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When will indyref2 happen?

Indyref2  

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  1. 1. When will indyref 2 take place?



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Not sure what your point is? I'll be going over to spend time with family and friends at important part of our year, celebrate our kinship, good food good grog, good laughs, what's not to like!?

The attendees for one.

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My point is you just completely contradicted yourself.

Sorry in what way? Best get back on topic then though eh?

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I feel like there are members of my own immediately family I don't know as well as Rob on account of the constant "why would I be seething mate, going over to *completely unneccesary personal detail*, few beers in the sun, love it :) " posts.

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Doesn't matter one iota if it happens tomorrow, or more likely, in well over a decade. The people will vote to keep the union.

Perhaps we should throw a few caveats at the next one, similar to what the Tories are proposing with EU Ref.

After all, if we'd restricted the vote last year to Scottish people only, Yes would have cantered it.

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After all, if we'd restricted the vote last year to Scottish people only, Yes would have cantered it.

Nothing like a bit of ethnic nationalism on a Friday morning.

An iScotland where only proper Scottish people get a say. What a terrifying prospect.

Also. Tell me your definition of a 'Scottish' person. Someone born here? Someone who's spent most of their life here? And what's your source for claiming that a Scottish people only referendum (sounds like something from 30's Germany) would have resulted in a yes vote?

Edited by Lex

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Nothing like a bit of ethnic nationalism on a Friday morning.

An iScotland where only proper Scottish people get a say. What a terrifying prospect.

Also. Tell me your definition of a 'Scottish' person. Someone born here? Someone who's spent most of their life here? And what's your source for claiming that a Scottish people only referendum (sounds like something from 30's Germany) would have resulted in a yes vote?

Isn't that the kind of franchise your boy Cameron is proposing for the EU referendum?

Edinburgh Uni's study of referendum voting showed Yes ahead in all age groups up to 40-49 where it was tied and after which it went massively no, they also broke it down by nationality and showed that Scots born came out something like 53% yes, with EU born at 41% yes and other UK born 20% Yes. While Yes was also higher in lower percentile earnings (although there was little correlation in terms of educational attainment, believe it or not) It's a slightly sensitive subject and to the credit of the SNP that they don't bang on about it, and indeed in controlling the franchise made sure that everyone who lives here was given a say, but Fide is right - had the franchise been restricted to Scots born/Scots domiciled, which is not beyond the realms of decency, then Scotland would've returned a Yes vote.

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Its way beyond the realms of decency in a referendum about secession.

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Isn't that the kind of franchise your boy Cameron is proposing for the EU referendum?

Edinburgh Uni's study of referendum voting showed Yes ahead in all age groups up to 40-49 where it was tied and after which it went massively no, they also broke it down by nationality and showed that Scots born came out something like 53% yes, with EU born at 41% yes and other UK born 20% Yes. While Yes was also higher in lower percentile earnings (although there was little correlation in terms of educational attainment, believe it or not) It's a slightly sensitive subject and to the credit of the SNP that they don't bang on about it, and indeed in controlling the franchise made sure that everyone who lives here was given a say, but Fide is right - had the franchise been restricted to Scots born/Scots domiciled, which is not beyond the realms of decency, then Scotland would've returned a Yes vote.

By ' Edinburgh University's study ' is that an actual poll?

What was their sample size?

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Nothing like a bit of ethnic nationalism on a Friday morning.

An iScotland where only proper Scottish people get a say. What a terrifying prospect.

Also. Tell me your definition of a 'Scottish' person. Someone born here? Someone who's spent most of their life here? And what's your source for claiming that a Scottish people only referendum (sounds like something from 30's Germany) would have resulted in a yes vote?

Which is precisely what your chums in the Tories are looking to do in the EU referendum.

If only Westminster was as inclusive and welcoming as the SNP, eh?

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By ' Edinburgh University's study ' is that an actual poll?

What was their sample size?

yeah they did polling, sample size was 3,000 I think. There was a thread on it here as well. reasonably similar to the Ashcroft/YG exit polling in most respects.

edit to add: it was a 3 wave polling study carried out by YG, sample size was 4849 in wave 1 and 3719 in wave 2.

Splits were (Y/N):

nationality

Scots born (52.7/47.3)

Other UK (27.9/72.1)

EU (42.9/57.1)

religion:

Protestant-Presbyterian (40.9/59.1)

Protestant-Episcopalian (18.4/81.6)

Catholic (56/44)

Other (48.7/51.3)

None (atheist/agnostic) (54.1/45.9)

Sex

Men (53.2/46.8 )

Women (43.4/56.6)

By Age:

16-19 (62.5/37.5)

20-24(51.4/48.6)

25-29 (55.2/44..8 )

30-39 (53.9/46.1)

40-49 (50.6/49.4)

50-59 (47.1/52.9)

60-69 (43.7/56.3)

70+ (34.3/65.7)

Edited by renton

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Its way beyond the realms of decency in a referendum about secession.

Not hugely so, as I said, I'm glad they did the franchise as it was, I'd rather lose 45/55 polling everyone than winning a referendum run on clearly ethic nationalist standards. However, it's clearly one way they could've run it, and it wouldn't be beyond the pale - witness the proposed EU referendum franchise.

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Not hugely so, as I said, I'm glad they did the franchise as it was, I'd rather lose 45/55 polling everyone than winning a referendum run on clearly ethic nationalist standards. However, it's clearly one way they could've run it, and it wouldn't be beyond the pale - witness the proposed EU referendum franchise.

It wouldn't have been ratified by Westminster with such a restrictive franchise. Wouldnt have had legal status and any 'win' would in effect be the same as a UDI and good luck with that.

It was never an option for the SNP. And it would have been suicide anyway given their predeliction for painting themselves as a party that wants more immigration.

Anyone who seeks to break the result down into ethnic groups to make a point is an utter scumbag. As proven by various threads on here.

What next? If we didn't let women vote it would have been Yes. Maybe the SNP can try that next time.

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It wouldn't have been ratified by Westminster with such a restrictive franchise. Wouldnt have had legal status and any 'win' would in effect be the same as a UDI and good luck with that.

It was never an option for the SNP. And it would have been suicide anyway given their predeliction for painting themselves as a party that wants more immigration.

Anyone who seeks to break the result down into ethnic groups to make a point is an utter scumbag. As proven by various threads on here.

What next? If we didn't let women vote it would have been Yes. Maybe the SNP can try that next time.

Well aye, as I said I'd rather lose it the way we did than win it via a restrictive franchise.

As for the point about women, it's not quite the same thing, clearly there is a case - a nasty, small minded, parochial case - for a franchise about the future of a nation restricted to those of that nationality. It's the definition of nationality that becomes tricky, clearly the SNP did it the right way, the moral case for including anyone domiciled there is clearly strong.

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yeah they did polling, sample size was 3,000 I think. There was a thread on it here as well. reasonably similar to the Ashcroft/YG exit polling in most respects.

edit to add: it was a 3 wave polling study carried out by YG, sample size was 4849 in wave 1 and 3719 in wave 2.

Splits were (Y/N):

nationality

Scots born (52.7/47.3)

Other UK (27.9/72.1)

EU (42.9/57.1)

religion:

Protestant-Presbyterian (40.9/59.1)

Protestant-Episcopalian (18.4/81.6)

Catholic (56/44)

Other (48.7/51.3)

None (atheist/agnostic) (54.1/45.9)

Sex

Men (53.2/46.8 )

Women (43.4/56.6)

By Age:

16-19 (62.5/37.5)

20-24(51.4/48.6)

25-29 (55.2/44..8 )

30-39 (53.9/46.1)

40-49 (50.6/49.4)

50-59 (47.1/52.9)

60-69 (43.7/56.3)

70+ (34.3/65.7)

Not really a canter then. 3% margin of error in polling, and among Scots born the 'winning' margin is within the margin of error.

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It allows the nasty ethnic nat contingent to get an outing, so it actually serves a purpose.

As you say its to the credit of the wider independence movement that these horrible creatures are just a minority chirping from the sidelines.

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Which is precisely what your chums in the Tories are looking to do in the EU referendum.

If only Westminster was as inclusive and welcoming as the SNP, eh?

I am against that fwiw. Not that it will make much difference, I don't think there's any chance of us voting to leave the EU. All the major parties - SNP included - will be campaigning for us to vote to stay in.

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Not really a canter then. 3% margin of error in polling, and among Scots born the 'winning' margin is within the margin of error.

Actually on that size of poll Its down to nearer 1.5%.

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