When will indyref2 happen?

[Carnoustie Young Guvnor]

19 minutes ago, TheJTS98 said:

Yip. And that's a situation that would be a dream for any aggressive government in England in the future. They'd simply be acting 'to protect ourselves from the provocative actions of the Edinburgh government'.

As old as the hills.

It wouldn't be provocative as we wouldn't do it first. It would just be a threat that would always linger.  And tbh, if it comes to the point a country is actually planning to invade your country (can't believe I'm even discussing this as its so ridiculous) then switching their lights and water off is a very mild response and absolutely called for. You'd be mental not to if you had the power to do so. 

[Enigma]

33 minutes ago, TheJTS98 said:

2) Yet we ended up... There's no reason to assume we'd be any more successful long-term in the future.

2) The Auld Alliance, as I mentioned, ended largely because the reformation changing the game in terms of how European states aligned and coming not much later the union of the crowns. Safe to say the reasons why an alliance failed in the 16th century don’t apply in the 21st.

[Guest TheJTS98]

3 minutes ago, Carnoustie Young Guvnor said:

Nobody would, but that will be the reality of the situation, and those governing England will know that better than anyone.  That would temper any aggressive tendencies immediately.

If all this had any credibility at all, why haven't we invaded ROI?  Why does nobody even discuss it? Cause its nonsense.

You do realise that the ROI was formed after an armed conflict a century ago? And the UK was embroiled in a decades-long armed struggle in the remainder of the island to delay the inevitable?

Ireland is hardly an example of the UK being willing to cede territory. And there's nothing to say that situation is permanent either.

[Carnoustie Young Guvnor]

Anyway this is fantasyland stuff.  England will never, ever, ever again attempt to invade Scotland for any reason under any circumstances. So none of this will come up.  The world just isn't like that now, esepcially this part of it. 

They would seek to exploit us economically, may seek to implement policies down there that was force a response here say cutting corporation tax massively so we have to respond stuff like that. But wars between the two countries are thankfully an ancient relic and will remain so.

[Carnoustie Young Guvnor]

Just now, TheJTS98 said:

You do realise that the ROI was formed after an armed conflict a century ago? And the UK was embroiled in a decades-long armed struggle in the remainder of the island to delay the inevitable?

Ireland is hardly an example of the UK being willing to cede territory. And there's nothing to say that situation is permanent either.

Yeah a century ago, did you miss that bit when you typed it?   Women couldn't even vote at the time.

[Guest TheJTS98]

3 minutes ago, Carnoustie Young Guvnor said:

It wouldn't be provocative as we wouldn't do it first. It would just be a threat that would always linger.  And tbh, if it comes to the point a country is actually planning to invade your country (can't believe I'm even discussing this as its so ridiculous) then switching their lights and water off is a very mild response and absolutely called for. You'd be mental not to if you had the power to do so. 

Yes. And that's what puts us at risk. It's very simple.

Big countries don't tolerate small countries holding them at risk. Look at the fuss water supply is now causing in Africa, for another example.

[Guest TheJTS98]

1 minute ago, Carnoustie Young Guvnor said:

Yeah a century ago, did you miss that bit when you typed it?   Women couldn't even vote at the time.

The UK was involved in armed conflict in Ireland when I was at high school.

[Carnoustie Young Guvnor]

1 minute ago, TheJTS98 said:

Yes. And that's what puts us at risk. It's very simple.

Big countries don't tolerate small countries holding them at risk. Look at the fuss water supply is now causing in Africa, for another example.

We won't be at risk. This is pish. Give it up. Does Belgium exist 'at risk' from Germany?

[Guest TheJTS98]

4 minutes ago, Enigma said:

2) The Auld Alliance, as I mentioned, ended largely because the reformation changing the game in terms of how European states aligned and coming not much later the union of the crowns. Safe to say the reasons why an alliance failed in the 16th century don’t apply in the 21st.

No. But new reasons come along all the time.

Why would Scotland's security be a priority for France in the future? Or for anyone else?

[Enigma]

1 minute ago, TheJTS98 said:

Yes. And that's what puts us at risk. It's very simple.

Big countries don't tolerate small countries holding them at risk. Look at the fuss water supply is now causing in Africa, for another example.

The point is, as a member of the EU, we are (a part of) the bigger country.

[Carnoustie Young Guvnor]

Just now, TheJTS98 said:

The UK was involved in armed conflict in Ireland when I was at high school.

That was a domestic dispute essentially. Did you notice anyone suggesting invading ROI at the time?  

[Carnoustie Young Guvnor]

Just now, TheJTS98 said:

No. But new reasons come along all the time.

Why would Scotland's security be a priority for France in the future? Or for anyone else?

Why would it have to be?  When was the last time Spain tried to invade Portugal?

[Carnoustie Young Guvnor]

As I said this is 19th century thinking and doesn't deserve to be taken seriously.

[Carnoustie Young Guvnor]

Have you ever heard of 'democratic peace theory'?  No two democracies have ever gone to war in human history. Never, not once, anywhere in the world at any period in history.

This is why this is utter pish right from the get-go.  It doesn't even merit discussion. 

[Carnoustie Young Guvnor]

You can try and find examples all day long, everyone does when they first find out about it, I did too, but there are none.

[Guest TheJTS98]

5 minutes ago, Carnoustie Young Guvnor said:

That was a domestic dispute essentially. Did you notice anyone suggesting invading ROI at the time?  

It's a domestic dispute if you are the UK government, yes. If you're an Irish nationalist, it is fending off an invading neighbour.

England could invade Scotland and then frame it as a domestic issue. Would you see it that way?

Russia tries that with Ukraine. Some people even go along with it.

I don't think a war with England is likely any time soon. But it's not impossible. I think it's more likely that England quietly works to undermine the Scottish state and plays the long game waiting to move back in when the time is right. Like Russia does with all of its neighbours.

Not being secure isn't just about being bombed.

Edited January 25, 2021 by TheJTS98

[Carnoustie Young Guvnor]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democratic_peace_theory#:~:text=The democratic peace theory posits,conflict with other identified democracies.&text=Democracies tend to possess greater,to preserve infrastructure and resources.

[Guest TheJTS98]

6 minutes ago, Enigma said:

The point is, as a member of the EU, we are (a part of) the bigger country.

Yeah. And when the EU isn't around anymore?

This is a long-term issue. And Scotland needs a good answer to it.

My only concern around independence is that I have little faith in those likely to be negotiating the settlement to avoid the traps England will set for us.

[jamamafegan]

Could do without that image! However, it is interesting to reflect on the aftermath of the “no” vote in 2014. Yes, there was the triumphalist international embarrassment of extremist bigots goose-stepping through George Square, but I seem to recall the general atmosphere being very flat and gloomy. It was hardly a time of street parties and the majority (whether “no” or “yes”) seemed to be going through a period of anticlimax as the world shrugged its shoulders and looked away.
By contrast, I reckon a “yes” vote would see a massive outpouring of festivity and ongoing international interest in Scotland, followed by a renewal of the arts and increased political activity.

This. There is zero doubt that a Yes vote would return the biggest perty this nation has ever seen. The streets would be filled with people celebrating and crying with joy, cars peeping their horns, people hanging out their windowsills. Even soft no voters would be very quickly swept up in the euphoria as a nation rejoices, it would be utterly irresistible. A stark contrast to the No vote of 2014 which resulted in a terrible, gloomy atmosphere and small groups of vile Scottish gammons taking to the streets to cause trouble.

[O'Kelly Isley III]

The re-animated corpse of Old Man Brown is doing the rounds on breakfast telly this morning talking about how great the Union is.

Yes indeed; a column in The Telegraph, house journal of the Tory rabid-right; a recent meeting with Michael Gove; and embarking on yet another of his tin-eared missions to preach about the merits of the Union - no-one can accuse this toothless political dinosaur of failing desperately to hit every constitutional E-Stop button he can get his mitts on.