Kejan Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 Carlaw really is the stereotypical Jack(son) of all, master of none, salesman types. Hopefully he stays in post and him along with Johnson in London,gets the Tories back to pulling under 20% in elections. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GordonS Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 13 hours ago, Diamond. Dave said: Personally reading these politics forums it's silly the way people keep referring to mysterious polls and surveys. Polls are subject to great bias even polls created by so called neutral organisations. Most polls have no validity whatsoever in public opinion unless they are done on a large scale and even then are often wrong. Total waste of time. This is so far from reality it's simply amazing. Can you give any examples of why you came to this way of thinking? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gordon EF Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 13 hours ago, Diamond. Dave said: Personally reading these politics forums it's silly the way people keep referring to mysterious polls and surveys. Polls are subject to great bias even polls created by so called neutral organisations. Most polls have no validity whatsoever in public opinion unless they are done on a large scale and even then are often wrong. Total waste of time. When you say wrong do you mean 20% off, 10% off, 5% off or just not being correct down to points of a percentage? Polling tends to be very accurate. If you could find some aggregate study that shows polls are "often" inaccurate, I'd be interested in seeing that. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joey Jo Jo Junior Shabadoo Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 7 minutes ago, Gordon EF said: When you say wrong do you mean 20% off, 10% off, 5% off or just not being correct down to points of a percentage? Polling tends to be very accurate. If you could find some aggregate study that shows polls are "often" inaccurate, I'd be interested in seeing that. I assume it's the school of thought that if everything is not exactly as predicted (even if it is well within any standard error) then any prediction by anyone can be disregarded. Also used to ignore any economists opinions (unless these opinions agree with their own) because "none of them" predicted the crash (and the exact nature of the crash) of the late 00s. I'm sure this school of thought is also applied to many of the 'expert' fields to justify prejudged opinions. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gordon EF Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 23 minutes ago, Joey Jo Jo Junior Shabadoo said: I assume it's the school of thought that if everything is not exactly as predicted (even if it is well within any standard error) then any prediction by anyone can be disregarded. Also used to ignore any economists opinions (unless these opinions agree with their own) because "none of them" predicted the crash (and the exact nature of the crash) of the late 00s. I'm sure this school of thought is also applied to many of the 'expert' fields to justify prejudged opinions. Aye, it's pretty standard 'da logic'. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joey Jo Jo Junior Shabadoo Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 (edited) 7 minutes ago, Gordon EF said: Aye, it's pretty standard 'da logic'. I predict I'm going to have a cigarette in 1 minute, when I spark one in 70 seconds time it automatically gives some people a justification to disregard everyone who happens to be in my field's views on anything. Very frustrating and absolute fucking nonsense. But there we go. ETA: 60 seconds on the dot. I'm trustworthy. Edited July 9, 2020 by Joey Jo Jo Junior Shabadoo 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bairnardo Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 People are sick of experts doing polls 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SandyCromarty Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 13 hours ago, Wee Bully said: They exist in more numbers there than in Shoreditch. This is the type of thing that could be the rebirth of towns like Ayr for instance. What I’m suggesting is that a house with working space (a spare room / home office) further out from the centre will be more attractive than before, as the commute is less of a factor going forward. However, I will bow to your superior abilities in predicting economic events. Did you ever get your money back on the Northern Rock shares? I do know that estate agents offices here in Inverness are inundated with phone calls from southern Scotland and especially england with people looking for properties throughout the Highlands so as to re-locate. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
O'Kelly Isley III Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 I do know that estate agents offices here in Inverness are inundated with phone calls from southern Scotland and especially england with people looking for properties throughout the Highlands so as to re-locate.Which further dilutes the independence vote.... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SandyCromarty Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 2 hours ago, O'Kelly Isley III said: 4 hours ago, SandyCromarty said: I do know that estate agents offices here in Inverness are inundated with phone calls from southern Scotland and especially england with people looking for properties throughout the Highlands so as to re-locate. Which further dilutes the independence vote.... At a present pro Independence 54% as against 46% they will hardly make a dent in our numbers which is getting stronger daily. No doubt you and your like have been phoning estate agents in the south of england with a view to relocate when we achieve Independence? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Lambies Doos Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 At a present pro Independence 54% as against 46% they will hardly make a dent in our numbers which is getting stronger daily. No doubt you and your like have been phoning estate agents in the south of england with a view to relocate when we achieve Independence?To be honest, Scotland is riddled with glorious failures. If a poll on eve of referendum has Yes any less than 60%, I genuinely wouldn't have the confidence that the Scottish people would drive this home... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ludo*1 Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 Must admit, I'm absolutely shit scared about a second referendum. At the moment, I can always live on in hope that we'll be independent. If the vote came round again and we shat the bed again I dunno if I'd be able to take that tbh. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SandyCromarty Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 39 minutes ago, Ludo*1 said: Must admit, I'm absolutely shit scared about a second referendum. At the moment, I can always live on in hope that we'll be independent. If the vote came round again and we shat the bed again I dunno if I'd be able to take that tbh. Courage Mon Brave! As the old saying goes 'Faint Heart never fecked a pig'. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diamond. Dave Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 16 hours ago, Gordon EF said: When you say wrong do you mean 20% off, 10% off, 5% off or just not being correct down to points of a percentage? Polling tends to be very accurate. If you could find some aggregate study that shows polls are "often" inaccurate, I'd be interested in seeing that. Polls are usually just a random reflection of opinions. Of course they can be useful and give a general idea but that's all. It's pretty stupid to take a 'public' opinion poll of 100 people off the street then apply it to a whole country. Which plenty do because they don't know or think about it that way. Polls can easily be biased either intentionally or unintenionally and unless you know how the polls been designed with sampling etc and its on a large scale then it can easily be misleading. Too many people take the word of poorly designed polls that can't be applied widely and allow it to mislead and influence them in the wrong way. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wee Bully Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 Polls are usually just a random reflection of opinions. Of course they can be useful and give a general idea but that's all. It's pretty stupid to take a 'public' opinion poll of 100 people off the street then apply it to a whole country. Which plenty do because they don't know or think about it that way. Polls can easily be biased either intentionally or unintenionally and unless you know how the polls been designed with sampling etc and its on a large scale then it can easily be misleading. Too many people take the word of poorly designed polls that can't be applied widely and allow it to mislead and influence them in the wrong way. Do you think these (there have been 2) Panelbase polls were conducted on “100 people off the street”? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renton Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 40 minutes ago, Diamond. Dave said: Polls are usually just a random reflection of opinions. Of course they can be useful and give a general idea but that's all. It's pretty stupid to take a 'public' opinion poll of 100 people off the street then apply it to a whole country. Which plenty do because they don't know or think about it that way. Polls can easily be biased either intentionally or unintenionally and unless you know how the polls been designed with sampling etc and its on a large scale then it can easily be misleading. Too many people take the word of poorly designed polls that can't be applied widely and allow it to mislead and influence them in the wrong way. You don't understand this. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SandyCromarty Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 54 minutes ago, Diamond. Dave said: Polls are usually just a random reflection of opinions. Of course they can be useful and give a general idea but that's all. It's pretty stupid to take a 'public' opinion poll of 100 people off the street then apply it to a whole country. Which plenty do because they don't know or think about it that way. Polls can easily be biased either intentionally or unintenionally and unless you know how the polls been designed with sampling etc and its on a large scale then it can easily be misleading. Too many people take the word of poorly designed polls that can't be applied widely and allow it to mislead and influence them in the wrong way. Independence is inevitable regardless of polls. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMDP Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 1 hour ago, Diamond. Dave said: Polls are usually just a random reflection of opinions. Of course they can be useful and give a general idea but that's all. It's pretty stupid to take a 'public' opinion poll of 100 people off the street then apply it to a whole country. Which plenty do because they don't know or think about it that way. Polls can easily be biased either intentionally or unintenionally and unless you know how the polls been designed with sampling etc and its on a large scale then it can easily be misleading. Too many people take the word of poorly designed polls that can't be applied widely and allow it to mislead and influence them in the wrong way. I think you're mixing opinion polling up with family fortunes questions tbh. Always good to see that you can miss a few days in here but Kincy will be ten sheets to the wind and posting. Keep fighting the good fight brother, hope the hangover isn't that bad. -2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
O'Kelly Isley III Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 At a present pro Independence 54% as against 46% they will hardly make a dent in our numbers which is getting stronger daily. No doubt you and your like have been phoning estate agents in the south of england with a view to relocate when we achieve Independence?Let this be a lesson to you to cool your jets. I'm an Independence supporter and my comment was BEMOANING the likelihood of a further influx of Unionists.Having said that I'm well aware that there are many incomers to Scotland who are supportive of a self-governing nation, and equally there are far too many self-loathing native born Scots, but on balance I'd be wary of any sizeable influx intent on bolstering the Union. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeeTillEhDeh Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 I'm just going to vote really early then kidnap my no voting parents for the day this timeI don't know about other people but there has been a significant shift in my own family since 2014. I will obviously shift - from spoiling my paper to a Yes. My Wife voted No in 2014 but is a firm Yes now - Sturgeon has been a major reason for that change. My Dad and Step-Mum both voted No last time but are now firmly in the Yes camp.I'll just need to make sure my No-voting Mum and Step-Dad are away on one of their month-long cruises.My Brother and Sister in Law are still both Yes.My Sister and her partner have both shifted from No to Yes.So the shift is :2014Yes - 2No - 7Spoiled - 1INDYREF2Yes - 8No - 2 -1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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