When will indyref2 happen?

[Detournement]

14 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

Do you really think there's less chance of that happening by remaining in the UK than becoming independent?

Aye actually.

I think that it used to be true about Scotland being more left leaning but the things that made it that way have largely disappeared and been replaced by electorally dominant new build suburbs with leased motors in the driveway and a culture dominated by the gentrified areas of the two big cities which are left liberal and very close to the Scottish government. Scotland will have a dull centrist politics for a long time.

England is very multi cultural, more urban and has crazy social pressures building up to due to public services being cut at the same time population has been increasing. It could go further right or left.

[TonyHendrix]

43 minutes ago, Antlion said:

Sounds more reasonable than “stay out of the EU forever and under Tory rule for the foreseeable future”.

Obviously,that's been the Tory plan all along. 

[Zern]

They're trying to deport people to a landlocked country in the centre of Africa, i think they might just be tending right rather than left there.

[welshbairn]

1 minute ago, Detournement said:

Aye actually.

I think that it used to be true about Scotland being more left leaning but the things that made it that way have largely disappeared and been replaced by electorally dominant new build suburbs with leased motors in the driveway and a culture dominated by the gentrified areas of the two big cities which are left liberal and very close to the Scottish government. Scotland will have a dull centrist politics for a long time.

England is very multi cultural, more urban and has crazy social pressures building up to due to public services being cut at the same time population has been increasing. It could go further right or left.

The English working classes seem to be going further to the right every day, a bit like yourself.

[BFTD]

8 minutes ago, Detournement said:

Aye actually.

I think that it used to be true about Scotland being more left leaning but the things that made it that way have largely disappeared and been replaced by electorally dominant new build suburbs with leased motors in the driveway and a culture dominated by the gentrified areas of the two big cities which are left liberal and very close to the Scottish government. Scotland will have a dull centrist politics for a long time.

England is very multi cultural, more urban and has crazy social pressures building up to due to public services being cut at the same time population has been increasing. It could go further right or left.

[TonyHendrix]

53 minutes ago, Detournement said:

The Westminster model is pish but that doesn't mean the independent Scotland model won't be worse.

As i've said Austria and Denmark are not similar countries to Scotland today or Scotland after an independence vote. It's complete ignorance to say they are.

Well we will soon find out.

Put it this way,if you are more than happy with the way the Tories are running the country then more fool you.

The proof was there for everyone to see when Britain was in 19th place in the European economy,just a place above Russia. 

 

 

[Zern]

Times are tough. I wonder what the tory plan will be to adjust to this? Will it be austerity or more austerity. Perhaps they'll try austerity?

Remember the first time we got austerity? Those were the good days.

[Albus Bulbasaur]

1 hour ago, Jeff Venom said:

Vote for a party post-independence that would run on bringing it all back into public ownership then.
You absolutely know that this isn't going to happen at UK level, so my statement being dumb or otherwise is irrelevant.
Why not be pragmatic about it?

This is the one that always tickles me. 

Why do people think under a PR system Scotland wouldn't be a blend of SNP/Labour/Tory with a sprinkle of Greens. 

If Scotland was so progressive and left leaning such parties would already exist and have support presently. What's stopping them now? 

The people that say if you dislike the SNP then the best thing to do is to vote Yes and they'll go and fade away can't possibly believe this themselves, it's nowhere near a likely scenario.

I would hate it to happen but would love to see some parallel world where Scotland votes for Yes and then elects a Scottish Tory government. 

[git-intae-thum]

Just a quick off the cuff thought....for example..... nationalisation of the crown estates and the associated leasing rights. An absolute windfall for the public purse given Scotland's shoreline.

This is the kind of policy a UK government would never consider

[Jeff Venom]

This is the one that always tickles me. 
Why do people think under a PR system Scotland wouldn't be a blend of SNP/Labour/Tory with a sprinkle of Greens. 
If Scotland was so progressive and left leaning such parties would already exist and have support presently. What's stopping them now? 
The people that say if you dislike the SNP then the best thing to do is to vote Yes and they'll go and fade away can't possibly believe this themselves, it's nowhere near a likely scenario.
I would hate it to happen but would love to see some parallel world where Scotland votes for Yes and then elects a Scottish Tory government. 

I personally wouldn't like it, but that Tory government would have been voted in by the residents of Scotland. There is nothing fundamentally wrong with this.

[D Angelo Barksdale]

34 minutes ago, Detournement said:

Aye actually.

I think that it used to be true about Scotland being more left leaning but the things that made it that way have largely disappeared and been replaced by electorally dominant new build suburbs with leased motors in the driveway and a culture dominated by the gentrified areas of the two big cities which are left liberal and very close to the Scottish government. Scotland will have a dull centrist politics for a long time.

England is very multi cultural, more urban and has crazy social pressures building up to due to public services being cut at the same time population has been increasing. It could go further right or left.

I'd agree that Scotland isn't much more left wing than England, in fact, extra parliamentary left opposition seems greater in England, but that may be due to the sheer size difference in population. I'd argue that it's more liberal though.

Any chance of England shifting leftwards ended with Corbyn's defeat and the subsequent and ongoing deselection and expelling of left wing members, not to mention those who also quit, unless of course you think Starmer, Streeting or Reeves are about to do the face turn of all face turns ?

At the very least, Scotland's electoral system provides an opportunity, however unlikely it may be atm, for a block from the left to extract concessions. There's also the argument that with the UK and Westminster politics being an utterly broken system with no one in the least bit interested in fixing it, the seismic shock of a Yes vote might actually be a catalyst for real change for everyone on this island.

[Detournement]

51 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

The English working classes seem to be going further to the right every day, a bit like yourself.

Naw.

https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2021/06/labour-not-conservatives-was-largest-party-among-low-income-workers-2019

[TonyHendrix]

35 minutes ago, Zern said:

Times are tough. I wonder what the tory plan will be to adjust to this? Will it be austerity or more austerity. Perhaps they'll try austerity?

Remember the first time we got austerity? Those were the good days.

I think I'm correct in saying that we've had 6 years of it so far,well according to Jacob Rees Mogg.

Just another 14 years of it to go,time flies when you're enjoying yourself.

 

Edited June 16, 2022 by TonyHendrix

[Zern]

2 minutes ago, Detournement said:

Naw.

https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2021/06/labour-not-conservatives-was-largest-party-among-low-income-workers-2019

Labour are thoroughly neoliberal and establishment, just ask SIR Kier Starmer, or you try the neoLiberal Democrats led by SIR Ed Davey. Not much evidence of any left wing parties down there. The FPTP system prevents them gaining representatives.

Also, citing the New Statesman as evidence of left wing intentions.. lol

[Zern]

7 minutes ago, TonyHendrix said:

I think I'm correct in saying that we've had 6 years of it so far,well according to Jacob Rees Mogg.

Just another 14 years of it to go,time flies when you're enjoying yourself.

It's weird how we did not have to wait decades to feel the benefits after we joined the EU.

[Ivo den Bieman]

1 hour ago, Detournement said:

Why do you think we would get in before North Macedonia or Turkey or Ukraine? 

There is a consistency to all these claims. We will be like Denmark, not Greece! We will be resource rich like Canada not Mexico! We will get into the EU much faster than Albania! It's blatant.

It's not about one thing being good and the other being bad. That's moronic. It's about having an understanding of the existing economic and political situation rather than just operating on vibes with a bit of Northern European chauvinism thrown in as well. 

This is Vote Leave bollocks.

1. There is no "queue" to get into the EU- it doesn't work like that. Otherwise please explain how literally dozens of countries have entered the EU since Turkey first applied to join the then EEC in 1987. Croatia being the latest, a mere 26 years later in 2013.

2. Unlike all the countries you mention. Scotland has previously been a member of the EU removed against its will by the vote of a larger nation of which it is still a constituent part. It meets the economic convergence criteria- please don't bite back at me about having to adopt the euro, as many countries are quite happily full EU members without adopting the euro. Scotland's anomalous position is uncharted water just as Brexit was.

I don't have to produce reams of supportive statements from European politicians (including the previously wary Spaniards & Italians). Yes, re-entry will not be automatic but there has been no suggestion from anyone that the process will not be quick and harmonious- certainly nothing like the 10 year process it took Croatia to get in, having applied formally in 2003.

Speaking of northern European chauvinism, the blocks in the process for Albania, Macedonia, Ukraine and Moldova is Macron and his mad ideas for a 2-speed Europe. There's been no suggestion from him that he plans to block Scotland, quite the opposite. That doesn't make Macron anything other than a c**t, a racist, someone desperate to come up with a big idea and scramble for relevance on the world stage, however shit. But his intransigence about Balkan and post-Soviet integration simply is not relevant here.

The Austrians and the Dutch remain implacably opposed to Turkey's membership, probably for not very pleasant reasons. Again, these are not comfortable things to read, but not relevant in Scotland's case.

The bigger problem the SNP face is NATO membership (a lot of opposition from the membership to this, not that anyone in the parliamentary parties / leadership listens to them anymore) and breaking up a NATO state with unforeseen consequences at a time of war. That, and my strong suspicion that this is all cosplay bollocks to keep the membership onside. The SNP no longer has a vision for an independent Scotland that anyone beyond the true believers can get behind and they don't really seem to have much of an argument presently beyond "aye, but we're not the Tories". We're asked to take on trust that they have some legal wheeze which will enable them to call a referendum without a Section 30 and that they have some big ticket sunlit uplands direction of travel with an exhausted and entitled leadership, and a battered electorate tired of constant political upheaval and turmoil (the opinion polls on whether folk think there should be a referendum next year are hardly a ringing endorsement of the plan).

An exhausted party that's been in power too long; an overly-cautious leadership that is guided by opinion polls; the capture of the radical elements of the 2014 movement by corporate lobbyists; stirring things up in NATO whilst the alliance faces its biggest-ever test; climate breakdown and the need for concerted supra-national action to deal with it (whilst the political mood seems to be moving in the opposite fascist, racist, isolationist, populist direction in Europe). These are the main things that will sink IndyRef2, not any bollocks about mythical EU queues or what currency will we use and will granny still get her pension at the Post Office.

It's not happening next year and I doubt until a new generation of politicians emerge, hopefully with most of the current Westminster cabinet in jail for corruption / corporate manslaughter, and after Sturgeon & co have retired to Carradale with a subscription to the London Review of Books and a box set of RL Stevenson novels.

 

Edited June 16, 2022 by Ivo den Bieman

[BFTD]

Absolutely wild this evening.

Can't wait to see what comes next. Maybe Wales is about to go militant libertarian.

[Detournement]

15 minutes ago, Ivo den Bieman said:

t meets the economic convergence criteria-

 

You need a central bank to meet the criteria. If the plan for this referendum is to stick with the Growth Commission then Scotland wouldn't have one.

[Ivo den Bieman]

The EU has always adjusted its principles to meet the political realities on the ground- see the Greek debt crisis, the accessions of a thoroughly corrupt Romania / Bulgaria in 2004, their pussyfooting around Hungary and Poland's far-right governments and their awkward positions on Russia, LGBT & womens' rights, respectively.

A form of words is always found. But it's fantasy politics presently.

Edited June 16, 2022 by Ivo den Bieman

[Detournement]

21 minutes ago, Ivo den Bieman said:

 

It's not happening next year and I doubt until a new generation of politicians emerge, hopefully with most of the current Westminster cabinet in jail for corruption / corporate manslaughter, and after Sturgeon & co have retired to Carradale with a subscription to the London Review of Books and a box set of RL Stevenson novels.

 

We agree on that. Any enthusiasm for a referendum next year from Sturgeon and Harvie is a bluff as they know the Tories will say no. It's all about keeping their supporters onside with constitutional stuff because the day to day at Holyrood won't do it.