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When will indyref2 happen?


Colkitto

Indyref2  

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3 hours ago, ayrmad said:

I've not witnessed any material change, we're still waiting to see if May and her pals bottle it before we contemplate anything.

The longer this goes on the ore I think May will try to circumvent the decision to leave the EU.

This would be a good decision for the UK but not for the Scottish Independence campaign.  However it would be a huge blow to the democratic process.

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The longer this goes on the ore I think May will try to circumvent the decision to leave the EU.

This would be a good decision for the UK but not for the Scottish Independence campaign.  However it would be a huge blow to the democratic process.




Can't see it. Not only would half the country be raging but it would also split her party right down the middle. Not going to happen. Tories voted 65% to leave. If the phrase political suicide had to be used then it would be for that.
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If Scotland has no appetite for Indy2 in the current circumstances, which it hasn't its not happening. Apart from obsessed roasters on here no one even talks about it.Wee Nippy should call it now,lose it again and then we can move on.The funny thing is i reckon the roasters know in their hearts its not happening.Deep in their bones they ken really...

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54 minutes ago, Loondave1 said:

If Scotland has no appetite for Indy2 in the current circumstances, which it hasn't its not happening. Apart from obsessed roasters on here no one even talks about it.Wee Nippy should call it now,lose it again and then we can move on.The funny thing is i reckon the roasters know in their hearts its not happening.Deep in their bones they ken really...

A grammatical catastrophe and personal slights.

Bread and butter to UKOK types.

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If Scotland has no appetite for Indy2 in the current circumstances, which it hasn't its not happening. Apart from obsessed roasters on here no one even talks about it.Wee Nippy should call it now,lose it again and then we can move on.The funny thing is i reckon the roasters know in their hearts its not happening.Deep in their bones they ken really...



I think deep down in the unionists bones they all kehn Indy is happening one day, hence posts like this, CALL IT NOW CAUSE ITLL LOSE AND WE CAN FORGET ABOUT IT!!!!!!!

When they all kehn it won't be called until Sturgeon and the SNP kehn were winning it.

It's great
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Unionists are kidding themselves if they think any Yes voters are changing their minds but I do think Scotland's financial situation has to be roughly on par with the UK's to get this through. Objectively speaking, different parts of the argument from back then have been won and lost on each side.

The SNP's economic argument from 2014 will work against them (constitutionally, they're fine electorally) as long as Scotland's finances lag behind the UK's. You could fairly argue about the relative strength of both economies for most of the build up to 2014, hence why things like GERS figures were barely reported. Now things are clearly more challenging. Oil is just a bonus, £x better off per person, xth richest country on earth etc. These are statements that will sting the Yes side if the campaign started tomorrow.

The opposite can be said of much of the ideological arguments. More in common with North of England, no political difference between England and Scotland, Labour will be back in soon, there won't even be an EU Referendum, only way to stay in Europe is to vote No, the Vow. These are Yes's told you so's.

The debates of the first Referendum really ended up boiling down to 'can' Scotland be an Independent country, rather than 'should'. To the people who can swing it next time, the No side is winning the 'can' argument and Yes is winning the 'should'.

It's a really big challenge in the circumstances and I'm not holding my breath over it - but the SNP's target must be to use it's limited powers to restore Scotland to economic parity/superiority relatve to the UK. Achieve that and it's game over.

 

Edited by Alan Stubbs
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52 minutes ago, 1320Lichtie said:

 


I think deep down in the unionists bones they all kehn Indy is happening one day, hence posts like this, CALL IT NOW CAUSE ITLL LOSE AND WE CAN FORGET ABOUT IT!!!!!!!

 

I doubt most Unionists believe if another referendum was won tomorrow the debate would be left alone. Even if No won 20 times in a row there would still be a demand for another one.

That said, I think the chance of Yes winning is far less now than was in the previous referendum. It's been proven No was the correct decision. You may disagree but the 55% know it and I'm sure some of the Yes voters believe that, too.

65%-35%. :)

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The obvious problem is that the powers that have been devolved are (for the most part) useless to use, without having control over other aspects of the economy which the Scottish Government currently don't. Altering certain tax structures, without being able to compensate by altering others is completely unworkable. That's why the economic policies in Scotland won't really change at all with the current power devolution settlement.

The UK Government knows this full well. They're trying to push the Scottish Government into "using their grand new powers". Knowing full well that if they do, it will cause more harm than good without having control over other powers. On the other hand, if they don't use these new powers, the UK Government can use that as a beating stick as well.

Until Scotland has full fiscal control over it's own economic matters, there will continue to be a steady economic decline with a growing budget deficit. The UK Government will use this to highlight Scotland's dependency of the UK Treasury. When in reality, the money being borrowed isn't even originating from there, it's just passing through.

Edited by Cream Cheese
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