When will indyref2 happen?

[Inanimate Carbon Rod]

21 minutes ago, Jedi said:

Looking at a potential 'timetable', so...

2021-SNP wins a majority-asks Westminster for Ref 2-lets assume they agree-it would likely take at least a year to set up, so.....

late 2022 Yes wins.....might even be 2023 before a vote is held.

Probably around three years of negotiations on how it will all work, share of debts and assets, takes us to...

2025--A newly Independent Scotland runs with the Growth Commission recommendations.....which means 10 years of cutting public services and spending, and serious belt tightening...presumably overtures are made to the EU for membership....(that will take some time)

2030-'might' be back in the EU, might not.

2035--After 10 years of lower spending, lower taxes, attempts at increasing immigration, and making Scotland private sector and business friendly..by Andrew Wilson's admission, we are ready to 'start' taking steps towards growing our way towards a more stable economic position (we will presumably have been tied to sterling for 10 years by now)...

2040--The Scottish economy starts to grow, maybe back in the EU, and has better levels of immigration etc...

All in all around 20 years from now, before the tangible benefits of Independence materialise?.....Based on the Growth Commission's own model.

 

So 20 years compared to Rees Moggs assertion that even a ‘deal brexit’ would see us taking 50 years to see the ‘benefits of brexit’. 

[Bairnardo]

When will the tangible benefits of the UK membership materialise?   

The current PM wants to scrap the Barnett Formula, We're leaving the single market, and there's increased chat about closing Scotland's parliament.  

Something about shoulder width

[John Lambies Doos]

Genuinely think we should have a straight shoot out between Independence and Direct WM rule. It's time for hard choices. Even although we are supposed to have the most powerful devolved parliament in the world, Brexit has proven we are completely powerless.

[Guest Jedi]

Don't disagree that the 'benefits' of UK membership aren't there either. And yes, Brexit taking 50 years by Rees-Moggs own admission, and that is probably optimistic. (as there are no benefits). No question that the 'status quo' is done. And would a Tory led Westminster continue to drag us down by 2040?...yes.

Unfortunately however, Brexit has made Independence trickier. We have to be honest that there is no fast track back into the EU, and also that according to the SG's own projections via the Growth Commission that Independence means a bumpy ride economically for at least 10 years. If these elements are out in the open, and a majority vote for Independence....fine, that's democracy. However, I don't want to see a bed of roses Indy proposal put before the people of Scotland next year.

Brexit and the large Tory majority it has brought hangs like a dark shadow over everything else. Its a rock and a hard place. Would Independence benefit Scotland in the long, (long) run...yes, I think so.

However.....there are a good few other variables at play.....we don't know what other economic shocks might appear in the next 10, 20 years. The Tories could lose the next GE, and a Labour govt, if it had any sense of direction could get the UK as a whole back in the EU, while also delivering a proper form of Federalism.

The status quo-dead. Continuing to live under a Brexit, Tory le, Boris Johnson Westminster....unacceptable for Scotland (rightly so). But lets also be honest about all the alternatives to the worst case scenarios (which we have in place at present).

 

 

Edited December 12, 2020 by Jedi

[welshbairn]

You can also look at the Irish experience, shackling themselves to the pound for far too long, then jumping enthusiastically into it's EU member state status and all it could offer, while still being welcoming to 3rd country investment, particularly from America. Maybe the benefits weren't shared equally, but they went from being one of the poorest countries in Europe to one of the wealthiest in a couple of decades. Economic forecasts are rarely matched in reality, especially with so many variables after Independence. 

[welshbairn]

18 minutes ago, Jedi said:

We have to be honest that there is no fast track back into the EU

Why not? We already meet nearly all the criteria for membership, there isn't a queue that we have to go to the back of. I'd imagine the general tone in Europe would be quite accommodating.

[Guest Jedi]

The 3% deficit target is contained within EU documentation, and also explicit in Andrew Wilson's Growth Commission Report. 

Application for EU membership as a 'new' state which Scotland would be, is not automatic. Croatia as an example took 8 years from application to membership.On average (again, according to the EU's own documentation and criteria) it takes 5 years from application to full membership. Its not just about being a 'net' contributor. 

https://ukandeu.ac.uk/explainers/how-new-member-states-join-the-eu-all-you-need-to-know/

So, it is possible that an Independent Scotland could be in the EU, around 2030.....assuming an Indy Ref was won in 2023, and negotiations with Westminster were concluded fairly quickly.

[strichener]

Just now, welshbairn said:

Why not? We already meet nearly all the criteria for membership, there isn't a queue that we have to go to the back of. I'd imagine the general tone in Europe would be quite accommodating.

This has been done to death.  The EU do not have the ability to fastrack membership.

[welshbairn]

Just now, strichener said:

This has been done to death.  The EU do not have the ability to fastrack membership.

No, you just have to meet the criteria. There's no set timescale, therefore no need for a fast track.

[Guest Jedi]

Still 5 years on average for the 'quickest' applications though.

There also remains the issue of veto, which any of the other 27 countries hold. The Spanish example is well known with regards to Catalonia. 

Additionally, the EU could ask Scotland to join the Euro. 

Not saying that Scotland can't be back in the EU, but during a Referendum debate it has to be clear that it could take some time.

The alternative is to explore all options including EFTA.

Edited December 12, 2020 by Jedi

[strichener]

Just now, welshbairn said:

No, you just have to meet the criteria. There's no set timescale, therefore no need for a fast track.

Agreed and Scotland does not meet the criteria.  

As In have said, this has been down to death, pretty sure that @Ad Lib was involved.

[welshbairn]

10 minutes ago, strichener said:

Agreed and Scotland does not meet the criteria.  

As In have said, this has been down to death, pretty sure that @Ad Lib was involved.

 

We're probably closer than the other contenders. The financial settlement post independence will be significant of course, but I doubt we'll be at a great disadvantage compared to the average EU member post covid.

Edited December 12, 2020 by welshbairn

[Guest Jedi]

Had Brexit not happened it was inconclusive, yes, as an Independent Scotland could still have technically been a part of a member state.

4 years 10 months is the quickest succession, whether Scotland was 'exceptional' or not.

Could Scotland be applying for EU membership while negotiating with the rUK?....possibly. However there would still be a lot to iron out regarding Scotland (as an EU member) trading with the rUK which is outside. What tariffs are there (each way) on Scotland's trade with England for instance? EU law applies fully in Scotland, but not in England, how does a level playing field work? Fishing waters? EU boats have access to Scottish waters, but can't cross English ones...how do they gain access? Scotland pays membership fees to the EU at the same time as paying off its share of rUK debt. For starters..

Also, if there is a legal dispute between Scotland and England over trading standards, or debt payments, what is the court of arbitration? European Law doesn't apply in England, so who manages the dispute?

Edited December 12, 2020 by Jedi

[HTG]

2 minutes ago, Jedi said:

Had Brexit not happened it was inconclusive, yes, as an Independent Scotland could still have technically been a part of a member state.

4 years 10 months is the quickest succession, whether Scotland was 'exceptional' or not.

Could Scotland be applying for EU membership while negotiating with the rUK?....possibly. However there would still be a lot to iron out regarding Scotland (as an EU member) trading with the rUK which is outside. What tariffs are there (each way) on Scotland's trade with England for instance? EU law applies fully in Scotland, but not in England, how does a level playing field work? Fishing waters? EU boats have access to Scottish waters, but can't cross English ones...how do they gain access? Scotland pays membership fees to the EU at the same time as paying off its share of rUK debt. For starters..

Aye, f**k it. Let's not bother then eh? 

England made its decisions and howfed the rest of us with them. Scotland will be in a position to align to the single market in short order, in turn securing a deal with the EU ahead of full membership. 

Scotland is not some sort of chattel.  Scotland has plenty that England needs access to. If England wants to protect its energy supplies and its northern regions economy, it may be prudent to engage practically rather than continue down the pariah route. 

Not becoming independent because England might be an arsehole about it is not going to fly. 

[welshbairn]

18 minutes ago, Jedi said:

Had Brexit not happened it was inconclusive, yes, as an Independent Scotland could still have technically been a part of a member state.

4 years 10 months is the quickest succession, whether Scotland was 'exceptional' or not.

Could Scotland be applying for EU membership while negotiating with the rUK?....possibly. However there would still be a lot to iron out regarding Scotland (as an EU member) trading with the rUK which is outside. What tariffs are there (each way) on Scotland's trade with England for instance? EU law applies fully in Scotland, but not in England, how does a level playing field work? Fishing waters? EU boats have access to Scottish waters, but can't cross English ones...how do they gain access? Scotland pays membership fees to the EU at the same time as paying off its share of rUK debt. For starters..

Also, if there is a legal dispute between Scotland and England over trading standards, or debt payments, what is the court of arbitration? European Law doesn't apply in England, so who manages the dispute?

Gosh, you mean it might be a bit complicated dissolving a 300 year old relationship just after a nearly 50 year relationship is being dissolved against our will? Who would have thunk it. If only they'd thought about it before embarking on phase one.

Edited December 12, 2020 by welshbairn

[Guest Jedi]

It is undoubtedly in both Scotland and England's best interests to come to an acceptable agreement that doesn't restrict trade with the other. Saying that England could be awkward isn't an argument 'against' Independence, but negotiations still won't necessarily be quick.

The points about an EU Scotland and an outside England are still valid.

 

What happens in the meantime, if in the next 3 or 4 years, once a no deal Brexit really unravels, 'if' Labour approach the next GE being able to blame the Tories entirely for the mess, and propose a post GE referendum on rejoining?

That could potentially be a ref held in 2025, with the disaster which is Brexit meaning that a 'rejoin' victory is more likely. In that scenario there is a possibility of a 'UK' re-entry by the end of the decade.

'If' Labour threw that into the mix, it would have an impact on an Indy Ref as well.

[NotThePars]

That seems magnitudes more fantastical than virtually any Scottish independence outcome I can think up to and including the restoration of the Picts.

[Guest Jedi]

A lot of 'if's, but's, maybe's' without a doubt.

Still stand by the point that Brexit has made Independence much more complicated that it would have been in 2014. 

And there are a lot of 'if's, but's, maybe's' about Scotland's place in the EU now.

For a lot of folk (not all) it seems that Independence comes down to two main points-Get back in the EU,   make sure we don't have a Tory govt.

First one will take time. 2nd one could change in 2024.

[Inanimate Carbon Rod]

1 hour ago, Jedi said:

Don't disagree that the 'benefits' of UK membership aren't there either. And yes, Brexit taking 50 years by Rees-Moggs own admission, and that is probably optimistic. (as there are no benefits). No question that the 'status quo' is done. And would a Tory led Westminster continue to drag us down by 2040?...yes.

Unfortunately however, Brexit has made Independence trickier. We have to be honest that there is no fast track back into the EU, and also that according to the SG's own projections via the Growth Commission that Independence means a bumpy ride economically for at least 10 years. If these elements are out in the open, and a majority vote for Independence....fine, that's democracy. However, I don't want to see a bed of roses Indy proposal put before the people of Scotland next year.

Brexit and the large Tory majority it has brought hangs like a dark shadow over everything else. Its a rock and a hard place. Would Independence benefit Scotland in the long, (long) run...yes, I think so.

However.....there are a good few other variables at play.....we don't know what other economic shocks might appear in the next 10, 20 years. The Tories could lose the next GE, and a Labour govt, if it had any sense of direction could get the UK as a whole back in the EU, while also delivering a proper form of Federalism.

The status quo-dead. Continuing to live under a Brexit, Tory le, Boris Johnson Westminster....unacceptable for Scotland (rightly so). But lets also be honest about all the alternatives to the worst case scenarios (which we have in place at present).

 

 

We could join the free trade area in the same way that Norway has, which would be a massive trade boost whilst we apply for full time membership of the EU. Its not an all or nothing. 

[Inanimate Carbon Rod]

Also lets just commit to joining the Euro, would give a definitive answer on currency. Sorted.