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When will indyref2 happen?


Colkitto

Indyref2  

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If the SNP win enough seats in a future election then the UK government almost certainly has to negotiate a referendum with them. No idea what "enough seats" is right enough, but if the SNP went (for example) 57/59 in a Westminster election while explicitly campaigning on a single issue it would be very hard to argue that Scotland doesn't want a referendum.

It's risky though. Because if the SNP fall short of that, then Sturgeon has to go and you're left with some absolute melts leading Yes Scotland, most of whom are so incompetent it probably buries the issue for years.

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13 minutes ago, Albus Bulbasaur said:

As you're undoubtedly aware I'm talking from a Remain perspective so I can't see that strategy having any impact, think it's pretty much a nice way to make it seem like there's a plan after the SC loss and to temper expectations. 

Can you suggest any other way that is better than the plan announced today?

I understand you don’t want a referendum, but given the options, a pro Independence Party only have limited choices. 

illegal referendum 

UDI

or what has sensibly been proposed by Sturgeon today. 
 

Had she gone for anything else, there’d be an outcry. 

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3 minutes ago, G51 said:

If the SNP win enough seats in a future election then the UK government almost certainly has to negotiate a referendum with them. No idea what "enough seats" is right enough, but if the SNP went (for example) 57/59 in a Westminster election while explicitly campaigning on a single issue it would be very hard to argue that Scotland doesn't want a referendum.

It's risky though. Because if the SNP fall short of that, then Sturgeon has to go and you're left with some absolute melts leading Yes Scotland, most of whom are so incompetent it probably buries the issue for years.

I took the UK GE as an indication ref to mean that if the SNP + Green Votes  is more than Tory, Labour and Lib Dems then it's a yes vote rather than the SNP winning the majority of seats.

Edited by 101
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It's risky though. Because if the SNP fall short of that, then Sturgeon has to go and you're left with some absolute melts leading Yes Scotland, most of whom are so incompetent it probably buries the issue for years.


This is a good point. Sturgeon will either have made Scotland independent or will be working for the UN by Christmas 2024 (the latest a General Election can be), leaving someone else in charge of the SG. Angus Robertson? Kate Forbes? For true laughs, Humza or Swinney?
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1 minute ago, 101 said:

I took the UK GE as an indication ref to mean that if the SNP + Green Votes  is more than Tory, Labour and Lib Dems then it's a yes vote rather than the SNP winning the majority of seats.

It was explicitly a mandate for Independence and not for a referendum. And why in the name of f**k would that require 96% of the seats?

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Just now, Paco said:

 


This is a good point. Sturgeon will either have made Scotland independent or will be working for the UN by Christmas 2024 (the latest a General Election can be), leaving someone else in charge of the SG. Angus Robertson? Kate Forbes? For true laughs, Humza or Swinney?

 

Up until June I'd have voted Steve Clarke.

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Just now, 101 said:

I took the UK GE and an indication to mean that if the SNP + Green Votes  is more than Tory, Labour and Lib Dems then it's a yes vote rather than the SNP winning the majority of seats.

Are you talking about popular vote?  What happens if say the SNP/Greens win the popular vote but the other alliance wins most seats?

The GE pledge is currently open to all kinds of interpretation and surely needs clarification on what was actually meant.  Even then there will be all kinds of arguments if it goes down that route.

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2 minutes ago, Brother Blades said:

Can you suggest any other way that is better than the plan announced today?

I understand you don’t want a referendum, but given the options, a pro Independence Party only have limited choices. 

illegal referendum 

UDI

or what has sensibly been proposed by Sturgeon today. 
 

Had she gone for anything else, there’d be an outcry. 

I think if the SNP had a better record in government they'd build support and should focus on winning the arguments they lost in 2014. 

Basically their only viable option is a slow burn fact based approach rather than some emotional blame game approach. 

Proposing how to have a referendum should come after they're comfortably winning the Indy argument whereas right now they're hiding the detail in a Brexity way. 

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2 minutes ago, Left Back said:

Are you talking about popular vote?  What happens if say the SNP/Greens win the popular vote but the other alliance wins most seats?

The GE pledge is currently open to all kinds of interpretation and surely needs clarification on what was actually meant.  Even then there will be all kinds of arguments if it goes down that route.

Yeh it needs clarification if we have to go down that route, which really wouldn't be great for the UK.

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1 minute ago, Clown Job said:

Something… something NATO and Spain 

 

Just now, KingRocketman II said:

"back of the queue"....

'Putin will invade'

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