When will indyref2 happen?

[Antlion]

14 minutes ago, Glen Sannox said:

Well the most important one for a start. She made it clear that she wanted to be part of the EU’s shambolic vaccine procurement/rollout.

Then you’ve got the well documented fisheries, state subsidies etc. Edinburgh would have no input into these.

Which should make you, as someone who loves decisions being made elsewhere without Edinburgh’s input, the EU’s biggest fan. 

Edited May 13, 2021 by Antlion

[renton]

30 minutes ago, Glen Sannox said:

Well the most important one for a start. She made it clear that she wanted to be part of the EU’s shambolic vaccine procurement/rollout.

Then you’ve got the well documented fisheries, state subsidies etc. Edinburgh would have no input into these.

Yes, our fisheries are definitely better off now.

As to state subsidies, the other EU nations have found various ways of directly and indirectly supporting strategic industries over the years.

The UK doesn't, because the UK political class has an ingrained outlook towards hands off, free market economics that leaves us high and dry.

Let's not forget how close AstraZeneca came to not existing in 2012 when Cameron's government refused to lift a finger to stop a buy out of AZ by Pfizer who, whatever their current social standing, were long known to be serial asset strippers. 

Would the world be better off now had Pfizer come in and been allowed to carry off AZ patents and running down the UK arm of the business? In the end the AZ board fought off the proposed take over in what one City analyst called "The most blatant disregard for share holder value" he'd seen (which, when you get down to it is the core issue - does AZ exist to make pharmaceuticals or to enhance share holder value?)

Another example would be ARM. The crown jewels of the UK semiconductor business, and a truly important part of the semiconductor eco system. Allowed to be sold off to Softbank in 2016 with Theresa May trumpeting the idea it meant Britain was "open for business" as if in her head the whole idea of UK industry was of something to be sold off.

When SoftBank proposed to sell it, we now have Nvidia wanting to buy it, which will give Nvidia a short term boost in IP and revenue but will destroy ARM'S business model as other companies like Apple and Intel will no longer want to license chip design from a direct competitor. 

So yeah, I will take EU rules on state subsidy and competition. Because it's not them that make the UK a poor place to run a business. That honour goes to the technology illiterates in the City and in Government all clutching at their copies of Friedman.

Edited May 13, 2021 by renton

[BigDoddyKane]

14 minutes ago, SandyCromarty said:

Yes the historic election results for the SNP confirms your assumption.

It would appear that the result hurt deeply and straws are being firmly grasped.

I think though I may be wrong is oaksoft not for independence. 

Having some critical thought and discussion about why the last indy vote was a No isnt a bad thing, is it?

Edited May 13, 2021 by BigDoddyKane

[John Lambies Doos]

Well the most important one for a start. She made it clear that she wanted to be part of the EU’s shambolic vaccine procurement/rollout.
Then you’ve got the well documented fisheries, state subsidies etc. Edinburgh would have no input into these.

I believe the vaccine programme in Ireland is going fine now, onto people in their 50s, albeit couple of weeks behind Scotland.
Not sure you really want to measure UKs covid response vs Eire though.. Wouldn't look good for Johnson based on other variables. Anyway I'm sure that will all come out (suppressed) in the independent (tory led enquiry) which will follow.

[ahemps]

3 hours ago, BigDoddyKane said:

So you think in less than a year, maybe that is the case. I dont know myself.

It would be be very simple for EU to come out and clarify it and then any doubt is gone. 

Surely this is something that has to be done before the next referendum? And will be unacceptable if it is not. If there is 3yrs before the referendum then whether or not we will be accepted has to be clarified. It shouldn't be a debate between the different sides whether we will get in or not.

[ahemps]

1 minute ago, John Lambies Doos said:

I believe the vaccine programme in Ireland is going fine now, onto people in their 50s, albeit couple of weeks behind Scotland.
Not sure you really want to measure UKs covid response vs Eire though.. Wouldn't look good for Johnson based on other variables. Anyway I'm sure that well all come out (suppressed) in the independent (tory led enquiry) which will follow.

Scotland and Ireland are very comparable countries in terms of culture, weather, population size and density, probably 2 of the most comparable countries in Europe. How did Scotland's death rate compare to Irelands?

You are comparing Irelands vaccine rollout rate against Scotland to say theirs is fine but comparing death rates against the UK to highlight how bad the UK have been.

Scotland were allowed to make many of their own choices in the response to covid and our response has been abysmal, the fact England have been worse isn't good enough for me.

[John Lambies Doos]

Scotland and Ireland are very comparable countries in terms of culture, weather, population size and density, probably 2 of the most comparable countries in Europe. How did Scotland's death rate compare to Irelands?
You are comparing Irelands vaccine rollout rate against Scotland to say theirs is fine but comparing death rates against the UK to highlight how bad the UK have been.
Scotland were allowed to make many of their own choices in the response to covid and our response has been abysmal, the fact England have been worse isn't good enough for me.

Scotland just shy of 8k deaths, Ireland just shy of 5K deaths. Even taken into account that Scotland has a slightly higher population, death rate in Ireland is far lower plus vaccine rollout is only c. 2 weeks behind.

My whole premise of initial response was to debunk the right wing myth that UK has been far superior to EU which in the case of Ireland (an eu country, and as you say the most comparative to Scotland) it certainly has not.

[SANTAN]

1 hour ago, BigDoddyKane said:

I think though I may be wrong is oaksoft not for independence. 

Having some critical thought and discussion about why the last indy vote was a No isnt a bad thing, is it?

It is a terrible thing on here. People prefer to groupthink, not reply when mistakes are pointed out and lead points with "my mates mates said it's true, trust me".

Brilliant reading the last few pages it must be said. Now do that debate but on a national level, if you cant explain your point succinctly then people will switch off. The EU question needs better solutions or better strategy on how to play it imo, just read the last two pages and imagine your average Scot sitting through that and not switching off. 

[GordonS]

6 hours ago, BigDoddyKane said:

I guess a lot of people would want to know what does that actually mean. Its a great statement but whats the reality and until its stated clearly by EU its all ifs and buts.

How long after Scotland decides (through a referendum vote I guess of some sort) to apply to join/rejoin EU would it happen. Is it 1 year,5 years,10 years?

Then we would have some idea of how a roadmap for that path will look.

As long as we're still compliant with what they call the acquis, the body of EU law, I think we'd be able to rejoin on the same timescale as becoming independent. Leaving the UK and taking responsibility for foreign affairs, defence, tax and social security is massively more complex than joining the EU.

So say we voted for independence in September 2024, we could vote on rejoining the EU in May 2025 and we could become independent and join the EU on the same day sometime in 2027.

The Scottish Government did a lot of contingency planning on this in 2014 and it would need little more than a dusting off.

[GordonS]

4 hours ago, Glen Sannox said:

But the SNP don’t want the important decisions made in Edinburgh, they want them made in Brussels.

You do realise the EU is a club made up of its members, right? It's not some alien invasion, dishing out orders to the Earthlings.

I get the distinct impression all you know about how the EU works you learned through the Daily Mail. Do you know how much scope paying agencies have to implement CAP? The's more difference between Scotland and England on CAP than on healthcare delivery. 

[Baxter Parp]

Well the most important one for a start. She made it clear that she wanted to be part of the EU’s shambolic vaccine procurement/rollout.
Then you’ve got the well documented fisheries, state subsidies etc. Edinburgh would have no input into these.

Scotland would have the same influence on policy that the UK had. The EU regularly has conferences of Agriculture and Fisheries ministers.

[BigDoddyKane]

10 minutes ago, GordonS said:

As long as we're still compliant with what they call the acquis, the body of EU law, I think we'd be able to rejoin on the same timescale as becoming independent. Leaving the UK and taking responsibility for foreign affairs, defence, tax and social security is massively more complex than joining the EU.

So say we voted for independence in September 2024, we could vote on rejoining the EU in May 2025 and we could become independent and join the EU on the same day sometime in 2027.

The Scottish Government did a lot of contingency planning on this in 2014 and it would need little more than a dusting off.

Do you think the EU will come out with a statement before any Indy2 to confirm that or will they avoid getting involved till after any indy2 

[BigDoddyKane]

Id be happy for Scotland to rejoin the EU and its up to the democratic will of Scotland to decide that. I think it would say Yes and theres plenty good reasons why Scotland should.

I do have a couple of concerns about the EU in terms of where its going in future.

1.  The lobbying is to big already and its on course to get bigger and that will bring imo a Washington Style of politics with it. 

2. I distrust rightly or wrongly large political organisations and history shows they tend to become more corrupt as time goes on

Now im not saying im right but those are 2 concerns I have about EU. They wouldnt be enough at the moment to ever vote to leave EU but looking at the future and possible scenarios

id hope they are being looked at in ways that would stop them happening

 

 

[speckled tangerine]

4 minutes ago, oaksoft said:

 

The EU won't allow itself to be dragged into the IndyRef2 debate by providing any clarity over membership.

 

I think you may be surprised. Apart from the chance to bring a part of the British Isles back into the fold what loyalty does the EU have to the UK? 

Surely the realpolitik would bear out as well as a massive "f**k you" to Boris Johnson or whatever Tory clown succeeds him.

Short of a full announcement I fully expect very positive statements from figures within the EU, well past a nod and a wink. 

[Glen Sannox]

27 minutes ago, Pato said:

Probably any number of variants of 'Ireland uses the euro. Did you know a bus driver in Ireland gets paid 35000 euros a year? That's £30000. A bus driver here only earns £23000. Euros don't sound so bad to me.'

Nonsense. LRT pay their drivers £30k per annum.

[speckled tangerine]

5 minutes ago, oaksoft said:

And the response will be:-

"...and Ireland have no real power in the EU because that is concentrated in Brussels among the French and the Germans.

Anyway, there's no guarantee the EU will even accept Scotland at all and if they do, how is such a small country going to be able to negotiate anything other than a shite set of terms and conditions against the might of the entire EU? The UK couldn't get an acceptable deal via Cameron. How will Sturgeon manage it? We'll have Spanish fishermen all over UK waters.

We have no lender of last resort. No track record of financial prudence, nothing.

We'll be at the back of the queue and you can't prove otherwise.

It's a risk the country doesn't need to take on top of everything else we're going through right now."

How would you respond to that?

I would respond quite simply visit Norn Iron, then visit Ireland.

Then tell me which has the better infrastructure, higher wages, better prospects and standard of living.

Then tell me which union is best.

[Glen Sannox]

53 minutes ago, GordonS said:

You do realise the EU is a club made up of its members, right? It's not some alien invasion, dishing out orders to the Earthlings.

I get the distinct impression all you know about how the EU works you learned through the Daily Mail. Do you know how much scope paying agencies have to implement CAP? The's more difference between Scotland and England on CAP than on healthcare delivery. 

The usual sneering nonsense with a Daily Mail reference thrown in. All that’s missing is some of that hilarious gammon patter.

[Glen Sannox]

11 minutes ago, Pato said:

Sure great that's how averages work, some get more, some get less. Point is Ireland, which is in the big bad EU, generally speaking has higher salaries for any number of jobs than here. The aim is to underline that Britannia isn't ruling the waves or even paying you a fair whack for your work.

It always surprises me, how many people want to live in Britain given how bad it apparently is. 

[BigDoddyKane]

what would be the reasons the EU wouldnt come out with a clear statement that Scotland could rejoin the EU zone quickly? 

 

If it did come out with a statement that Scotland could rejoin automatically after a referendum on joining could we skip creating our own currency and just go straight to the Euro, if the timescale is short enough.?

Edited May 13, 2021 by BigDoddyKane

[Antlion]

9 minutes ago, Pato said:

#1 would be Spanish tensions with Catalonia.

#2 would be hesitancy to go through another 'PIGS' situation.

#3 would be wanting to maintain good relations with the UK.

We can't skip our own currency as we need to demonstrate certain criteria are met before joining the Euro. I don't personally favour joining the Euro but I can see how it can be made to be attractive and simple to say we would.

If #3 - cosying up to Johnson and his Europhobic freaks - trumped actually welcoming a prospective, EU-friendly country, at that point I (as a pro-EU person) would be happy to see the institution told to f**k off, and embrace EFTA instead with no view to rejoining the EU. I don’t think it’ll happen, though. Similarly, I’d be less inclined towards the EU if they refuse to be positive towards Scotland purely to tacitly endorse Spain’s constitution.