Jump to content
Colkitto

When will indyref2 happen?

Indyref2  

694 members have voted

You do not have permission to vote in this poll, or see the poll results. Please sign in or register to vote in this poll.

Recommended Posts

4 minutes ago, Lex said:

 


Sorry, when did pro independence parties get a majority of the vote?

 

When the Conservatives legislated for a referendum on EU exit, did they get a majority of the vote? They took 36.9% - are you saying they had no right to call that referendum? The referendum was determined by majority of the vote. In the event that the SNP continue to be elected into government in Scotland through a system where it is manifestly more difficult to get an overall majority, they have a cast iron case for delivering any or all elements of their manifesto and it is then for the people to judge them at the next election. 

Maybe you're suggesting every election should carry a +50% share of the vote constraint and that no policy should be enacted without that. 

If there is a pro independence outcome at the next election, there absolutely should be a referendum and then you can have your "majority" question answered  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
When the Conservatives legislated for a referendum on EU exit, did they get a majority of the vote? They took 36.9% - are you saying they had no right to call that referendum? The referendum was determined by majority of the vote. In the event that the SNP continue to be elected into government in Scotland through a system where it is manifestly more difficult to get an overall majority, they have a cast iron case for delivering any or all elements of their manifesto and it is then for the people to judge them at the next election. 
Maybe you're suggesting every election should carry a +50% share of the vote constraint and that no policy should be enacted without that. 
If there is a pro independence outcome at the next election, there absolutely should be a referendum and then you can have your "majority" question answered  


No I didn’t say that. I said that saying that pro independence parties in Scotland carry a majority of the vote is a patent falsehood.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Lex said:

 


No I didn’t say that. I said that saying that pro independence parties in Scotland carry a majority of the vote is a patent falsehood.
 

what's the upshot of this observation?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Lex said:

When did the SNP get a majority of the vote?

 

 

Constituency voting in the Holyrood 2016 election

SNP - 1,059.898

Con -     501,844

Lab -      514,261

Lib -           13,172

The total Constituency votes for the Con/Lab/Lib parties was 1, 029.277

That is around 30,000 votes less than the SNP received.

And that is not counting the pro Independence Green Party constituency votes which obviously would push the SNP total higher. 

I would say that is a Majority for Independence.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Constituency voting in the Holyrood 2016 election
SNP - 1,059.898
Con -     501,844
Lab -      514,261
Lib -           13,172
The total Constituency votes for the Con/Lab/Lib parties was 1, 029.277
That is around 30,000 votes less than the SNP received.
And that is not counting the pro Independence Green Party constituency votes which obviously would push the SNP total higher. 
I would say that is a Majority for Independence.



Epic levels of figure bending there, but fair play for spinning the figures.

I take it you therefore accept that in the two more recent elections (2017 and 2019) that the pro independence parties got a minority of the vote?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
 
I never said anything of the sort. The pro independence parties got 46% of the vote in Scotland in 2019. 45% for the SNP and 1% for the Greens.
 
The pro union parties (everyone else) got 54% of the vote. Of course due to a quirk of the FPTP system and the fact that the independence vote converges around one parry whereas the union vote is split three ways this means we sent 48 nationalist MP’s to Westminster and 11 union supporting MP’s.
 
The point is that to claim that a majority of Scottish people vote for independence supporting parties is patently false.
 
That 54-46% figure is scarily close to a certain poll in 2014...


 
I never said anything of the sort. The pro independence parties got 46% of the vote in Scotland in 2019. 45% for the SNP and 1% for the Greens.
 
The pro union parties (everyone else) got 54% of the vote. Of course due to a quirk of the FPTP system and the fact that the independence vote converges around one parry whereas the union vote is split three ways this means we sent 48 nationalist MP’s to Westminster and 11 union supporting MP’s.
 
The point is that to claim that a majority of Scottish people vote for independence supporting parties is patently false.
 
That 54-46% figure is scarily close to a certain poll in 2014...


Let's extrapolate this. If say Labour changes their opinion on independence and favoured it, then the next election the SNP, Labour and Greens get 55% of the vote, but only say 25/59 seats as the vote is split. The Tories and other unionists get 45% of the vote and the other 34 seats.
There's no hope in hell you'd then be saying there's a mandate for another indyref, you'd just move the goalposts and say the independence supporting parties don't have a majority of seats.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
what's the upshot of this observation?


If more Scottish people are voting for pro union parties than pro independence parties, what do you think this means?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Lex said:

 


No I didn’t say that. I said that saying that pro independence parties in Scotland carry a majority of the vote is a patent falsehood.
 

 

This may be true but if they secure enough of the vote within the context of the framework of the Scottish Parliament, they have a right to enact their policies. The point then is what happens when those policies are enacted. You cannot say for example that all Labour voters favour remaining in the union come what may. That is patently not the case irrespective of the party's position on a policy level. When we have the referendum we'll see where the majority sits. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
what's the upshot of this observation?
It's just Lex dancing on the head of a pin trying to prove a point no one cares about.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Lex said:

 


If more Scottish people are voting for pro union parties than pro independence parties, what do you think this means?

In the parliamentary reality of where those votes go & how important the referendum issue is vs other competing priorities of those voters, f**k all?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Lex said:

 


No I didn’t say that. I said that saying that pro independence parties in Scotland carry a majority of the vote is a patent falsehood.
 

 

In 2016 they got a majority of the vote among parties that crossed the threshold to be elected, with 48.3% of the regional votes to 47.2%. If you chuck in everyone else then yes, I think they come up short but I'm not sure of all the tiny parties' positions on independence.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
This may be true but if they secure enough of the vote within the context of the framework of the Scottish Parliament, they have a right to enact their policies. The point then is what happens when those policies are enacted. You cannot say for example that all Labour voters favour remaining in the union come what may. That is patently not the case irrespective of the party's position on a policy level. When we have the referendum we'll see where the majority sits. 



Could equally point out that not all SNP voters favour independence. There was certainly a good level of Tory tactical voting going on in Scotland in Lab/SNP marginals to get the SNP in and keep Comrade Corbyn out. And it worked.

There will be local issues and levels of tactical voting in every constituency. What we can say with absolute certainty however, is that more Scottish people voted for union supporting parties than independence supporting parties in 2017 and 2019.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Day of the Lords said:
7 minutes ago, MixuFruit said:
what's the upshot of this observation?

It's just Lex dancing on the head of a pin trying to prove a point no one cares about.

Come on - Effie Deans and the rest of the oddballs in the bunker think that is all teh’bly important (only in Scotland, mind - the Brexit vote constituting a technical minority of the population and the Tories carrying it through based on their only winning a minority of the vote - all fine!). 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, SandyCromarty said:

Constituency voting in the Holyrood 2016 election

SNP - 1,059.898

Con -     501,844

Lab -      514,261

Lib -           13,172

The total Constituency votes for the Con/Lab/Lib parties was 1, 029.277

That is around 30,000 votes less than the SNP received.

And that is not counting the pro Independence Green Party constituency votes which obviously would push the SNP total higher. 

I would say that is a Majority for Independence.

You've made an arse of those numbers btw. Worth checking again.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Lex said:


There will be local issues and levels of tactical voting in every constituency. What we can say with absolute certainty however, is that more Scottish people voted for union supporting parties than independence supporting parties in 2017 and 2019.

 

 

Those are Westminster elections in which the biggest issue by far was Brexit, so they're hardly comparable and scarcely even relevant.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, The_Kincardine said:

.

@Gordon EFis, though a normal Natter.  Driven by identity and grudge.

I'm going to assume self-awareness is very much not your thing.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, Lex said:

Could equally point out that not all SNP voters favour independence. There was certainly a good level of Tory tactical voting going on in Scotland in Lab/SNP marginals to get the SNP in and keep Comrade Corbyn out. And it worked.

There will be local issues and levels of tactical voting in every constituency. What we can say with absolute certainty however, is that more Scottish people voted for union supporting parties than independence supporting parties in 2017 and 2019.

Actually agree with Lex here, to a certain extent. Elections are not referendums. We can't claim that a majority of people in Scotland voted for independence supporting parties in recent elections.

Independence might be the main issue in Scottish politics but it's not the only one. Some indpendence supporters for for unionist parties and some unionists vote for independence supporting parties.

The simple fact is that if the Scottish parliament has a majority of MSPs who support a referendum, that is a mandate and there should be a referendum. If it doesn't there shouldn't be one. That's democracy, if people in Scotland don't want another referendum, there's an incredibly simple mechanism to achieve that... vote for a party who're opposed to that at Holyrood elections.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, jamamafegan said:

I once upon a time made a thread in this forum asking no voters to convince us all that voting no is the right thing to do. After all, the onus is on them to do so seeing as the sensible majority have voted for a party who’s primary goal is to deliver Scottish independence in the past few elections now.

Stormzy’s main reasons from what I’ve seen are:

- I’m content with the way things are and
- it was a once in a generation vote

These are piss poor reasons for arguing the case of the Union. It’s especially bad that this is all Stormzy came armed with when he entered this “cesspit” to tell everyone they were having a “circle jerk” (lol).

Lots of growing up to do for the wee man.

This might be alright if I desired genuine discussion from this place. 

I love that you think the onus is on the Unionists to convince the other side though, I think you vastly underestimate the good old silent majority that would of course need to be convinced to change the status quo. 

You have an insincere understanding of party politics too re the SNP and majorities, wee man. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites


If more Scottish people are voting for pro union parties than pro independence parties, what do you think this means?
I think it means that a percentage of folk who believe in independence aren't voting for the SNP or the Greens. Polling bears that out.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
This might be alright if I desired genuine discussion from this place.


Seeing as that’s the mindset you’ve had since you decided to post in here, I suggest you take your absolutely god awful reasons for supporting a failing union and f**k off.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...