When will indyref2 happen?

[Granny Danger]

30 minutes ago, DeeTillEhDeh said:

Agree with Gordon here - we have to exhaust the constitutional route - it's only the past year that we've seen majority polls for independence - we need to keep that going in the right direction and solidify those softer Yes votes and weaken the soft No votes.

If section 30 failed I'd be looking at the Scottish Government being as uncooperative as possible with Westminster - perhaps independence MPs disrupting Westminster etc.

Make them want to get rid of Scotland.

It’s a pretty weak strategy.

[Genuine Hibs Fan]

On top of the points raised above about international recognition, the other issue is that any non section 30  route to independence would require a level of civil disobedience or mass protest that I don't think there's any evidence of appetite for in Scotland. Any non Westminster sanctioned referendum would get well below 50% turnout 

[Genuine Hibs Fan]

Just now, MixuFruit said:

I'd almost like this to happen just to see the 16 Yes Da's turn up in a car park somewhere

Exactly, I remember being in Catalonia in September 2014 and there were reports of hundreds of thousands marching. I lived there in 2017 and night after night the forum in front of the arc de triumf was packed. Before we even get to the folk happy to sit in polling stations with the guardia civil at the door that's a level of engagement that would take years to build here 

[Carnoustie Young Guvnor]

This is what will happen;  SNP or SNP/Green win majority in May.  Nicola writes to Bojo or whoever, requesting s30.  Reply comes once in a generation etc, s30 refused.

Scotgov left with a couple of choices.  Could hold a consultative referendum, would be boycotted by no camp, unionist councils wouldn't cooperate, vote undermined. Really need half the electorate, not just the turnout, plus one, to have much validity.  And that is unlikely.

At the same time as this could be approaching the EU, should be already.  The EU will be in a position right now more sympathetic to what Scotgov have to say than ever before, and more sympathetic than they have ever been with any country in history. Because of our particular circumstances, and their current antipathy towards London.  That doesn't mean they would roll over, but we'd get a sympathetic ear.

Biden is basically an Irish nationalist. Also an idiot.  He is no fan of Bojo, or even really London. He would be much more sympathetic to Scotgov than most US presidents.  

Its really Scotgov's duty to be making representations to both these groups right now.  Saying if we get majority then hold consultative referendum etc.  People talk about recognition, well the EU is the world's biggest trading block and the USA the world's only superpower, so recognition from them and you're laughing. 

But the answer is still likely to be the same.  It has to be legal and constitutional.  So realistically all of this is hot air most likely. The answer will be no and it will have to go to court. 

So it goes to court, UK govt use every delaying tactic imaginable. Eventually Scotgov wins, UK govt appeals, uses every delaying tactic imaginable.  Drags the thing out for years.  Meaning we require maybe another three majorities starting in May or the whole thing is off the table anyway. In a system designed to prevent them.

 

[welshbairn]

1 hour ago, DeeTillEhDeh said:

Bangladeshi independence was the result of a military crackdown by West Pakistan in East Pakistan on 26 March 1971 that resulted in the arrests of Bangladeshi politicians and many fleeing to firm a government in exile. 9 months of civil war followed before West Pakistan surrendered. I doubt very much that is the route we want to follow.

And it took the Indian Army coming to back them for them to win. 

[The_Kincardine]

36 minutes ago, Carnoustie Young Guvnor said:

Scotgov left with a couple of choices. 

The choices for ScotGov are simple:  Try and be a decent government and deal with education, transport and health or be a shower of cry-babies and bleat incessantly about The Tories.

To Scotland's enduring shame I know which path the Separatists will go down.

The daft wee Natters, when they assumed the reins of government in Scotland in 2007, could simply have made it a better country - and govern their way to independence, - especially given the Barnett bonus.  That they have not been able to is embarrassing.

Edited January 1, 2021 by The_Kincardine

[Carnoustie Young Guvnor]

15 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

And it took the Indian Army coming to back them for them to win. 

You can see why

 

 

[Carnoustie Young Guvnor]

1 minute ago, The_Kincardine said:

The choices for ScotGov are simple:  Try and be a decent government and deal with education, transport and health or be a shower of cry-babies and bleat incessantly about The Tories.

To Scotland's enduring shame I know which path the Separatists will go down.

The daft wee Natters, when they assumed the reins of government in Scotland in 2007, could simply have made it a better country - especially given the Barnett bonus.  That they have not been able to is embarrassing.

Nah what's embarrassing is craven shitehawks like you.  But they're a dying breed gladly.

[The_Kincardine]

Just now, Carnoustie Young Guvnor said:

Nah what's embarrassing is craven shitehawks like you.

You're living in a silly little Natter enclave where secondary education has fallen off a cliff despite we taxpayers from London and the SE propping you up.

About time you took issue with the idiots you vote in to power.

[Carnoustie Young Guvnor]

2 minutes ago, The_Kincardine said:

You're living in a silly little Natter enclave where secondary education has fallen off a cliff despite we taxpayers from London and the SE propping you up.

About time you took issue with the idiots you vote in to power.

Yeah totally man, we're going to take that lecture from Tory land who voted in Boris fucking Johson.  Chase yersel ya walloper.

[ICTJohnboy]

9 minutes ago, The_Kincardine said:

The choices for ScotGov are simple:  Try and be a decent government and deal with education, transport and health or be a shower of cry-babies and bleat incessantly about The Tories.

To Scotland's enduring shame I know which path the Separatists will go down.

The daft wee Natters, when they assumed the reins of government in Scotland in 2007, could simply have made it a better country - especially given the Barnett bonus.  That they have not been able to is embarrassing.

 

Given all that you would think RUK would be delighted to see the back of Scotland.

Strange that they appear to be desperate to preserve this broken, useless union. 

[The_Kincardine]

1 minute ago, Carnoustie Young Guvnor said:

Yeah totally man, we're going to take that lecture from Tory land who voted in Boris fucking Johson.  Chase yersel ya walloper.

That's it.  Scotland is becoming an absolute shitehole dominated by neds and statists.

You can wear the, 'we're not Tories' comfort blanket, though....

[git-intae-thum]

If Scotgov had spent the last few years actually exploring the legal route to independence, the key facts could very well already have been discussed and decided in the European court (after passing through the necessary domestic jurisdictions)

Ultimately now, our claim would be heard by the UK supreme court with no higher route of appeal.

Surely all can see the issue here. There can be no guesses how that case would eventually pan out!!!

I really hope the current Scotgov leadership do have a very cunning fall back position for when Boris says no again, because they have left the legal argument too late I fear.

 

 

 

[Baxter Parp]

3 hours ago, The_Kincardine said:

That's it.  Scotland is becoming an absolute shitehole dominated by neds and statists.

Which one are you?

[BFTD]

52 minutes ago, ThatBoyRonaldo said:

Two 100% correct posts. 

This is entirely off the top of my head but I'd wager the strongest support for "Plan B"/UDI comes from comfortably off men of middle age and above. Homeowners and recent retirees. Basically the Scottish equivalent of "Red Wall" Tory voters. Not people I would feel confident basing a campaign of civil disobedience on!

I've been looking forward to @Granny Danger leading the charge in the streets for a while now.

[welshbairn]

13 minutes ago, BFTD said:

I've been looking forward to @Granny Danger leading the charge in the streets from his retirement home in Lanzarote. 

FTFY

[Lex]

Of course there is no chance BJ grants you a legally binding referendum this parliament the way DC did.

Your two options are to hold a clown shoes Catalonia style rogue referendum - which will be boycotted by Unionists and return a Putinesque 90%+ YES vote and be laughed out the courts when it’s rejected by Westminster - or wait for a potentially more Indy friendly Starmer administration before calling it.

Neither looks great, to be fair. As a unionist, I’m not sure which I’d rather. Both seem quite appealing in different ways.

[Theroadlesstravelled]

The shite Brexit trade deal has turned P&B’s resident right wing, yoon gimps into slavering maniacs.

[Granny Danger]

16 hours ago, ThatBoyRonaldo said:

 

Two 100% correct posts. 

This is entirely off the top of my head but I'd wager the strongest support for "Plan B"/UDI comes from comfortably off men of middle age and above. Homeowners and recent retirees. Basically the Scottish equivalent of "Red Wall" Tory voters. Not people I would feel confident basing a campaign of civil disobedience on!

Yeah we should leave any such campaign to the likes of yourself.  Maybe you can share your strategy with us.

[Granny Danger]

59 minutes ago, ThatBoyRonaldo said:

Assuming a s.30 is denied (not certain tbf but probable) I don't think we have any particularly good options tbh. The legal route will be what the government probably go down and it will presumably fail. Then as people occasionally mention there is the tactic of refusing to cooperate with the British state - e.g the government should instruct Police Scotland not to cooperate with e.g immigration raids or not to enforce the UK law on injecting rooms etc. Then there's the parliamentary obstructionism at Westminster that people have mentioned. The SNP should do both of those things as they'd be good in and of themselves but they won't work if the goal is to annoy the Tories into providing a s.30.

Large scale civil disobedience or industrial action etc would probably be the most effective method but as the poster above said, there's basically zero recent history in Scotland for the type of thing that'd be required. And the demographic that seems most likely to spend time supporting it on forums/social media etc is unlikely to form a good basis for it.

Ultimately any unorthodox route to independence is a non-starter without completely overwhelming levels of public support imo, and we're not at that yet. The worst case scenario for May is that s.30 refusal is just another step on that road, adding a further 5% or so to the support levels, and we wind up playing an even longer game. 

The problem the party has is that it does self evidently need a "plan B" but it would be stupid to say so openly - you can't go into a negotiation making a demand but also broadcasting to your opponent what you will settle for. So I think we're in a position of needing to trust the leadership to an extent on the issue. Of course the malcontents/yes das are unwilling to do this because they don't trust Sturgeon/the leadership in general. Aside from all this the government should be making overtures towards the EU and incoming US administration etc but I think the assistance we can expect to receive from either will be minimal to non-existent.

What would your strategy be?

Firstly you’ve not answered my question before putting it back to be.  You have outlined a number of likely scenarios, that’s not offering a strategy.

I do not have a ‘strategy’ but then again I would be wary of criticising and presupposing other folks responses.

What I genuinely believe is that if people’s democratic rights are ignored or suppressed then anything is fair game.  Any action is likely to go beyond the aspirations and, probably, wishes of the SNP leadership and I say that as someone who totally supports Sturgeon and is critical of her critics.