When will indyref2 happen?

[D Angelo Barksdale]

I have my doubts that a defacto referendum in a Westminster election will work tbh. 

[lichtgilphead]

Talking about polls, I also note that Jedi hasn't reported tonights Channel 4 poll

https://scotgoespop.blogspot.com/2022/11/bombshell-channel-4-poll-suggests-court.html

Would you vote SNP at the next general election if a victory for them could lead to Scotland leaving the UK? (Find Out Now / Channel 4 News, 23rd November 2022)

Yes 50%
No 33%

Excluding Don't Knows and 'Prefer Not To Says', that works out as approximately Yes 60%, No 40%.

Would you vote SNP at the next general election if your vote would be used as a mandate to negotiate independence with the UK Government?

Yes 51%
No 33%

That works out as roughly Yes 61%, No 39% without Don't Knows and Won't Says.

These are obviously extraordinarily good numbers, which at the very least seem to point to some kind of outright majority for independence in the wake of the Supreme Court ruling.  It's particularly striking that respondents were not put off by the pejorative wording about "leaving the UK", which normally dramatically reduces support.  However, these numbers also raise question marks about how polling can be accurately conducted for a plebiscite election, because it's obviously pretty unlikely that a more conventional voting intention poll would show the SNP as high as 60% or 61%.  It looks like the hypothetical nature of the question, and the failure to name other parties as alternatives, may have produced a distorted outcome - but there'd be a different sort of problem if you just asked a conventional voting intention question, because that might underestimate the SNP vote due to respondents not taking into account the plebiscite element.  It's really not straightforward.

[GiGi]

1 hour ago, Jedi said:

The Tories undoubtedly will rescind workers rights, will quite probably try to sell off the NHS to US venture capitalists, inflation will remain high for some time, which leads to a stagnation in wages etc...all true. Whatever the Tories do about health however would pertain to England and Wales and not apply in Scotland.

In Scotland, with health, education, transport, taxation devolved, and all the public sector workers named above striking over pay and conditions, not UK wide, but IN Scotland, under a government with fully devolved powers in these areas, again, does the SNP have 'any' responsibility to address these issues here, in the meantime, or is the stock answer that it is 'only' under Independence that we could make decisions on health, education, transport and taxation, which would allow us to pay public sector workers a fair wage more in line with a Cost of Living crisis. 

I mean it's a reasonable question in that devolved sectors are the responsibility of the Scottish government, but without power to adequately borrow out of these many pay crises like most western governments I think it's fairly obvious. The UK borrows hundreds of billions and hands it to the companies suppressing wages. In Scotland there is fairly limited power and scope to fully combat that while providing the social uplifts we have compared to south of the border. AFAIK the borrowing budget is restricted to book-balancing and not economic growth.

Not a like for like comparison for me.

[welshbairn]

1 hour ago, Stringer Bell said:

I have my doubts that a defacto referendum in a Westminster election will work tbh. 

It's a big ask to get 50% plus one, but if it happens, alongside no overall majority in Westminster, and SNP MPs just refuse to vote on anything without a guarantee of a binding referendum from whichever party can deliver it, it's a feasible strategy.

Edited November 24, 2022 by welshbairn

[sparky88]

Pro-Union parties will attempt to delegitimise the strategy by talking about issues that aren't independence. This might be slightly inconvenient for the single issue vote.

[GAD]

19 minutes ago, sparky88 said:

Pro-Union parties will attempt to delegitimise the strategy by talking about issues that aren't independence. This might be slightly inconvenient for the single issue vote.

Yeah, but nobody will be interested in talking about these things, just like in the past few elections when both Labour and Tories only wanted to talk about independence. Instead they will both have to repeatedly defend the line that Scotland doesn't deserve democracy and that 40% is a mandate for them, but not for the SNP. 

[renton]

8 hours ago, Jedi said:

Last 5 I can see, IPSOS Moray, Panelbase, Panelbase, Savana, YouGov are 50, 46,47,43,45. IPSOS Moray was a 2000 sample and 50% based on the question 'Should Should be an Independent country'/

The 'average' figure for the last 12 months is 43/44% (that includes summer this year when Yes was at 38/39%-sample 1000)

That's with DKs included (where support for the Union is below 50%). Dks excluded is as I said.

[renton]

48 minutes ago, sparky88 said:

Pro-Union parties will attempt to delegitimise the strategy by talking about issues that aren't independence. This might be slightly inconvenient for the single issue vote.

Controlling the narrative is going to be important, certainly. If the SNP go in with a manifesto that is one page long and simply says "Should Scotand be an independent country: vote SNP" then it will be pretty hard to paint a vote for the SNP in terms of their policies on Tax I think.

[DeeTillEhDeh]

 
I see that Jedi is totally misrepresenting the latest Ipsos poll. He's got the question wrong and is reporting the result as if the "don't knows" and the "don't minds" would vote against leaving.
When the undecided are stripped out, Indy is 8 percentage points ahead.
A typical Labour ploy - who remembers 1979 when the dead were counted as voting "no"?
 

He's just a cut and paste SLab troll.

Best ignored.

[Billy Jean King]

Anyone else log in here this morning stunned and disappointed in equal measure to see Kincy hadn't signed in under his Kenneth persona screaming for UDI ???

[DeeTillEhDeh]

Controlling the narrative is going to be important, certainly. If the SNP go in with a manifesto that is one page long and simply says "Should Scotand be an independent country: vote SNP" then it will be pretty hard to paint a vote for the SNP in terms of their policies on Tax I think.

And which election.

I'm minded that it shouldn't be a UK election but a Scottish Parliament election - that would mean the FM resigning and no replacement being made within 28 days - under the terms of the Scotland Act, if the Parliament fails to nominate a first minister, within this time frame, it will be dissolved and a fresh election held.

[Billy Jean King]

And which election.

I'm minded that it shouldn't be a UK election but a Scottish Parliament election - that would mean the FM resigning and no replacement being made within 28 days - under the terms of the Scotland Act, if the Parliament fails to nominate a first minister, within this time frame, it will be dissolved and a fresh election held.

The whole de-facto referendum thing is in my mind not going to change anything but if the SNP are determined to go down that route then it 100% should be as part of a Scottish parliament election and not a general election. It smacks a bit of shitebaggery by NS.

[Inanimate Carbon Rod]

9 hours ago, Jedi said:

The Tories undoubtedly will rescind workers rights, will quite probably try to sell off the NHS to US venture capitalists, inflation will remain high for some time, which leads to a stagnation in wages etc...all true. Whatever the Tories do about health however would pertain to England and Wales and not apply in Scotland.

In Scotland, with health, education, transport, taxation devolved, and all the public sector workers named above striking over pay and conditions, not UK wide, but IN Scotland, under a government with fully devolved powers in these areas, again, does the SNP have 'any' responsibility to address these issues here, in the meantime, or is the stock answer that it is 'only' under Independence that we could make decisions on health, education, transport and taxation, which would allow us to pay public sector workers a fair wage more in line with a Cost of Living crisis. 

In terms of the NHS although i dont think the SNP are doing a good job, do you honestly think that if the English nhs was to be privatised that we’d still receive the same funding as we do now? It would be cut to be the equivalent of English public spending. You know this. 
Your posturing on this is disingenuous to say the least, were you one of the labour activists chapping peoples doors telling them they’d have to vote no or they’d be deported or their pensions would stop?

[sergie's no1 fan]

Weird seeing Unionists celebrating the face they have been denied the right to vote in favour of the Union in a fair and legal referendum.

Now they don't have a leg to stand on if Nicola finds a different loophole for independence. 

 

[Antlion]

9 minutes ago, sergie's no1 fan said:

Weird seeing Unionists celebrating the face they have been denied the right to vote in favour of the Union in a fair and legal referendum.

Now they don't have a leg to stand on if Nicola finds a different loophole for independence. 

 

I suspect UK Nats just see any denial of Scottish democratic rights a win for the UK. It’s a “them and us” attitude which only highlights the divisive nature of UK Nationalism: it endures by dividing (and ruling) the Scots into staunch UK loyalists and wicked jock separatists. The former will welcome anything - even things that damage their own rights - as long as it’s framed as being a win against the latter.

[Dan Steele]

16 minutes ago, sergie's no1 fan said:

Weird seeing Unionists celebrating the face they have been denied the right to vote in favour of the Union in a fair and legal referendum.

Now they don't have a leg to stand on if Nicola finds a different loophole for independence. 

 

Imagine being so worried about losing that they willingly cheer on the denial of democracy and in the process cheerlead the UK as the Tories take it even further to the right. 

[GAD]

1 hour ago, GAD said:

Yeah, but nobody will be interested in talking about these things, just like in the past few elections when both Labour and Tories only wanted to talk about independence. Instead they will both have to repeatedly defend the line that Scotland doesn't deserve democracy and that 40% is a mandate for them, but not for the SNP. 

Didn't need to wait long as Douglas Ross has an absolute car crash on radio Scotland this morning flapping hard trying to defend these positions whilst also trying not to talk about them. 

[williemillersmoustache]

5 minutes ago, Antlion said:

I suspect UK Nats just see any denial of Scottish democratic rights a win for the UK. It’s a “them and us” attitude which only highlights the divisive nature of UK Nationalism: it endures by dividing (and ruling) the Scots into staunch UK loyalists and wicked jock separatists. The former will welcome anything - even things that damage their own rights - as long as it’s framed as being a win against the latter.

It's the one thing I'll never get my head around. Unionists should want there to be a clear, accessible and achievable route for independence but, it's clear that's the very last thing they seem to want. 

Some kind of democratic peril or leverage for the devolved nations would force the UK government to give more than lip service to their electorates and create a stronger, better, more functional UK. They shouldn't be scared of making the argument or worry about the union being actually, functionally dependent on consent. It's so self defeating and short-termist. 

It's almost as if they know their arguments just don't stack up and they have absolutely zero desire to govern in our interest. 

[Blootoon87]

Didn't need to wait long as Douglas Ross has an absolute car crash on radio Scotland this morning flapping hard trying to defend these positions whilst also trying not to talk about them. 

Link please

[Rugster]

40 minutes ago, GAD said:

Didn't need to wait long as Douglas Ross has an absolute car crash on radio Scotland this morning flapping hard trying to defend these positions whilst also trying not to talk about them. 

I thought Laura Maxwell was very good, she repeatedly asked him the simple, same question, and he utterly embarrassed himself with his stammering and non answer. He's an utter buffoon.