When will indyref2 happen?

[williemillersmoustache]

8 minutes ago, sophia said:

I haven't been following too closely but if this gets J Cherry agitated, I'd not be be at all perturbed 

I don't know where Flynn and Black stand on the need to make everything about genitals. Which suggests to me a certain level of competence and maturity. 

[betting competition]

18 minutes ago, williemillersmoustache said:

Stephen Flynn, new Westminster leader.

Mhairi Black, deputy. 

I would have preferred Alison Thewliss to be honest, a safer pair of hands but on the other hand I anticipate a rather more aggressive stance from these two, some #scenes but also some mistakes too. 

Happy that Mhari Black is deputy, her speech on the f-word was fantastic. Potential for either to run for leadership after Sturgeon leaves. 

[williemillersmoustache]

5 minutes ago, betting competition said:

Happy that Mhari Black is deputy, her speech on the f-word was fantastic. Potential for either to run for leadership after Sturgeon leaves. 

That was an f-ing brilliant speech. Very disappointed at its lack of coverage at the time and, there was a podcast released recently on the subject that would 100% have benefitted from a mention of this. Ignored. Too Scottish. 

Edited December 6, 2022 by williemillersmoustache

[Caledonian1]

Anyone else think the goalscorer looks like an Iberian John McGinn

[git-intae-thum]

Just now, Caledonian1 said:

Anyone else think the goalscorer looks like an Iberian John McGinn

wrong forum bud

[Caledonian1]

9 minutes ago, git-intae-thum said:

wrong forum bud

Are you so sure.....Gordon Broon unbelievably just got a mention during the Portugal v Switzerland game....its all too confusing

[betting competition]

Joanna Cherry looks happy 

Edited December 6, 2022 by betting competition

[Granny Danger]

1 hour ago, williemillersmoustache said:

I don't know where Flynn and Black stand on the need to make everything about genitals. Which suggests to me a certain level of competence and maturity. 

Sexuality should not matter but Black being gay will undermine Cherry even further on the transgender issue.

ETA I don’t know a lot about Flynn but Black’s politics seem firmly on the left which is exactly what is needed.

Edited December 6, 2022 by Granny Danger

[strichener]

3 hours ago, git-intae-thum said:

Although the SNP have undeniably and inconceivably dragged heels on this, I think they are gradually moving away from the sterlingisation plan. Adopting a new currency, preferably as close after the end of a transition period, is the sensible option. It allows the aforementioned levers of control.

With regard to deficit, most of Europe (apart from some notable examples remarkably similar to Scotland) have consistently run deficit for a number of years. An actual annual deficit is not that important. 

What is important is the level of annual deficit.....and whether like the UK's it becomes structured long term into the public economy and therefore leaves the country heading towards a slow and steady decline.

Obviously current GERs figures cannot and should not be used to base presumptions on the finances of an independent Scotland.

So with a lack of accurate figures we are left with a red herring argument.

If I was to wager though......given that Scotland is an energy resource rich, advanced and varied exporting economy with a positive BofP and GDP comparable to similar sized European nations, and if it adopted a West European spend model..... I don't think any deficit at independence will be too far off the regional averages.

 

 

Again, we are not left with a red herring argument.  The resources have already been sold off, including by the Scottish Government.  Although GERS may not be reliable for what happens after independence, I think anyone that looks at the UK borrowing requirements and thinks that Scotland can somehow be different from day 1 is living an alternative reality.

There is no indication that Scotland would suddenly be able to remove the structural deficit without swinging cuts to services or tax rises or emulating the UK with massive borrowings.  If it is the later then we then need to look at what rates we would be able to borrow the money at and if we have sterling then it would be at rates of UK+% making our borrowing less affordable.

[DeeTillEhDeh]

Again, we are not left with a red herring argument.  The resources have already been sold off, including by the Scottish Government.  Although GERS may not be reliable for what happens after independence, I think anyone that looks at the UK borrowing requirements and thinks that Scotland can somehow be different from day 1 is living an alternative reality.
There is no indication that Scotland would suddenly be able to remove the structural deficit without swinging cuts to services or tax rises or emulating the UK with massive borrowings.  If it is the later then we then need to look at what rates we would be able to borrow the money at and if we have sterling then it would be at rates of UK+% making our borrowing less affordable.

GERS isn't even reliable for the current constitutional setup.

And certainly is completely meaningless if you are looking at the economics of independence.

[D Angelo Barksdale]

Thewliss was Sturgeon's candidate so it was a lose/lose situation for Cherry.

[strichener]

5 hours ago, DeeTillEhDeh said:

GERS isn't even reliable for the current constitutional setup.

And certainly is completely meaningless if you are looking at the economics of independence.

I was only addressing the point made.  I agree with you about GERS however only a fool would think that we are currently not running a deficit that would need to be addressed by the independent Scotland using Sterling.

[DeeTillEhDeh]

I was only addressing the point made.  I agree with you about GERS however only a fool would think that we are currently not running a deficit that would need to be addressed by the independent Scotland using Sterling.

Most countries run a deficit - iScotland wouldn't be any different.

In terms of currency there's been some real nonsense spoken by the extremes on both sides. The reality is that even if we went to an iCurrency and an independent central bank this wouldn't happen overnight - just look at the breakup of Czechoslovakia - although both had their separate currencies swiftly established it took 9 years to set up their independent central banks.

That's not an argument against independence but the reality that any move to independence is not instantaneous but a transitional process.

Some of the arguments put up are more to do with opponents of independence focusing on worst case scenarios than the realpolitik that would kick in if there was a Yes vote.

[strichener]

35 minutes ago, DeeTillEhDeh said:

Most countries run a deficit - iScotland wouldn't be any different.

In terms of currency there's been some real nonsense spoken by the extremes on both sides. The reality is that even if we went to an iCurrency and an independent central bank this wouldn't happen overnight - just look at the breakup of Czechoslovakia - although both had their separate currencies swiftly established it took 9 years to set up their independent central banks.

That's not an argument against independence but the reality that any move to independence is not instantaneous but a transitional process.

Some of the arguments put up are more to do with opponents of independence focusing on worst case scenarios than the realpolitik that would kick in if there was a Yes vote.
 

I don't disagree with your post.  However, the deficit would either have to be financed from day 1 or eradicated.  This can't be ignored and can't be wished away. 

The Czech breakup also isn't the best example of a managed process as both economies suffered a massive drop in GDP of 12 and 20% and the central bank was already well established.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[SweeperDee]

56% Yes.

https://news.stv.tv/scotland/support-for-scottish-independence-rises-to-56-after-supreme-court-ruling-stv-poll?fbclid=IwAR1ES_HTFDkcZNEmyRFZtqaSUB1aGzt1881IM94mGJrqw5meG0s3VySe6zQ

[SweeperDee]

Proud of Mhairi Black becoming deputy; she’s the future of the party.

[Brother Blades]

11 minutes ago, SweeperDee said:

56% Yes.

https://news.stv.tv/scotland/support-for-scottish-independence-rises-to-56-after-supreme-court-ruling-stv-poll?fbclid=IwAR1ES_HTFDkcZNEmyRFZtqaSUB1aGzt1881IM94mGJrqw5meG0s3VySe6zQ

 @Jedi

Larger sample, properly weighted, has SNP on 58 seats in the next UK general election, Labour with 1. 

I wouldn’t pretend that this would be the real result, however, surely you’ve got to realise the poll you posted yesterday is utter tripe? 

[williemillersmoustache]

I love the smell of a properly conducted and weighted poll in the afternoon.

[101]

[BFTD]

Dunno what you're all so happy about. THERE IS NO SUPPORT FOR ANOTHER INDEPENDENCE REFERENDUM IN SCOTLAND. When will you all get it through your thick skulls?!

Maybe if SpongePhil hits you with more quality misogynist memes it'll get the message across. Change your ways or Glen Minter will copypaste his pictures of nationalists that don't arouse him sexually!