When will indyref2 happen?

[Cowden Cowboy]

Just now, Antlion said:

Who, then, are these “influential and sensible MPs from other parties” that Scotland should be schmoozing in the hope that they’ll allow us to get what we’ve democratically expressed a desire for?

Hey it’s not up to me to do your job for you - you want something you do the hard yards.  I’m not all fired up about this and I am happy to be both a Scot and British and European for that matter - without being nationalistic about it 

[Billy Jean King]

Don’t know - maybe Time,  clear evidence of hardcore strong majority support for it over time, persuasion of influential and sensible MPs from other parties that asking the public again is appropriate, an evaluation of the pros and cons for both parties which shows advantages, less strident anti-English doggedness and a willingness to compromise with others.  Just thinking aloud really I don’t have a manifesto.  

"clear evidence of hardcore strong majority support for it over time"

How on earth is that demonstrable without a vote, surely you don't suggest using the guestimate of opinion polling ???

[git-intae-thum]

3 minutes ago, Cowden Cowboy said:

Not a UK Nat but actually someone open to sensible persuasion.  Not convinced by Scot Nats - no time for Ross or Sunak.  Sarwar made no impression on me - don’t mind Starmer but maybe that’s because I am probably a left of centre liberal.  

once then that you too have finally been persuaded......how you going to express your democratic choice?

 

[Antlion]

6 minutes ago, Cowden Cowboy said:

Hey it’s not up to me to do your job for you - you want something you do the hard yards.  I’m not all fired up about this and I am happy to be both a Scot and British and European for that matter - without being nationalistic about it 

Aye, I didn’t think you had anyone in mind. I’m not interested in convincing random unidentified UK Nat MPs to allow Scotland a referendum; it was your idea, so I’m not sure why you’d think it was my job to identify these presumably mythical figures.

And my apologies - I forgot UK Nationalism was exceptional and an attachment to British identity shouldn’t even really be sullied with the term “nationalism”. But it’s worth reflecting on how it was anti-European UK Nationalism robbing us of our European citizenship that has fired up the Scottish/UKish debate.

Edited November 25, 2022 by Antlion

[Antlion]

1 minute ago, oaksoft said:

543 English MPs out of a total of 650 suggests that for all practical purposes it is an English Parliament.

When over 82% of all sitting MPs are from one country, the brutal reality is that whatever that one country wants, that one country gets.

That isn't democracy.

Even the EU is more democratic than that and we left that because of the lack of democracy.

The whole ongoing pantomime of the English Parliament shows what a bizarre fudge the formation of the UK was and is. 1707 dissolved Scottish sovereignty and the Scottish Parliament but made no move to create a British Parliament; instead it just invited a select number of Scots to sit in the English Parliament, which continued in its mouldering operations and cutesy customs.

Additionally, Scottish and English statehood were abolished, but Scotland was permitted to keep markers of nationhood (Church and Law), whilst England went on with its own as before. So in practice, England was able to outvote Scotland on domestic British matters, yet Scottish offices and Scottish secretaries were tasked with administering Scotland’s governance in certain areas. The disproportionate weight of England-based MPs kept England’s governance in their hands. So even the new GB government was pretty porous and messy.

So what did this actually leave us with from 1707 onwards? A state of GB ruled from an unbalanced but sovereign English Parliament with a British government riddled with exceptions. I suppose it could all work well enough (though it took a few decades to deliver Scotland anything much) as long as we could merrily rape and pillage the rest of the world. With that ability thankfully gone, and with devolution and Brexit exposing the faultlines, you have to wonder whether this fudge is fit for purpose in the 21st century. Brexit and the denial of Scotland’s ability to even question its own status - despite voting to do so - would suggest something’s gone wrong.

[Guest Jedi]

I think its fair for the next GE to be a binary choice for the Scottish electorate....do you want this to count as a say on Independence...fine, vote SNP or Green (though cant see the Greens polling much above 2% in a GE), or do you want to get rid of a Tory govt in London, and replace it with a Labour one.

In the middle you will have the Tories probably just shouting about 'stop Independence' again on their leaflets and debates, as they seem to like a single issue just as much.

Clear terms....50.1% for the SNP/Green combination and negotiations should happen, or an election of more Labour MPs which helps to bring about the end of a Tory govt (yes, I know, 'you can elect as many Lab MPs as you like in Scotland, it doesnt matter if England decides it wants the Tories again). Maybe so, but this time the Tories are genuinely unpopular in England as well.

[DeeTillEhDeh]

I think its fair for the next GE to be a binary choice for the Scottish electorate....do you want this to count as a say on Independence...fine, vote SNP or Green (though cant see the Greens polling much above 2% in a GE), or do you want to get rid of a Tory govt in London, and replace it with a Labour one.
In the middle you will have the Tories probably just shouting about 'stop Independence' again on their leaflets and debates, as they seem to like a single issue just as much.
Clear terms....50.1% for the SNP/Green combination and negotiations should happen, or an election of more Labour MPs which helps to bring about the end of a Tory govt (yes, I know, 'you can elect as many Lab MPs as you like in Scotland, it doesnt matter if England decides it wants the Tories again). Maybe so, but this time the Tories are genuinely unpopular in England as well.

I've said why it shouldn't be a GE - way too muddied on the Unionist side.

Needs to be a Scottish Parliament election.

[lichtgilphead]

58 minutes ago, Jedi said:

or do you want to get rid of a Tory govt in London, and replace it with a Labour one.

Would that be forever, or just for 15 years max?

Independence is forever, unless we choose to give it up.

Labour will only be in power until England swings back to the Tories. That might be as early as 2029 if the next 2 Westminster parliaments run full term (and that's assuming Labour can win in '24)

Look at the bigger picture, my friend.

[Guest Jedi]

5 minutes ago, lichtgilphead said:

Would that be forever, or just for 15 years max?

Independence is forever, unless we choose to give it up.

Labour will only be in power until England swings back to the Tories. That might be as early as 2029 if the next 2 Westminster parliaments run full term (and that's assuming Labour can win in '24)

Look at the bigger picture, my friend.

Reckon it will be at least 2 terms this time around....as I say, if the SNP at the same time get over the line in %, happy to recognise that as sufficient for negotiations to begin. If not, onto the Holyrood election, but this time with a Labour govt in London.

[jakedee]

Reckon it will be at least 2 terms this time around....as I say, if the SNP at the same time get over the line in %, happy to recognise that as sufficient for negotiations to begin. If not, onto the Holyrood election, but this time with a Labour govt in London.

Serious question.
Do you really believe that the Party who gerrymandered the original devolution referendum, would be more or less likely to "allow" a 2nd indyref?

[Guest Jedi]

18 minutes ago, jakedee said:

Serious question.
Do you really believe that the Party who gerrymandered the original devolution referendum, would be more or less likely to "allow" a 2nd indyref?

More 'likely' than the Tories? Yes. More likely than the Tories if opinion polling was consistently at 55-60%? Yes. And more likely than the Tories to negotiate if the SNP/Greens win over 50% of the next Holyrood vote?...Yes

[jakedee]

More 'likely' than the Tories? Yes. More likely than the Tories if opinion polling was consistently at 55-60%? Yes. And more likely than the Tories to negotiate if the SNP/Greens win over 50% of the next Holyrood vote?...Yes

We'll have to agree to disagree then.

[Guest Jedi]

2 minutes ago, jakedee said:

5 minutes ago, Jedi said:

More 'likely' than the Tories? Yes. More likely than the Tories if opinion polling was consistently at 55-60%? Yes. And more likely than the Tories to negotiate if the SNP/Greens win over 50% of the next Holyrood vote?...Yes

We'll have to agree to disagree then.

Time will tell. SNP supporters are confident of securing that 50% plus in 2 years, so we will know then.

[The_Kincardine]

4 hours ago, Cowden Cowboy said:

Nobody has denied democracy you just haven’t got what you want.  There is a democratic uk govt which already agreed to a referendum in 2014.  Thus the democratic route is to persuade it to agree once again.  The Supreme Court ruled it was a reserved matter which was already self evident.  

Just you f**k off with your assertion of reasonableness.

Despite nothing having changed, constitutionally, on Wednesday and despite Nippy being told by the Lord Advocate she was on to plums she achieved what she wanted:  Grievance Max.

And, by Christ, have her acolytes delivered!

[Antlion]

8 minutes ago, The_Kincardine said:

she achieved what she wanted:  Grievance Max.

 

Worried the bold “Nippy” is stealing your thunder? Christ, you’re unable even to reign in your grievance, abide by the forum rules, and refrain from telling folk who aren’t even in favour of independence to “f**k off”. 

[D Angelo Barksdale]

2 hours ago, oaksoft said:

As for where we go now? I fear that it will go in the same direction that every other country in history has gone when the democratic will of the people is denied. Anger and inevitably violence and it wouldn't need many to adopt that tactic for it to become a crisis overnight as Northern Ireland proved.

This seems pretty farfetched tbh. There's obviously an element of Ulsterisation in play here with the constitutional stasis, but the idea of violence on a scale beyond a few bams squaring up to each other in George Square seems ridiculous. 

 

[Antlion]

16 minutes ago, Stringer Bell said:

This seems pretty farfetched tbh. There's obviously an element of Ulsterisation in play here with the constitutional stasis, but the idea of violence on a scale beyond a few bams squaring up to each other in George Square seems ridiculous. 

 

You can guarantee it’s what the more extreme UK Nats are gunning for - and there are plenty of Tory and Labourite politicians just itching to set up soapboxes from which to bemoan the terrible evils of “the separatists bringing shame to Scotland’s streets”.

UK nationalism needs enemies, and its leaders need to paint independence supporters in as sinister and scary a light as possible in order to pose as the voice of reason. As I said, the game was given away by the vocal loyalists blowing their load early and screaming about the IRA every time they see a photo of NIPPY SWEETY KRANKY.

It also helps the UK leaders immensely if we’re arguing amongst ourselves rather than in conflict with them - and so they’ll drag it out in perpetuity. One solution is a clear majority for independence; the other is a clear majority for Brexit Britain. You don’t need to guess at why the UK is refusing to see either one reached; “divide and rule” doesn’t work if you allow the party you’re dividing and ruling to unite behind anything.

Edited November 25, 2022 by Antlion

[Inanimate Carbon Rod]

2 hours ago, DeeTillEhDeh said:

I've said why it shouldn't be a GE - way too muddied on the Unionist side.

Needs to be a Scottish Parliament election.

If you consider though, at a Scottish Parliament election its more things which impact us daily through whats reserved/devolved. Id be ok with voting snp in a general election on this basis, because in reality theres no actual point Scottish MP’s turning up in Westminster given our MPs are shouted down, our views arent considered and policy is decided for us etc. Given constitutional matters are ‘reserved’ its entirely the right election to do this with. 

[The_Kincardine]

1 hour ago, Antlion said:

abide by the forum rules, and refrain from telling folk who aren’t even in favour of independence to “f**k off”. 

 

1 hour ago, The_Kincardine said:

Just you f**k off with your assertion of reasonableness.

Even by your pathetically low standards that's a dreadful post, wee man.

[The_Kincardine]

2 hours ago, jakedee said:

Serious question.
Do you really believe that the Party who gerrymandered the original devolution referendum, would be more or less likely to "allow" a 2nd indyref?

Dafty.  We all know that 2014 was the gold standard.