When will indyref2 happen?

[renton]

8 hours ago, Donathan said:

The “de facto referendum” is a trap for Sturgeon IMO.

 

The WM government’s response is obvious:

 

If yes parties fail to get 50% + 1: Issue dead in the water for several decades. You’ve had your second referendum and you said no again.

 

If yes parties do get 50% + 1: Referendum what referendum? 
 

 

The absolute best the SG could get out of it (IMO) is that a “yes” vote in the GE *might* persuade a UKG to allow a section 30. But even that’s unlikely IMO 

Not sure it's much of a trap. Whether it's a s30 referendum of using  GE it doesn't exactly take a galaxy size brain to know we won't get a third shot at it. That's not exactly news.

 

[Donathan]

1 hour ago, renton said:

Not sure it's much of a trap. Whether it's a s30 referendum of using  GE it doesn't exactly take a galaxy size brain to know we won't get a third shot at it. That's not exactly news.

 

So what’s your suggestion when the Yes side DO get a majority in the GE and Westminster doesn’t recognise it? 

[DeeTillEhDeh]

Someone was at the meths last night.

Eyebleeding contributions from the Bucks Buffoon.

[renton]

Just now, Donathan said:

So what’s your suggestion when the Yes side DO get a majority in the GE and Westminster doesn’t recognise it? 

Well, since we can't apparently organise a referendum without the permission of a parliament who will not now ever grant one until shortly before the heat death of the Universe, and if WM won't recognise other expressions of a democratic will then the whole thing is pretty much fucked, innit.

[D Angelo Barksdale]

9 hours ago, The_Kincardine said:

Dafty.  We all know that 2014 was the gold standard.

In what way was the 2014 referendum 'gerrymandering' ?

8 hours ago, The_Kincardine said:

Devolution has been a blight on Scotland.

Fortunately, a view only held by a grevience fueled minority in Scotland. 

[btb]

IIRC the criteria for calling Indyref2 was YES consistently polling 55-60%. There was a short lived spike immediately after the Brexit referendum but for the past 4/5 years YES has generally been polling just under 50%.

It's important to see the referral to the UKSC for what it was, an attempt to embarrass the UK government and a ploy to galvanize support for Independence - a gamble but in the face of the "You had your chance, so just stay in your box" attitude of the Unionist parties there was little alternative.

So let's roll the dice...

[D Angelo Barksdale]

35 minutes ago, oaksoft said:

It only requires a few hundred hardcore nutters on either side.

You really believe we don't have that element in the country?

An element willing to organise and wage political violence similar to Northern Ireland ?

No. 

[btb]

4 hours ago, oaksoft said:

Do you think we're somehow uniquely immune to this sort of thing or are we a more moral nation in your eyes?

Amongst all the other countries in the world who were denied democracy we alone will simply meekly accept it?

You have more faith in humans than history suggests is deserving.

 

No he's using his knowledge of history - Ireland had a full scale rebellion in 1798 followed by a century or so of lower level insurgency before the 1916 rebellion, totally different to Scotland.

Not the first time your tendency to be a drama queen has won out.

Edited November 26, 2022 by btb

[Bad Wolf]

14 hours ago, Antlion said:

Worried the bold “Nippy” is stealing your thunder? Christ, you’re unable even to reign in your grievance, abide by the forum rules, and refrain from telling folk who aren’t even in favour of independence to “f**k off”. 

Be fair! He hasn't started a thread about "grey and green yins" for a few months. 

[Bad Wolf]

13 hours ago, Donathan said:

The “de facto referendum” is a trap for Sturgeon IMO.

 

The WM government’s response is obvious:

 

If yes parties fail to get 50% + 1: Issue dead in the water for several decades. You’ve had your second referendum and you said no again.

 

If yes parties do get 50% + 1: Referendum what referendum? 
 

 

The absolute best the SG could get out of it (IMO) is that a “yes” vote in the GE *might* persuade a UKG to allow a section 30. But even that’s unlikely IMO 

Everything that Westminster try is a trap, for the majority of Scottish people, not just Sturgeon. Making it all about her makes you look like a numptie, just as an FYI.

[Suspect Device]

2 hours ago, oaksoft said:

It only requires a few hundred hardcore nutters on either side.

You really believe we don't have that element in the country?

Is Adam Busby still alive?

[Bad Wolf]

12 hours ago, The_Kincardine said:

You completely misunderstand me.

The referendum announced in 2012 by Dim Dave Cameron was probably the most stupid act ever by a British politician and - by Christ - there have been a few.

What DDC did was legitimise the effete, the ignorant, the aggrieved, the stupid, the boors, the neds, the Shinners and the Anglophobes in Scotland.

Yet the combined lot of you still can't get over 50% of the popular vote.

You're a sectarian bigot who lives in Buckinghamshire, wherever that is. Your opinion counts for precisely f**k all.

[Miguel Sanchez]

Is oaksoft still doing his civil disobedience bit? So boring.

[Bad Wolf]

1 hour ago, oaksoft said:

Do you think we're somehow uniquely immune to this sort of thing or are we a more moral nation in your eyes?

Amongst all the other countries in the world who were denied democracy we alone will simply meekly accept it?

You have more faith in humans than history suggests is deserving.

 

I don't think outright violence is a likelihood. I do think that civil disobedience, perhaps in escalating levels as time passes, could occur. Apropos of nothing, Faslane is quite close to Scotland's major centres of population, and the roads are a lot better than they used to be.

[D Angelo Barksdale]

1 hour ago, oaksoft said:

Do you think we're somehow uniquely immune to this sort of thing or are we a more moral nation in your eyes?

Amongst all the other countries in the world who were denied democracy we alone will simply meekly accept it?

You have more faith in humans than history suggests is deserving.

The situation here just isn't analogous with these violent national struggles for liberation or anti imperial and anti colonial conflicts. Nor is it a particularly ideological dispute, there's no Revolutionary Workers movement trying to establish  socialist or communist control (unfortunately) or a right wing theocracy or military coup or junta.

There's a small number of people who are willing to go out out in the street and wave flags at each other and carry signs that say 'Rishi Sunak is a pure bawbag' and 'Wee Nippy must go'. There could well be some outbreaks of pavement dancing, but the middle managers of the Central Belt aren't about to turn their 4x4s into Technicals and start stocking pipe bombs quite yet.

[Johnny Martin]

On 25/11/2022 at 00:05, oaksoft said:

Neither Yes nor No has commanded 60% over a sustained period of time covering several years so having that as a barrier is clearly not on.

Having a result less than 60% for one side isn't ideal as No and Brexiteers are finding out but to set it as a hard barrier to even allow the question to be formally asked is not reasonable by any measure.

The only reasonable democratic barrier is the ballot box and Yes has a majority at Holyrood and Westminster amongst Scottish MPs.

It is also not reasonable to keep raising the bar.

The SNP were told to win a majority at Holyrood. They delivered.

Then they were told actually we need to see a majority at Westminster. They delivered.

Then they were told actually we need to see a majority for pro-Indy at Holyrood. They delivered again for the second time.

Then they were told nobody wants a referendum. So they stood for election after election on independence and won every time. 

That still wasn't enough. They've been asked to prove it yet again via another majority and to show polls consistently above 60%. No doubt if they manage to get another majority they'll be told people didn't vote them in for Independence reasons and that really it needs to be 67% for the polls - maybe one more year at that level.

All thew while, reasonable people who would vote No are now thinking "Hang on. This simply isn't British fairness" and start believing that maybe, just maybe Westminster are just being c***s for the sake of it. Either way, you might win the battle but end up losing the entire war.

What's it going to take here for democracy to be respected? Mass protests in the streets? Decades of violence? Do you want another Northern Ireland? Is that what it will take?

 

I don't see why it's not on.  A change as fundamental as breaking up the country deserves more than an opportunistic referendum held at a time that works best to get it just over the line, especially when it's a re-run.  There should be evidence that Scots actually want it long-term.

The SNP were never told majorities at Holyrood or within the Scottish MPs in Parliament would secure them IndyRef2.  Decisions on referenda hasve never been within the remit of the devolved assembly.

What's it going to take for democracy to be respected?  The SNP to stop talking about the issue, thus respecting the 2014 decision, accepting it is settled as they said they would, and letting everyone move on with their lives.  There's been constant chat about another referendum as soon as the last one was finished FFS.

Another Northern Ireland?  No thanks.  Although, it seems that they are largely moving forward, albeit with hiccups here and there, whereas Scotland is moving backwards.  Scottish politics is an utter embarrassment and I've never known it to be this polarised.  The constitution dominates EVERYTHING.

[Johnny Martin]

On 24/11/2022 at 21:52, Antlion said:

Where is this codified? It looks to me like the UK could simply say “60% for a couple of years is not enough”.

We have only ever had a “referenduma” on whether or not to be part of an EU member state. We have never voted on whether to be part of an aggressively anti-European non-member state. Don’t blame us for nullifying the 2014 vote - blame David Cameron, Boris Johnson, and the good voters of England and Wales.

It doesn't need to be codified; it's just my opinion.

If the government was to deny a referendum when it was obvious that a significant majority of Scots wanted independence for the long-term, then this would be morally wrong.

Even a Unionist like myself would take issue with that.

[Theroadlesstravelled]

Look at all these countries that didn’t shite it cause they got scared about losing their pensions.

[Antlion]

1 hour ago, Johnny Martin said:

It doesn't need to be codified; it's just my opinion.

If the government was to deny a referendum when it was obvious that a significant majority of Scots wanted independence for the long-term, then this would be morally wrong.

Even a Unionist like myself would take issue with that.

You’re not a unionist if you support the anti-union UK.

[git-intae-thum]

1 hour ago, Johnny Martin said:

It doesn't need to be codified; it's just my opinion.

If the government was to deny a referendum when it was obvious that a significant majority of Scots wanted independence for the long-term, then this would be morally wrong.

Even a Unionist like myself would take issue with that.

Lets put an end to this "am a unionist" nonsense. No such thing as a "union". Scotland ceased to exist in 1707 according to the UK supreme Court.