When will indyref2 happen?

[Baxter Parp]

Quote

why would that be a reason not to hold an Independence referendum

Well, we recorded 2,622 new cases yesterday, how about that? Get the virus back under control, roll out the vaccine, think anew then.

Have a good new year.

[welshbairn]

3 hours ago, Stinky Bone said:

I think Nicola is doing a fair enough job at the moment with the limited tools at her disposal.  I understand that she is busy dealing with the covid crisis, but the least she could do as First Minister is renounce the section 30 process, a process that allows a foreign government to have a say in Scottish affairs. 

If she doesn't go through the constitutional route by the book, we won't get any international recognition and we'll be fucked. And if she says what she'll do if the section 30 demand is rejected, Westminster will be prepared to block what ever the next move is. And if she manages to get a referendum in the middle of a pandemic anyway, she'll lose it. Some patience is needed.

[Lex]

Still moon howling. This infighting is getting worse, isn’t it?

[Cyclizine]

12 hours ago, welshbairn said:

If she doesn't go through the constitutional route by the book, we won't get any international recognition and we'll be fucked. And if she says what she'll do if the section 30 demand is rejected, Westminster will be prepared to block what ever the next move is. And if she manages to get a referendum in the middle of a pandemic anyway, she'll lose it. Some patience is needed.

I really want independence and always have done, but we've got to realise that what's pushed support to it being the majority position is the move of soft no-voters and undecided to what are probably soft yes-votes. I really think that going down any unilateral routes will put these people off and even if a majority voted yes, the unionists and international community would just ignore it. This has to be done the constitutional route and if that is refused the courts. I wish it didn't, I wish we could just declare independence based on the sovereignty of the people, but realistically this won't be recognised by anyone outwith Scotland.

[SANTAN]

6 hours ago, Lex said:

Still moon howling. This infighting is getting worse, isn’t it?
 

I can't blame them, the years go by, the grey hairs on their head appear more and more frequently and half of the regulars posted that Scotland would be Independent by the year "2020" must be tough to reconcile that your little dream was not much more than that. We should be nice to them as they shake off the hazey glow and put down the Kool Aid and wander back into normal society. 

Edited January 1, 2021 by Stormzy

[welshbairn]

2 minutes ago, Stinky Bone said:

And I do not believe that the international community will not recognise a democratically elected government holding a referendum to decide its future.  I don't buy it. 

 

Tell the Catalonians that.

[welshbairn]

8 minutes ago, Stinky Bone said:

The people have spoken already.  It is time to hold the referendum

I think you can pretty well guarantee it would lose it they tried to hold it in the middle of the pandemic.

[Gordon EF]

13 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

Tell the Catalonians that.

Tell the UK, the US and the dozens of other countries that instantly recognised Kosovo's independence after a UDI following an "unsanctioned" referendum.

It's not a black and white issue.

Edited January 1, 2021 by Gordon EF

[welshbairn]

6 minutes ago, Gordon EF said:

Tell the UK the US and the dozens of other countries that instantly recognised Kosovo's independence after a UDI after an "unsanctioned" referndum.

It's not a black and white issue.

Sure, but Spain, and others most likely, would block EU recognition of UDI. Kosovo hasn't improved its situation much 12 years later.

P.S. The red countries are the ones who originally recognised it, then withdrew it.

Edited January 1, 2021 by welshbairn

[Gordon EF]

Yeah, as with every single time this issue comes up, I'm not saying UDI will be fine and easy and everything will be fine. All i'm saying is that there is no "set" response to these things. Every scenario is different and countries responses tend to depend very much on the individual scenarios. So going "but Catalonia" every time it comes up doesn't make much sense.

[Gordon EF]

9 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

Sure, but Spain, and others most likely, would block EU recognition of UDI.

Possibly. It seems to have become this truism but rationally, there's zero benefit to Spain doing that. They absolutely wouldn't be setting any kind of precedent for Catalonia wether in terms if gaining independence or gaining recognition or entering the EU.

[welshbairn]

3 minutes ago, Gordon EF said:

They absolutely wouldn't be setting any kind of precedent for Catalonia wether in terms if gaining independence or gaining recognition or entering the EU.

I don't see why not, unless you mean because we're not in the EU anymore?

[Gordon EF]

7 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

I don't see why not, unless you mean because we're not in the EU anymore?

Spain's position is that any attempt at secession is illegal under Spanish law. That's how they stopped the referendum being completed. The referendum process was never completed internally within Spain/Catalonia. Spain, presumably would continue this position and do the same in the future, regardless of what happens in Scotland.

Because the referendum / UDI never completed, the international community was never in a position to have to make a decision on recognition. As with all these things, if it did happen, countries would respond with whatever realpolitik dictated at the time, regardless with what happens with Scotland.

Spain would still retain a veto on an potential iCatalonia entry into the EU. Even if they didn't veto a potential iScotland entry.

Edited January 1, 2021 by Gordon EF

[BFTD]

In the wake of what happened in Spain, I still can't believe anybody needs it explained why the Scottish Government doesn't throw another referendum, or just UDI.

The former is because the unionists would claim it isn't legal, and wouldn't vote, making a mockery of the whole affair. The latter is because they don't want to go to jail and see independence permanently taken off the table. Surely none of this is at question; this is exactly what would happen.

[Gordon EF]

3 minutes ago, BFTD said:

In the wake of what happened in Spain, I still can't believe anybody needs it explained why the Scottish Government doesn't throw another referendum, or just UDI.

The former is because the unionists would claim it isn't legal, and wouldn't vote, making a mockery of the whole affair. The latter is because they don't want to go to jail and see independence permanently taken off the table. Surely none of this is at question; this is exactly what would happen.

I'm not advocating going down the Catalonia route. But I find it very unlikely that a UK government would follow the Spanish route under almost any scenario. This idea that the UK government would just do exactly what Spain did is mental when there's evidence from the past 7 years that the faced a similar situation and acted completely differently.

[BFTD]

1 minute ago, Gordon EF said:

I'm not advocating going down the Catalonia route. But I find it very unlikely that a UK government would follow the Spanish route under almost any scenario. This idea that the UK government would just do exactly what Spain did is mental when there's evidence from the past 7 years that the faced a similar situation and acted completely differently.

What do you think Westminster would do if Scotland declared independence after a referendum that they refused to acknowledge, and which the majority of Unionist voters didn't vote in?

[Gordon EF]

14 minutes ago, BFTD said:

What do you think Westminster would do if Scotland declared independence after a referendum that they refused to acknowledge, and which the majority of Unionist voters didn't vote in?

I have no idea and I'm not the one pretending to. I think it depends on so many factors that's it's ludicrous to make definitive statements about it a long time before it potentially happens.

How many people did vote? How many voted yes? What is the general strength of feeling among the public in Scotland? What positions to Scottish institutions take on it? What government sits in Westminster? What position to opposition parties take on it? What's the general feeling amongst the public in rUK? What positions, if any, are taken by foreign countries? Are you actually willing to enforce your will by force? Will you use the police to disrupt a legal consultative referendum or arrest people? Would the Scottish police actually be willing to do that? If they weren't, would you bus in police from rUK? Would they be willing to do that? Do you think there's a realistic chance the situation could escalate to violence and are you really willing to risk that?

Edit: by "you" here, i mean a UK government, not you personally.

Without knowing these things, I just don't know how anyone could be certain about how it would play out.

Edited January 1, 2021 by Gordon EF

[BFTD]

That's a lot of questions but, skimming over it, the answers appear to be "it doesn't matter" or "yes, obviously".

I'm a bit flabbergasted that anyone would still think any Westminster government would even give more than momentary consideration to any of those things.

[BFTD]

2 minutes ago, Stinky Bone said:

If the referendum is held by a democratically elected government, then legalities should not come into it.  If unionists choose not to vote, that is their tough shit.  

I agree.

It wouldn't matter, though.

[Gordon EF]

12 minutes ago, BFTD said:

That's a lot of questions but, skimming over it, the answers appear to be "it doesn't matter" or "yes, obviously".

I'm a bit flabbergasted that anyone would still think any Westminster government would even give more than momentary consideration to any of those things.

So you seriously think it's not only possible, or probable but obvious that in a hypothetical scenario where the clear majority of Scots registered to vote vote Yes in a non-section 30 referendum, there is broad support for both the referendum process and independence amongst the Scottish public and institutions, there is acceptance amongst the international community, opposition parties at WM, the general population of rUK, and the police basically say it's nothing to do with us, you think Boris would just send the troops in and that would be that, even if it become obvious that would lead to widespread violence?

And this is basically all based on "but Catalonia"?

Edited January 1, 2021 by Gordon EF