When will indyref2 happen?

[strichener]

8 hours ago, GTG_03 said:

They also believe that there is a big UK pension pot. I'm sure they'd be mortified if they learned that pensions are paid from current tax contributions.

There is a pension pot.  It is called the National Insurance Fund.  It isn't big bit it does exist.  NI Fund

[DeeTillEhDeh]

It is the same poster - it's a tweet from 2014 [emoji23]

My bad!!

They're still duplicitous though - claiming they'd reduce the bills etc etc.

[BigDoddyKane]

On 06/01/2022 at 00:44, Glen Sannox said:

I reckon it’s dead in the water. Even with the worst Prime Minister in Britain’s history at the helm, the SNP have been found wanting and exposed as the silly little, tinpot cult that they are. 

id say its the opposite, with everything as it is it would be nearly impossible to lose indy2

 

I dont think NS is any better than an average politican but it would take a monumental feck up by the snp if its not won

[BFTD]

6 minutes ago, BigDoddyKane said:

id say its the opposite, with everything as it is it would be nearly impossible to lose indy2

 

I dont think NS is any better than an average politican but it would take a monumental feck up by the snp if its not won

TBF, we could be independent for decades under our own Tory government and Glen would still be castigating the SNP cult and claiming it's a pipe dream to be run by anyone other than whatever's in Westminster.

[Kenneth840]

3 hours ago, BigDoddyKane said:

id say its the opposite, with everything as it is it would be nearly impossible to lose indy2

 

I dont think NS is any better than an average politican but it would take a monumental feck up by the snp if its not won

Could that monumental f**k up not be using the same franchise and question as in 2014?  

Change the question to something like "Should Scotland dissolve the Treaty of Union" and make the Union the contentious issue. 

 

[Kenneth840]

On 03/02/2022 at 23:08, Jedi said:

2023 NS will ask (presumably) Sunak by then, to be told 'no'....so whats the plan?

Surely have to enter the GE saying that a clear majority of Scottish seats means a start to negotiations, as suggested before. If the Tories block that outcome, take them to court.

A clear majority of pro independence mps at any other parliament in the world would simply declare independence.  So I agree with you, a clear majority should be the beginning of the end of the union. 

The problem begins when we take it to court and the court of session is overuled by the UK supreme court which will decide it is illegal.  Which is to be expected, because the clue is in the title UK!  Of course they will overthrow any decision that threatens the integrity of the UK.  The biggest barrier in my opinion to Scotland achieving her Independence is her people, they are not prepared to accept that they don't need court decisions to be free, they only need to vote for it.  

Until we lose our Scottish cringe, we will never be independent. 

 

[Guest Jedi]

But if they do vote for it ('if' the SNP did indeed enter the GE saying clear majority of MP's this time, negotiations start), what happens in your scenario where the Court overrules that?

We seem to have hit a buffer, again, no Tory govt is going to agree to a Ref, can't hold a 'wildcat' one as it would never be recognised, enter the GE clear majority of MP's...Tories use the court to overturn it. 

Do we go to the UN next?

[BFTD]

1 hour ago, Jedi said:

But if they do vote for it ('if' the SNP did indeed enter the GE saying clear majority of MP's this time, negotiations start), what happens in your scenario where the Court overrules that?

After squirming on UDI for so long, that's the final thing that Kenneth doesn't want to admit, and for good reason.

[Kenneth840]

10 hours ago, Jedi said:

But if they do vote for it ('if' the SNP did indeed enter the GE saying clear majority of MP's this time, negotiations start), what happens in your scenario where the Court overrules that?

We seem to have hit a buffer, again, no Tory govt is going to agree to a Ref, can't hold a 'wildcat' one as it would never be recognised, enter the GE clear majority of MP's...Tories use the court to overturn it. 

Do we go to the UN next?

When the UK supreme court (which I believe breaches the treaty of union in itself) overules the Scottish governments and peoples decision to dissolve the treaty of union then i believe that will confirm for all to see that we are a colony of England.  Then we appeal to the UN as a colony and seek the right to self determination under article 1 which I believe would be our right. 

As the UK is a member of the UN security council and also recognised Kosovo independence I believe they would have to accept our right to self determination under UN rules that they are a signatory to. 

[Guest Jedi]

Don't disagree that it would potentially have to go all the way to the UN...could be looking at some time for that to all go through though...

GE first, in 2 and a half years time, so probably mid-late 2024

Then...go to the Supreme Court probably a year of back and forth late 2025

Then the UN another year of wrangling 2026

Then, potentially the start of negotiations...could be another 2 years, so 28.

So, in all, at least 6 years from now.....that is a long time (in politics) for the SNP to retain popularity, having, by then been in govt for 18 years.

[Guest Jedi]

Even with the latest shenanigans, the most recent polling is tied at 44% for both Yes and No, with 8% undecided. Would surely expect a commanding Yes lead in light of Westminster's current situation, but still too close to call.

Think the SNP need to lay out a clear strategy for the public now. Of course NS has said 'intend to hold a Ref next year', but she is doing so, knowing that the answer will be No. Needs to be a 'in the event of Westminster saying No, we propose moving to x, next'

[Soapy FFC]

Does this mean Liz Truss would support another referendum?

 

[Clown Job]

4 minutes ago, Soapy FFC said:

Does this mean Liz Truss would support another referendum?

 

* T&C apply - Offer excludes Scotland & Wales 

[strichener]

On 06/02/2022 at 09:08, Jedi said:

Don't disagree that it would potentially have to go all the way to the UN...could be looking at some time for that to all go through though...

GE first, in 2 and a half years time, so probably mid-late 2024

Then...go to the Supreme Court probably a year of back and forth late 2025

Then the UN another year of wrangling 2026

Then, potentially the start of negotiations...could be another 2 years, so 28.

So, in all, at least 6 years from now.....that is a long time (in politics) for the SNP to retain popularity, having, by then been in govt for 18 years.

Aye but the EU would have us in a couple of weeks after any vote which will undoubtedly persuade the UN.

[sophia]

6 minutes ago, oaksoft said:

The SNP will have some work rebuilding the trust lost amongst many of us with their control freakery over covid and a range of other issues.

I think you'll find that your good self and your acolytes on the c thread are statistical insignificant, not just on p&b but nationally also. I have to put it to you in blunt terms that your flagellation doesn't necessarily reflect reality.

Also, the range of other issues?

I'd be interested to know.

Should you wish to  reply with objective verifications, I would appreciate it if you would do so whilst avoiding the use of the infantile "mammy" or similar epithets.

[sophia]

2 hours ago, oaksoft said:

If you think 40-50% of voters is a statistical insignificance then there's not much point discussing it further.

That's quite apart from the issue of securing another referendum again in the first place.

Still not heard any ideas about how that's going to be achieved.

That's on top of the SNP having no serious answers to ANY of the questions which led to their failure to win in 2014.

The reason there are no answers coming from Sturgeon on anything is because they have no answers to give.

They're simply hoping that 9 months of flag waving will win next time.

Listen, they might be right. Good luck with that strategy. I voted for it last time but won't be doing so next time and I'm not alone.

A compelling vision of where they want to take Scotland with independence is going to be the bare minimum they'll need to present to have any chance of winning next time - if there even IS a next time. I'm not sure why asking for that is seen as unreasonable.

I'm so terribly sorry, you seem to have confused my request for verification of trust lost in a range of issues with bluster.

In terms on an indy vote and in broad terms 45% will not be moved come what may, so the target is the 5-10%, not the 40-50% you claim. One would have thought that you'd have grasped these sorts of numbers after two years of staring at stats in the c thread.

Perhaps someone as brilliant as Nicola is aiming to win the key cohort with a simplistic message involving nationalism but since they aren't nationalists, I rather think not.

[sophia]

25 minutes ago, oaksoft said:

What target? I made no claims about any targets. 

I said that I share the views of about 50% of the Scottish population.

You called that insignificant. I disagree.

You appear to be smoking something herbal so I'll leave it there. 

No range of issues then?

[tirso]

This thread doesn't matter as the UK govt have decided it's irrelevant what the target is or any of your opinion.  

 

Let that settle in before typing paragraphs about pros, cons and targets.  Your opinion doesn't matter.  That goes for Oakshelf and it goes for pro-Independents.  The liberty to change your mind  with arguments good or bad is of no relevance. 

 

Doesn't matter what 2, 3, 4, 5 million citizens of Scotland think on the matter, it's upto one person in 10 downing street or a Labour MP for an English constituency maneuvering.

 

Is that right?  You decide but if we ever get the chance and I don't expect it anytime soon, i'll be voting Yes.  

 

 

[Guest Jedi]

If they don't get either a Ref (not going to happen), or a push for a majority of MP's starting negotiations off the back of the next GE, its done.

What would the SNP position at the next Scottish election be in that scenario?...vote for us and we will have a mandate for a Ref? By that time looking to win their 8th (eight!) straight election (GE/Scot)  in a row. Even the most hardened Independence supporter by that stage would surely say 'what is the point'?

The window is between now and just after the next GE, or it ain't happening imo.

Edited February 8, 2022 by Jedi

[Guest Jedi]

Good points. I suppose that it has been difficult in some respects for Sturgeon....she knows that Westminster will continually so No to any Ref request, and at the same time she believes that this will shore up and also boost support for Independence.

However, it hasn't, as, essentially the Yes vote, despite being in the lead on several occasions, has never sustained that 60% margin, needed to be sure of winning.

As you say, by constantly promising a Ref 'soon', 'next year', soon...honestly', 'we have drawn up plans' etc, the SNP have handed the power of the Ref as well as its timing firmly back to Westminster.

Those at the top of the SNP must surely know that the clock is really ticking though...as said-how will they be able to approach the next Scottish Election? Give us our 8th win in a row, and we really, really promise this time, that there will be a Ref next year? Why, what makes it different to the last 8 times you said that?

Edited February 10, 2022 by Jedi