When will indyref2 happen?

[Ira Gaines]

Mintermind

[BawWatchin]

30 minutes ago, Mastermind said:

But I thought the SNP had twenty million new members and Tommy Sheridan screened Braveheart? This is a long journey.

They have the 2nd largest party membership in the UK with only 8.1% of the UK population share to represent. If their current membership success was replicated throughout the whole of the UK, their membership would be somewhere between 1.5 and 1.6 million.

 

[dirty dingus]

38 minutes ago, Mastermind said:

 

But I thought the SNP had twenty million new members and Tommy Sheridan screened Braveheart? This is a long journey.

 

Oh Mintermind your fantastic.   

[DeeTillEhDeh]

What rock have all these shite trolls crawled out from?

[The_Kincardine]

3 hours ago, NotThePars said:

Don't think it's possible for a party based in a country of around 6 million people to have 20 million+ members.

There's a calculator salesman in a major city in southern Spain who'd take you to task on this...

[O'Kelly Isley III]

22 hours ago, sparky88 said:

Sturgeon wont call a referendum unless it is clearly winnable in any case. And we are a considerable distance away from that in the polls.

In some eyes yes, but Brexit isn't even off the first tee yet and we already know that whatever deal is cobbled it will be detrimental to almost voter in Scotland.  In further news, every time Arlene Foster opens her pus another 10,000 consider that switch to 'Yes'.

All to play for Sparky.

[topcat(The most tip top)]

22 hours ago, Principal Flutie said:

The risk is worth it if they aren't certain of a win.

Which in turn would mean it wouldn't be a risk.

 

[topcat(The most tip top)]

22 hours ago, sparky88 said:

A consistent lead in the poll of maybe 60%. The odd poll showing Yes is a couple of percentage points behind isnt good enough. Otherwise, she has the referendum, yes lose and Scottish independence is off the table indefinitely.

So you were using "clearly winnable" in the sense of "very unlikely to lose"

You can see how people may have misinterpreted that

[AUFC90]

If the UK leaves the EU then the border and the right to live and work in rUK become live issues in another referendum.

That's is going to be a bigger deal than the opinions of politicians on the continent.

I'll still remain a UK citizen and thus have the right to live and work in rUK. Will I want to though ? Will i f**k

 

[AUFC90]

 
I prefer England to Brussels. They subsidise us, not of us them, and have 80% of our trade and commerce - not sub 15%. Those auld tadgers know more than you maybe. 

Please explain how Scotland being a richer more prosperous area than every region in the UK except London and the SE is us being subsidised. More like we're subsidising every shitehole from Newcastle to Cornwall.

[John Lambies Doos]

I'll still remain a UK citizen and thus have the right to live and work in rUK. Will i though ? Will i f**k

Of course, you will be free to travel and work in England, Wales and NI

[AUFC90]

Of course, you will be free to travel and work in England, Wales and NI

I know. What i meant was will i want to haha. Ill edit it

[welshbairn]

On 09/10/2018 at 16:04, sparky88 said:

A consistent lead in the poll of maybe 60%. The odd poll showing Yes is a couple of percentage points behind isnt good enough. Otherwise, she has the referendum, yes lose and Scottish independence is off the table indefinitely.

The last referendum went from 30% to 45% during the campaign. If we wait for a steady 60% there will probably never be another chance in a generation anyway. The timing is crucial, but is always going to be a gamble. I'd say as soon as the final deal on Brexit is clear. Throw another mix in the chaos and see what we come out with.

[John Lambies Doos]

The last referendum went from 30% to 45% during the campaign. If we wait for a steady 60% there will probably never be another chance in a generation anyway. The timing is crucial, but is always going to be a gamble. I'd say as soon as the final deal on Brexit is clear. Throw another mix in the chaos and see what we come out with.

This.

[Antlion]

57 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

The last referendum went from 30% to 45% during the campaign. If we wait for a steady 60% there will probably never be another chance in a generation anyway. The timing is crucial, but is always going to be a gamble. I'd say as soon as the final deal on Brexit is clear. Throw another mix in the chaos and see what we come out with.

Leaning towards this myself. There’s a risk of falling into a shitebag situation of dewy-eyed “one day, oh, one day” wistfulness about the whole issue.

[NotThePars]

11 minutes ago, ThatBoyRonaldo said:

I don't claim to be sure of what the SNP's strategy should be but I think we are probably in it for the long haul. The comparator for me would be the 1979 and 1997 referenda, which was very narrowly yes in 79 then overwhelmingly yes in 97. The intervening 18 years had seen opinion decisively shift over time not necessarily as a result of one particular event but the cumulative effect of Tory government, industrial decline etc and the cultural changes that went along with that. I don't think we have had a comparable shift in public opinion in the 4 years since 2014.

Good to see you representing my man Antonio with these thoughts. 

[welshbairn]

17 minutes ago, ThatBoyRonaldo said:

The problem with that approach is that there's always the chance that voters will see the clusterfuck that Brexit has been and think major constitutional change is never as easy as its proponents make out. The UKs behaviour in particular during the Brexit negotiations make clear that you could hardly expect it to act rationally during any potential independence negotiations, particularly given the chaos it would throw rUK politics into.

You've also got the issue that the Tories are quite clearly not going to give the legal permission for a second referendum any time soon - at the very least we are going to have to fight an election on the specific question of "give us a mandate to hold a second referendum" before they budge on that, and even then there's no guarantee they would. May et al will have viewed their policy of "now is not the time" as basically successful at this point, given support for independence is basically the same as it's ever been since the referendum. Corbyn's Labour similarly won't grant the permission, and any attempt by the SNP to make it a condition of supporting a Corbyn UK government will be rejected - the message will be 'let the Tories back in if you dare'.

Even then, the idea that once we are in another referendum campaign the numbers will shoot right up doesn't ring true to me - we don't have the same element of newness that we had in indyref1. People aren't coming to the debate undecided at this point - we've had nearly a decade of politics where independence has been THE issue and I think most voters are relatively set in their position on it now.

I don't claim to be sure of what the SNP's strategy should be but I think we are probably in it for the long haul. The comparator for me would be the 1979 and 1997 referenda, which was very narrowly yes in 79 then overwhelmingly yes in 97. The intervening 18 years had seen opinion decisively shift over time not necessarily as a result of one particular event but the cumulative effect of Tory government, industrial decline etc and the cultural changes that went along with that. I don't think we have had a comparable shift in public opinion in the 4 years since 2014.

I'm in 2 minds. Throw a spanner in the works when the world's in chaos, like @NotThePars ' Lenin did during a war with Germany, with zero guarantee of success, or gradually trying to negotiate powers by grabbing them whenever we have leverage in Westminster until we're independent in all but name, also with zero guarantee of success. If we wait until Brexit is a done deal and relative normality is restored (hopefully), there would be no appetite for an indy ref for a long long time imo.

 

Edited October 10, 2018 by welshbairn

[DeeTillEhDeh]

The last referendum went from 30% to 45% during the campaign. If we wait for a steady 60% there will probably never be another chance in a generation anyway. The timing is crucial, but is always going to be a gamble. I'd say as soon as the final deal on Brexit is clear. Throw another mix in the chaos and see what we come out with.

This.

Over a sustained campaign the No vote was shown to be very soft - I still think there's a significant part of that support that could be persuaded to shift if the Brexit deal turns out to be the great big steaming turd we all think it will be.

[Jambo99]

10 minutes ago, DeeTillEhDeh said:

This.

Over a sustained campaign the No vote was shown to be very soft - I still think there's a significant part of that support that could be persuaded to shift if the Brexit deal turns out to be the great big steaming turd we all think it will be.

The next Scottish referendum will be in 2050 or thereabouts. 

It is done in my time, Imo. 

[Jambo99]

You Scottish Nationalists have your stuff. That isn't going away. 

But there is no guts for another referendum. None whatsoever. Not one shred of momentum.

It is done, it is over, the decision was made. 

Edited October 10, 2018 by Jambo99