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When will indyref2 happen?


Colkitto

Indyref2  

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1 minute ago, Abdul_Latif said:

After how long and how many f**k ups though?

The SNP will hold power for while in an Indy Scotland, that I can live with.

What I don’t like is them underhandedly hoovering up all the votes in a GE and producing little with it, other than monopolising Scottish politics.

In a general election, it matters not a jot if they win all the seats, they will still be a minority in Westminster. Your argument would be against them using the Scottish parliamentary elections as a de facto referendum and thereby commanding more power.

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Just now, Albus Bulbasaur said:

But they maintain their position that they believe they have a mandate anyway, winning seats in a GE wouldn't give them a section 30 out of nowhere, it'd be the exact same mandate they have now. 

It would be a mark of consistency in the level of support for another indyref though and add pressure in getting one I think

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23 minutes ago, Bairnardo said:

Mon then Scotland. Do the right thing and sack this disgusting "Union" clean off.

Our independence day is going to be perilously close to my Birthday. 

One day the people of Scotland will have its affairs run by the people of Scotland, hopefully that is decided on the 19th October next year. 

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Just now, Suspect Device said:

In a general election, it matters not a jot if they win all the seats, they will still be a minority in Westminster. Your argument would be against them using the Scottish parliamentary elections as a de facto referendum and thereby commanding more power.

The nature of it is concerning.

Vote for us or you’re against us. The day to day of this issue is not that black and white, even if the vote itself is.

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27 minutes ago, Abdul_Latif said:

Shameless power grab. If we can’t get this through just give us all the power anyway. What a brass neck.

Well. i guess people could always not vote for them.

I think it shows a maturity of politics in Scotland that our First Minister sets out a position for every eventuality. 1 Her door is open to sec 30 2. Legality of indyref2 w/o sec 30 tbc 3. what happens if legal (19.10.2023) what happens if not (GE). Notably they abide by each decision.

Much better than empty slogans and a general disregard for domestic and international law as represented by the UK today.

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1 minute ago, Cameron1875 said:

I have a horrible feeling it would be no again but worth another punt and lets see what happens next October. 

It surely can't be any worse than the current Westminster lot.

 

 

I've got a really sore arm, I think I'm going to saw it off at the bone. 

Just now, BigDoddyKane said:

It would be a mark of consistency in the level of support for another indyref though and add pressure in getting one I think

But this has been the case since 2014. 

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1 minute ago, BigDoddyKane said:

I get what your saying but I think from a yes perspective its about building up the pressure

As you're undoubtedly aware I'm talking from a Remain perspective so I can't see that strategy having any impact, think it's pretty much a nice way to make it seem like there's a plan after the SC loss and to temper expectations. 

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UK Government options for plan C in the face of decent SNP polling in the run up to a GE:

Deny they will accept it as a mandate. Try and keep the election on UK wide matters, run as 3 seperate parties and then probably get a shoeing. This is likely their best strategy. It saves up some more hurt down the line and doesn't exactly defuse the matter and probably leaves the next Scottish Holyrood election a foregone conclusion - but at least they can say they werent engaging with it.

Higher risk strategy:  Implicitely take it seriously by pooling resources into single Unionist coalition candidates, or a deliberate tactical voting operation. If they win that, they put the issue to bed as well as at least halving the SNP representation at Westminster. The second option is easier to sort but also fraught with the usual issues around who thinks they have the best shot in a given seat.

If they lose in the face of engaging with it as a policy, they won't have much option but to negotiate independence at that point.

My guess is they go down the denial route and it rumbles on into the Holyrood election.

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End of the day, that was a great speech, this is a great plan and it was delivered by a great leader. 

The opposition, understandably were completely unable to respond to the referal to the SC or the use of GE24 as a single issue with anything other than the wailing of spoilt weans with pissed pants and dropped chips. 

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If it does go down the General Election route, then the likeliest path to success is that Labour win the election but fall short of a majority (even including Lib Dem/Green), and therefore need the SNP's votes to prop them up as the government. The SNP's "election as referendum" tactic would make it easier for Labour to sell that to their supporters, and you'd see a timescale with fully approved referendum, probably carefully negotiated to give Labour a couple of years in power to consolidate things.

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Is to early to call it historic? A speech that might one day be written in history books of The Celtic Isles.

I found the responses from Dross, Anas and whatisname very thin and lacking democracy.

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2 minutes ago, Zern said:

Is to early to call it historic? A speech that might one day be written in history books of The Celtic Isles.

I found the responses from Dross, Anas and whatisname very thin and lacking democracy.

Standard.

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7 minutes ago, Zern said:

Is to early to call it historic? A speech that might one day be written in history books of The Celtic Isles.

I found the responses from Dross, Anas and whatisname very thin and lacking democracy.

They just don't have the skill to compete, either personally or politically as much as I want independence a true opposition would deliver a better standard of independence.

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