When will indyref2 happen?

[KirkieRR]

I accept that there is a case for remaining in the UK. I happen to disagree with it, but that's football.

 

However, only a maddie with utter contempt for reality would want the UK or Scotland to be outside the EU.

 

Just saying.

[TapothehullDee]

43 minutes ago, Jeff Venom said:

And why was that, specifically? 

It is because the EU hates democracy, overturns referenda and makes countries vote again. Its the most undemocratic cleak on the planet. 

[Antlion]

8 minutes ago, TapothehullDee said:

It is because the EU hates democracy, overturns referenda and makes countries vote again. Its the most undemocratic cleak on the planet. 

The UK would like a word. So would the dictionary.

[renton]

51 minutes ago, Jedi said:

Even in the SNP's best ever year of 2015, they didn't quite reach 50% of the vote, and that was on the back of a deeply unpopular Labour Party (worked with the Tories etc). There was huge momentum behind the SNP then, with their massive upsurge in membership,

Circumstances are different now. They have 45% of the vote pretty much baked in, whatever they do. However, to push that over the 50% line in the next GE looks very unlikely. 

I would imagine that Sturgeon's tactic in the leaders debates will be to try to bounce Starmer into agreeing to work with the SNP to lock the Tories out. He will hold the line that he won't work with the SNP though. Also the Tories will hammer away at the line that voting Labour lets NS dictate the next UK govt. However, that was a one trick pony back in 2015 when the Tories weren't as unpopular as they are now, so don't see that sticking either.

To enter the GE on a single ticket, I think, will therefore backfire. 40-45% will get them the most seats in Scotland, but what then? Especially with a more likely Lab majority govt.

Onto the next Holyrood election, and it all begins again.....vote for us, and we will pass a bill for a Referendum.....but a UK govt says no...and it starts again.....does it go back to the Supreme Court for another go? 

Any kind of vote for Independence would require 50% or better, so, if the SNP can convince the electorate to treat the GE on those merits it's as likely as anything else.

I dont think Sturgeon will try "bouncing" Starmer on anything. I also think it'd be a mistake for her to take on a platform like a leader's debate that inevitably sprawls across different subjects beyond the Scottish constitution as that will dilute any attempt to get the electorate to treat the GE as the de facto referendum she wants. 

[git-intae-thum]

54 minutes ago, Jedi said:

Even in the SNP's best ever year of 2015, they didn't quite reach 50% of the vote, and that was on the back of a deeply unpopular Labour Party (worked with the Tories etc). There was huge momentum behind the SNP then, with their massive upsurge in membership,

Circumstances are different now. They have 45% of the vote pretty much baked in, whatever they do. However, to push that over the 50% line in the next GE looks very unlikely. 

I would imagine that Sturgeon's tactic in the leaders debates will be to try to bounce Starmer into agreeing to work with the SNP to lock the Tories out. He will hold the line that he won't work with the SNP though. Also the Tories will hammer away at the line that voting Labour lets NS dictate the next UK govt. However, that was a one trick pony back in 2015 when the Tories weren't as unpopular as they are now, so don't see that sticking either.

To enter the GE on a single ticket, I think, will therefore backfire. 40-45% will get them the most seats in Scotland, but what then? Especially with a more likely Lab majority govt.

Onto the next Holyrood election, and it all begins again.....vote for us, and we will pass a bill for a Referendum.....but a UK govt says no...and it starts again.....does it go back to the Supreme Court for another go? 

Pretty accurate. But what do you suggest Scotlands independence majority do to ensure their democratic voice is heard?

[renton]

9 minutes ago, git-intae-thum said:

Pretty accurate. But what do you suggest Scotlands independence majority do to ensure their democratic voice is heard?

Vote Labour for an upper house of the nations and regions, obviously.

[Jeff Venom]

22 minutes ago, TapothehullDee said:

It is because the EU hates democracy, overturns referenda and makes countries vote again. Its the most undemocratic cleak on the planet. 

Taking this at face value, when did the EU deny the UK a referendum on it's membership, exactly? 

[Guest Jedi]

It may be that one of the routes previously suggested by NS and not that long ago either is the most realistic one...where opinion polls over a consistent period show 55-60% support for Independence (and they never yet have), then a UK govt of any persuasion would be put in a position where they had to say go on then have a Ref...Given that the same applies in Northern Ireland under the term of the GF agreement it would be very difficult for any govt to argue that doesn't also apply to Scotland (even without a written agreement on such)

Edited November 23, 2022 by Jedi

[Donathan]

2 hours ago, git-intae-thum said:

3. UK nationalists will now have to define an alternative democratic route for the people of Scotland to express their will.

The democratic route is there. The route is for the Westminster Parliament to vote in favour of independence. Scottish independence is a UK wide decision so it’s expected that the entire House of Commons would get a say in it.

 

AFAIK, none of the MPs elected in 2019 other than those standing for the SNP (<10% of the overall HoC) support Scottish independence so it really shouldn’t be surprising to see the UK government rejecting the idea. 

[git-intae-thum]

9 minutes ago, Donathan said:

The democratic route is there. The route is for the Westminster Parliament to vote in favour of independence. Scottish independence is a UK wide decision so it’s expected that the entire House of Commons would get a say in it.

 

AFAIK, none of the MPs elected in 2019 other than those standing for the SNP (<10% of the overall HoC) support Scottish independence so it really shouldn’t be surprising to see the UK government rejecting the idea. 

^^^

Point and laugh

[williemillersmoustache]

It's an interesting thought experiment though.  How do we make the English or rUK electorate want for us to f**k off. 

I have some ideas.......

Edited November 23, 2022 by williemillersmoustache

[Donathan]

13 minutes ago, git-intae-thum said:

^^^

Point and laugh

You realise that is literally how the law works?

 

The only body with the legal right to declare Scotland independent is the UK Parliament. 

[Inanimate Carbon Rod]

3 hours ago, Johnny Martin said:

Great result from the Supreme Court.

Two important things have now been established beyond doubt:

1- Scotland is not a colony with the right to self-determination.

2- A Scottish election cannot deliver a mandate for an independence referendum.

Basically Scotland is to the UK what Puerto Rico is to the USA, no influence over the government, batted away when it wants to make constitutional changes, population treated like shit and kept about for strategic advantage. 

Edited November 23, 2022 by Inanimate Carbon Rod

[Billy Jean King]

You realise that is literally how the law works?
 
The only body with the legal right to declare Scotland independent is the UK Parliament. 

Eh ? No politicians will be "declaring" Scotland independent, be that MP or MSP. You clearly have zero grasp on what today's ruling was all about.

[GAD]

3 hours ago, Jedi said:

Even in the SNP's best ever year of 2015, they didn't quite reach 50% of the vote, and that was on the back of a deeply unpopular Labour Party (worked with the Tories etc). There was huge momentum behind the SNP then, with their massive upsurge in membership,

Circumstances are different now. They have 45% of the vote pretty much baked in, whatever they do. However, to push that over the 50% line in the next GE looks very unlikely. 

I would imagine that Sturgeon's tactic in the leaders debates will be to try to bounce Starmer into agreeing to work with the SNP to lock the Tories out. He will hold the line that he won't work with the SNP though. Also the Tories will hammer away at the line that voting Labour lets NS dictate the next UK govt. However, that was a one trick pony back in 2015 when the Tories weren't as unpopular as they are now, so don't see that sticking either.

To enter the GE on a single ticket, I think, will therefore backfire. 40-45% will get them the most seats in Scotland, but what then? Especially with a more likely Lab majority govt.

Onto the next Holyrood election, and it all begins again.....vote for us, and we will pass a bill for a Referendum.....but a UK govt says no...and it starts again.....does it go back to the Supreme Court for another go? 

Labour and the Tories being forced time and again to justify why 40% of the vote is a mandate for them but no possible percentage of the vote is a mandate for the SNP is an absolute fucking nightmare for these guys. Doing it during an election campaign is even worse as the entire agenda in Scotland will be driven by the SNP, nobody will be talking about anything other than independence and the democratic deficit. Labour in particular will be forced to repeatedly defend the Tory line that democracy only exists for England and not for the rest of the UK. They can't avoid it. Hard to complain about being the red Tories when you are quite literally agreeing with them on the only issue anyone in Scotland will be discussing.

Edited November 23, 2022 by GAD

[sparky88]

48 minutes ago, Jedi said:

It may be that one of the routes previously suggested by NS and not that long ago either is the most realistic one...where opinion polls over a consistent period show 55-60% support for Independence (and they never yet have), then a UK govt of any persuasion would be put in a position where they had to say go on then have a Ref...Given that the same applies in Northern Ireland under the term of the GF agreement it would be very difficult for any govt to argue that doesn't also apply to Scotland (even without a written agreement on such)

This in fact is the only route to independence. SNP trying to cut corners manufacturing grievance when they start with only 45% Yes is absolutely no use.

Win the economic argument on independence and independence happens. I personally think they can, but it's very difficult. 

[git-intae-thum]

9 minutes ago, Donathan said:

You realise that is literally how the law works?

 

The only body with the legal right to declare Scotland independent is the UK Parliament. 

Keep digging

 

[Jeff Venom]

If/when England wants to go it alone and independence is a UK matter, what happens when the majority of voters in England voters want to go it alone? 

Edited November 23, 2022 by Jeff Venom

[williemillersmoustache]

1 minute ago, Jeff Venom said:

If/when England wants to go it alone and independence is a UK matter, what happens when the majority of English voters want to go it alone? 

I very much look forward to Angus Robertson or similar sagely stroking his facial and saying "well of course there needs to be a consensus on these things and while I don't deny them the right to make this choice, it needs to be at the right time. Oh I wouldn't like to comment on the specific conditions that would make it the right time, you'd just now, and it isn't now" beard/moustache stroking continues. 

[git-intae-thum]

3 minutes ago, sparky88 said:

This in fact is the only route to independence. SNP trying to cut corners manufacturing grievance when they start with only 45% Yes is absolutely no use.

Win the economic argument on independence and independence happens. I personally think they can, but it's very difficult. 

Hmmmm......so what if we are stuck on a 50 to 55 percent pro independence majority in perpetuity.

Is it justified to continue to deny that majority its democratic right?