When will indyref2 happen?

[G51]

1 minute ago, 101 said:

I think I'm right in saying that the Lib Dems at that election were still in favour of a second Brexit referendum, so people who vote for the best chance to rejoin the EU might flip. I also know Labour voters who support independence so I get that it might still be very close but having it explicitly as an indication of the countries position then you might see that move. Similarly there are probably SNP folk who would vote no albeit a small %

Aye, but that's kind of my point. It's pretty messy, and short of the SNP breaking records it's going to be difficult to make an irrefutable argument for a referendum.

It's also very easy to see a timeline where the Supreme Court throws out the referendum and the next GE isn't until well after 19th October 2023, at which point the whole thing starts to lose momentum.

I dunno. No one knows how it'll all play out of course, but my initial reaction is that there are many more ways to lose this than to win it.

[Bairnardo]

It will be really interesting to see how UK Gov play this. Denial first up obviously, but the govt won't go down the "lovebomb" please stay approach. Johnson is too much of a narcissist for that. It will also be interesting to see how English public opinion goes because we know he checks what way the wind is blowing. 

Johnson, his corral of bent thieving c***s and the scum who vote for them might end up our best weapon here. 

[The_Kincardine]

To give her her due that was a decent speech from Nippy.  She really does rehash the same old tropes, lies and half-truths exceptionally well.  What a pity she's up against Sarwar, Ross and Cole-Hamilton whose response was lamentably weak.  Nationalism is a suppurating pustule on the face of Scotland based on the nasty politics of identity and grievance and they need to address that issue rather than the limp response of 'wait until we're crisis-free'.

The bigger problem from today is that we're really not any further forward.  OK Nippy will 1. Ask for a S30 order then 2. Ask the SC if she can introduce an independence bill on the back of an advisory opinion poll.  Probably no to both.  So she'll then fight the next GE on a single issue.  Assuming she gets a result that shows a 'win' (however that is decided) for the Partitionists that will then take us back to the need for a S30 order.  So, really, it's they same old pish that is crippling Scotland going on and on.

Of course, the diseased boil of nationalism does need to be lanced.  Constantly saying 'no' to single-issue Anglophobes won't make the problem go away so Britain's government needs to do some combination of the following:

1. Break up Holyrood.  It's clearly not working as intended.  Pretty much everything in Scotland is worse than 15 years ago since the SNP have a single focus on Partition.  Furthermore, much of Scotland away from the central belt is as alienated from HR as the Partitionists are from WM.  We need a fresh approach to regional administration across the  nation.

2. Consider a whole-nation debate on Partition asking, something like "Should the 4 regions of Britain have the power to partition the country?"  If there's a yes to that then give Scotland a vote and make the outcome legally binding.

3. Grant a S30 order but recognise that Scotland isn't a social or political homogeneity.  Large parts of the country don't want to be held to ransom by boors, neds and Shinners in their squalid Yes Favelas.  Therefore, any future referendum should have options for the decent parts of Scotland to remain with the rest of us either as contiguous areas or as Crown Dependencies.  This is an honest approach and provides a real solution to a problem that Partitionists ignore:  Scexit will cause more difficulties than it solves.  This would give an option for some people in Scotland to escape from a Partitionist dystopia.

So lots of cogently-presented bluster from Nippy as you'd expect.  But it really didn't address the issue adequately.

[Clown Job]

[Clown Job]

20 minutes ago, Caledonian1 said:

Can George Galloway please lead the NO campaign this time?

Who this guy?

 

[BigDoddyKane]

1 minute ago, G51 said:

Aye, but that's kind of my point. It's pretty messy, and short of the SNP breaking records it's going to be difficult to make an irrefutable argument for a referendum.

It's also very easy to see a timeline where the Supreme Court throws out the referendum and the next GE isn't until well after 19th October 2023, at which point the whole thing starts to lose momentum.

I dunno. No one knows how it'll all play out of course, but my initial reaction is that there are many more ways to lose this than to win it.

That is a risk of this, that it drags on for a few years with no change, though I doubt that will be the case

[G51]

2 minutes ago, Clown Job said:

Bless this man, for he is the Michael Seafarer of Pie and Bovril

[Clown Job]

4 minutes ago, Bairnardo said:

It will be really interesting to see how UK Gov play this. Denial first up obviously, but the govt won't go down the "lovebomb" please stay approach. Johnson is too much of a narcissist for that. It will also be interesting to see how English public opinion goes because we know he checks what way the wind is blowing. 

Johnson, his corral of bent thieving c***s and the scum who vote for them might end up our best weapon here. 

I always believed at some point in the future the UK Government would try and make it illegal for any nation to leave the UK, and since no majority of Scots/Welsh or NI can ever get into power it would never be overturned 

Similar to what they have in the US

[williemillersmoustache]

"YES FAVELAS 4 YES"

[Dan Steele]

2 minutes ago, Bairnardo said:

 but the govt won't go down the "lovebomb" please stay approach

It'll certainly be interesting to see how they approach things this time. Agree they won't go down that line again but they'll have to engage with the question. I'm really struggling to see what arguments will be used. Doubt if it'll be " aye, alright, on you go". I'm really looking forward to seeing who they put on the media to argue against indy, though.

[Zern]

I wonder if Johnson is tempted to grant a section 30 simply as a massive middle finger to Douglas Ross the pretendy leader of  the Scottish Tories.

[The DA]

15 minutes ago, G51 said:

Right. But taking the 2019 election as an example:

SNP + Green: 46% (Greens contributed 1%).

Tory, Labour and Lib Dem: 53%

The high water mark for the SNP in any Westminster election is 49.97%, which they got in 2015. So lets say they hit that again, and do so by taking 5% out of the Tories. You're talking about 53/54 seats out of 59. Is it enough? It's not as many seats as they got in 2015, for example.

The likely ceiling for the SNP/Greens in terms of vote share is probably 51%. It would require the SNP matching their previous record highs. And you could reasonably point at the Greens and say "People voted for them for other reasons, not just independence".

I don't know what vote share or seat numbers would be enough, and I'm not sure anyone knows the answer to it. The only thing that seems certain is that getting to the number that forces the UK Government to negotiate would seem to be very difficult.

There must be a significant number of Labour and Lib Dem voters who are also pro-Independence.  

[101]

4 minutes ago, Left Back said:

While you're correct that UK pensioners in Mongolia can claim the UK state pension it will be a fixed amount.  It will never be increased as Mongolia doesn't have a reciprocal arrangement with the UK in that regard so it's not as straightforward as you make out.

How pensions would work is therefore a valid question to be asking as UK gov surely won't be paying for pensions in an independent Scotland.  It's not like pensions are a big fund we've all paid into that is ring-fenced therefore we'd be entitled to a slice of the pie if we go independent.  The UK state pension is unfunded and paid for at the time out of general taxation.

I'm sure there was a campaign by UK citizens in Canada to change it and May's government was looking at it.

A ring fenced pot would be something I'd like to see Scotland do in Indy.

2 minutes ago, G51 said:

Aye, but that's kind of my point. It's pretty messy, and short of the SNP breaking records it's going to be difficult to make an irrefutable argument for a referendum.

It's also very easy to see a timeline where the Supreme Court throws out the referendum and the next GE isn't until well after 19th October 2023, at which point the whole thing starts to lose momentum.

I dunno. No one knows how it'll all play out of course, but my initial reaction is that there are many more ways to lose this than to win it.

Yes, it's certainly not the best approach and like you say it will be spun any which way, especially with the boundary changes coming into force by the next election. It's also hard to predict what a hard no from the UKG would provoke in terms of a response from the soft No voters or undecideds.

2 minutes ago, Bairnardo said:

It will be really interesting to see how UK Gov play this. Denial first up obviously, but the govt won't go down the "lovebomb" please stay approach. Johnson is too much of a narcissist for that. It will also be interesting to see how English public opinion goes because we know he checks what way the wind is blowing. 

Johnson, his corral of bent thieving c***s and the scum who vote for them might end up our best weapon here. 

Can't see the point in love bombing us, they have had since 2014 to deliver either financially or politically. I'm not entirely sure of any big infrastructure projects that the UK government have funded, especially not the HS2 upgrades have been patched and they have taken us out the EU regional funding schemes so in those terms they have probably taken us backwards since 2014. Further, anyone promising Devo max or increased devolution should be laughed off the stage, it was promised in 2014 and hasn't been talked about since.

[betting competition]

43 minutes ago, BigDoddyKane said:

whens next general election? 

The maximum term of a Parliament is five years from the day on which it first met. The current Parliament first met on Tuesday 17 December 2019 and will automatically dissolve on Tuesday 17 December 2024, unless it has been dissolved sooner by the Queen.  Polling Day would be expected to take place 25 days later.

[G51]

2 minutes ago, BigDoddyKane said:

That is a risk of this, that it drags on for a few years with no change, though I doubt that will be the case

The Fixed Term Parliaments Act has been repealed. The Tories no longer need to hold an election by December 2024.

Equally, they could chuck Johnson and hold one very quickly, before Yes has even had the chance to make it's case.

I dunno. Like I said, a lot of ways this could play out.

[G51]

1 minute ago, The DA said:

There must be a significant number of Labour and Lib Dem voters who are also pro-Independence.  

Quite possible. But trying to decipher how many and using it as justification for a referendum is... challenging. Particularly if they have the option to vote for a single-issue party on this and choose not to do so.

[Dawson Park Boy]

17 minutes ago, Left Back said:

While you're correct that UK pensioners in Mongolia can claim the UK state pension it will be a fixed amount.  It will never be increased as Mongolia doesn't have a reciprocal arrangement with the UK in that regard so it's not as straightforward as you make out.

How pensions would work is therefore a valid question to be asking as UK gov surely won't be paying for pensions in an independent Scotland.  It's not like pensions are a big fund we've all paid into that is ring-fenced therefore we'd be entitled to a slice of the pie if we go independent.  The UK state pension is unfunded and paid for at the time out of general taxation.

This has been covered so many times.

Scottish citizens will receive what they are/were due under the UK system but it will be taxpayers in the new iScotland who will pay the bill. There is NO fund.

Edited June 28, 2022 by Dawson Park Boy
Spelling

[The DA]

6 minutes ago, The_Kincardine said:

To give her her due that was a decent speech from Nippy.  She really does rehash the same old tropes, lies and half-truths exceptionally well.  What a pity she's up against Sarwar, Ross and Cole-Hamilton whose response was lamentably weak.  Nationalism is a suppurating pustule on the face of Scotland based on the nasty politics of identity and grievance and they need to address that issue rather than the limp response of 'wait until we're crisis-free'.

The bigger problem from today is that we're really not any further forward.  OK Nippy will 1. Ask for a S30 order then 2. Ask the SC if she can introduce an independence bill on the back of an advisory opinion poll.  Probably no to both.  So she'll then fight the next GE on a single issue.  Assuming she gets a result that shows a 'win' (however that is decided) for the Partitionists that will then take us back to the need for a S30 order.  So, really, it's they same old pish that is crippling Scotland going on and on.

Of course, the diseased boil of nationalism does need to be lanced.  Constantly saying 'no' to single-issue Anglophobes won't make the problem go away so Britain's government needs to do some combination of the following:

1. Break up Holyrood.  It's clearly not working as intended.  Pretty much everything in Scotland is worse than 15 years ago since the SNP have a single focus on Partition.  Furthermore, much of Scotland away from the central belt is as alienated from HR as the Partitionists are from WM.  We need a fresh approach to regional administration across the  nation.

2. Consider a whole-nation debate on Partition asking, something like "Should the 4 regions of Britain have the power to partition the country?"  If there's a yes to that then give Scotland a vote and make the outcome legally binding.

3. Grant a S30 order but recognise that Scotland isn't a social or political homogeneity.  Large parts of the country don't want to be held to ransom by boors, neds and Shinners in their squalid Yes Favelas.  Therefore, any future referendum should have options for the decent parts of Scotland to remain with the rest of us either as contiguous areas or as Crown Dependencies.  This is an honest approach and provides a real solution to a problem that Partitionists ignore:  Scexit will cause more difficulties than it solves.  This would give an option for some people in Scotland to escape from a Partitionist dystopia.

So lots of cogently-presented bluster from Nippy as you'd expect.  But it really didn't address the issue adequately.

You're making the mistake of conflating SNP policies and Independence.  Post-independence, we can whatever colour of politics we vote for.  If people still vote SNP in 2024/5 then you can be sure that's the will of the people.

[Dan Steele]

3 minutes ago, The Skelpit Lug said:

 I'm really struggling to see what arguments will be used.

Oh, I see the answer's already in

7 minutes ago, The_Kincardine said:

 Nationalism is a suppurating pustule on the face of Scotland based on the nasty politics of identity and grievance and they need to address that issue rather than the limp response of 'wait until we're crisis-free'.

Of course, the diseased boil of nationalism does need to be lanced.     

 

[craigkillie]

8 minutes ago, G51 said:

The Fixed Term Parliaments Act has been repealed. The Tories no longer need to hold an election by December 2024.

Equally, they could chuck Johnson and hold one very quickly, before Yes has even had the chance to make it's case.

I dunno. Like I said, a lot of ways this could play out.

The Fixed Term Parliaments act prevented a party from holding an early General Election. There is still a requirement to dissolve parliament within 5 years of the previous one starting, and to subsequently hold an election within 25 working days.

Edited June 28, 2022 by craigkillie