still be here though.

 

 

[oldbitterandgrumpy]

1 hour ago, ICTJohnboy said:

 

Because in your fucked up world Scotland's just another region in this glorious United Kingdom.

Don’t you mean Mighty Union?

[Dan Steele]

36 minutes ago, Scott Steiner said:

Don't forget that this is at a point when fundamental issues aren't even being debated.  If we were speaking about the chance of EU membership, the currency and the English border then support for the Union would be even higher.

If the fundamental issues aren't even being debated and support for Yes is growing then presumably those asked are basing their support for independence on the performance of the current state of what's coming out if Westminster. The figures will only rise once other issues are debated. The whole premise of Better Together is shattered and it appears people have had enough of that crumbled argument.

[Scott Steiner]

9 hours ago, The Skelpit Lug said:

If the fundamental issues aren't even being debated and support for Yes is growing then presumably those asked are basing their support for independence on the performance of the current state of what's coming out if Westminster. The figures will only rise once other issues are debated. The whole premise of Better Together is shattered and it appears people have had enough of that crumbled argument.

I see no reason for Yes support to rise in the event of currency/EU/English border being debated.  If these issues were at the forefront of people's minds then it would cause more support for the Union IMO.  I also don't support for Independence has risen.. I think this poll is an outlier with dodgy weighting.  Perhaps purposely?  Seems it came out at a very convenient time for the SNP.

Scotland couldn't join the EU with the amount of debt we have, unless they inflicted austerity on us the way they did with Greece.  Even if we did get in, it'd mean business taking the hit as they'd have to unpick the trade deals that'd be in place all over the world, in favour of having a single deal with what would then look like a relatively small, insular block.

We'd probably have to join the Euro and ditch the Pound - a huge vote loser.

The English border would be a huge complication which the whole EU obsession makes a nightmare.

Good point about what's coming out of Westminster though.  Put it this way, if you were ever going to get Independence then it should really be now.  Johnson a gift to you guys, and he has never looked more corrupt or dodgy.  We are just out of the EU too.  The way I see it, is that from an optical perspective in terms of the Tories/Union then the only way is up.

Edited December 5, 2021 by Scott Steiner

[Scott Steiner]

9 hours ago, speckled tangerine said:

https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/politics/arid-40754472.html

I see Sinn Fein continue to be miles ahead in opinion polling in Ireland and who'd have thought that even ten years ago? 

I absolutely agree that Scottish independence needs a catalyst and that catalyst is the ever closer integration of the north with the south as a direct result highlighted by the preferential deal NI has following brexit. Trade has increased by large amounts between the two whilst trade between NI and the mainland has fallen off a cliff. If Sinn Fein lead the next Irish Government then surely they'll be chasing a border poll and if the demand is there, then the GFA says it happens.

The polls could show a huge majority for independence here but number ten says no to a referendum. The white house will make sure it happens in Ireland.

That's the only way we'll get our chance in my opinion, with NI going first although that could be happening relatively quickly- within ten years.

Pie & Bovril will still be here though.

 

 

I trump your 'NI preferential deal' with 'free NHS'!  Opinion polling shows that the people of NI are not thinking of leaving the country any time soon.

There are mixed opinions on the current trade situation over there, with lots of business-minded people coming out against the protocol.

SF being the largest party in the assembly isn't a foregone conclusion either.  The Unionists will pull out all the stops in terms of pacts etc to prevent this from happening.  By the time May comes round, the protocol issue will have been sorted and they'll know what they have to work with and what lines to take.  The DUP drop in support is largely due to it's base jumping to the TUV who take a harder stance on such matters.  All we need is for that support to jump back to the DUP, and all we need for that to happen is for the DUP to take credit for the protocol to be sorted which will happen IMO, and the threat of SF getting in itself which will chill Unionist voters to the bone.

It's all very well giving answers to polling companies, but it's the vote in May that matters,

[Stellaboz]

Scotland doesn't have any debt.

[ICTJohnboy]

11 hours ago, Theyellowbox said:

While it's likely that the 55% is probably boosted by the absolute shambles of a UK govt right now and so maybe a bit higher than 'normal' polls would show, I wonder that if someone decides they'e had enough of this union and move towards favouring independence, do they ever fully go back to be pro union?

 

 

If this "absolute shambles of a UK govt" ditched BoJo and installed someone, anyone with a degree of competence, there is a real danger that many would revert from Yes to No.

The longer BoJo remains in charge the better for Indy prospects.

 

 

Edited December 5, 2021 by ICTJohnboy

[Salt n Vinegar]

32 minutes ago, Stellaboz said:

Scotland doesn't have any debt.

I think that's going to be an important aspect of any Indy debate.  What's often forgotten by the ".... but... but the billions and billions in debt" folk is the share of UK assets which Scotland would have a claim on.  I've never seen a calculation done, but it would certainly be interesting. 

[Salt n Vinegar]

36 minutes ago, ICTJohnboy said:

 

If this "absolute shambles of a UK govt" ditched BoJo and installed someone, anyone with a degree of competence, there is a real danger that many would revert from Yes to No.

The longer BoJo remains in charge the better for Indy prospects.

 

 

Do you think there are any candidates with a degree of competence in the current batch of Tory MPs who would command respect and support from the MPs and wider Tory and Tory voting base? I'm struggling to come up with a short list of even 1.