When will indyref2 happen?

[John Lambies Doos]

Being in the euro means that you have no control over your interest rate policy and therefore the strength or weakness of the currency might affect you adversely.
For some countries, Greece, Spain, Italy for example,  are forced to trade at a level higher than suits them whilst Germany has a level lower than it needs and therefore aids its exports greatly.

But you could say that re. the pound in the UK

[D Angelo Barksdale]

The simple answer to the EU question is that we can have a referendum on membership shortly after independence.

Given that we've only just come out and will still be aligned on lots of things and the EU would probably look favourably on our membership post Brexit, there's a decent chance we would be fast tracked or even admitted as some sort of legacy member.

However, there's no need to go into any of that unless there are cast iron guarantees from the EU. Equally, any yoons touting the 10-15 year timescale and forced entry into the Euro can be safely ignored.

[NotThePars]

I wonder whether the SNP's private figures are telling them they NEED to be in the EU to make independence work financially in the short term. Is there a chance they think we need the gallons of support that Eire had? I can't think of any other explanation for muddying the waters with two huge issues in this way.

The near entire justification for a second referendum came about because of the material change in conditions when the UK exited the EU. If the SNP turned round and said “hmm, maybe we don’t need to be in after all” it weakens the argument for another referendum.

Also the SNP are very europhile and subscribe to the same economic consensus that dominates the EU so it’s a no-brainer for them.

[Dawson Park Boy]

45 minutes ago, John Lambies Doos said:

1 hour ago, Dawson Park Boy said:

Being in the euro means that you have no control over your interest rate policy and therefore the strength or weakness of the currency might affect you adversely.
For some countries, Greece, Spain, Italy for example,  are forced to trade at a level higher than suits them whilst Germany has a level lower than it needs and therefore aids its exports greatly.

But you could say that re. the pound in the UK

The pound floats on a daily basis against all other currencies and finds its value relative to the state of our economy.

The UK is one country.

[SANTAN]

I think if they formally said they would have a referendum on the EU project Fear would have a field day. 

Voting for Indy Scotland joining the EU sounds a lot more attractive than we could leave the UK and choose not to go into the EU and be left stranded. That level of uncertainty would be a huge factor on uncertain voters imo. 

[Baxter Parp]

2 hours ago, John Lambies Doos said:

Still don't understand the opposition to the Euro, serving Ireland quite well

You need an independent currency and lots of hoop jumping to join the Euro.  Would take years.

[ayrmad]

1 hour ago, Henderson to deliver ..... said:

The simple answer to the EU question is that we can have a referendum on membership shortly after independence.

Given that we've only just come out and will still be aligned on lots of things and the EU would probably look favourably on our membership post Brexit, there's a decent chance we would be fast tracked or even admitted as some sort of legacy member.

However, there's no need to go into any of that unless there are cast iron guarantees from the EU. Equally, any yoons touting the 10-15 year timescale and forced entry into the Euro can be safely ignored.

They can't be safely ignored as a chunk of the population gobble that shit up with gusto.

[D Angelo Barksdale]

4 minutes ago, ayrmad said:

They can't be safely ignored as a chunk of the population gobble that shit up with gusto.

Fortunately, the same people who will be touting the 15 year timescales and the forced entry into the Euro will be the same folk who were shouting that the only way to remain in the EU was to vote No.

[John Lambies Doos]

The pound floats on a daily basis against all other currencies and finds its value relative to the state of our economy.
The UK is one country.

But the pound is worth more in Dumbarton than it is in leatherhead

[GordonS]

10 hours ago, SandyCromarty said:

We've been over currency and pensions repeatedly on here and shown appropriate answers to pensions and currency on Independence.

And there is no more mileage left in the pensions and currency argument for the anti Independence mob. 

The problem with the currency debate is that the right answer economically (a Scottish currency) is the wrong answer politically (keep the pound). Polling is very clear on that.

2 hours ago, Henderson to deliver ..... said:

The simple answer to the EU question is that we can have a referendum on membership shortly after independence.

Given that we've only just come out and will still be aligned on lots of things and the EU would probably look favourably on our membership post Brexit, there's a decent chance we would be fast tracked or even admitted as some sort of legacy member.

However, there's no need to go into any of that unless there are cast iron guarantees from the EU. Equally, any yoons touting the 10-15 year timescale and forced entry into the Euro can be safely ignored.

We should have the EU referendum after voting for independence but before we become independent, because it would make a lot of sense to rejoin from day 1.

I work with a lot of people who had, and still have, a lot of dealings with the European Commission, and in Brussels they're working on the assumption that it's just a matter of time before we're back. We're fully compliant with EU law anyway and as far as they're concerned we would be waved in enthusiastically, with only a little grumbling from Spain. But they can't say it publicly because the members states are huge believers in not meddling in the internal affairs of third countries. 

1 hour ago, John Lambies Doos said:

2 hours ago, Dawson Park Boy said:

The pound floats on a daily basis against all other currencies and finds its value relative to the state of our economy.
The UK is one country.

But the pound is worth more in Dumbarton than it is in leatherhead

This is a really important point. The economy of the UK is ludicrously skewed to the overheated south east. The north of England would blossom under a separate currency, they'd undercut their southern competitors and manufacturing would go through the roof. It would be bad for the economy overall through barriers and transaction costs, but the idea that Germany can't be in a currency with Italy while Pimlico is in a currency with Hull is obviously wrong.

[NotThePars]

4 minutes ago, oaksoft said:

Yes but that would be compounding one error with another.

We should not have been even thinking about announcing a referendum before 2025. That would have taken care of the EU thing and allowed us to go at our own pace and under as much control as  we could reasonably have.

Impatience means we have called a referendum too early on the back of Brexit and now we're tied to having to deal with the uncertainty around EU membership at the same time? That is a dreadful strategy. We're just making all the same mistakes all over again.

I only hope there are at least some people in power who are able to exercise a bit less of a headless chicken approach to all of this than has been demonstrated so far. We need to stop making decisions based on emotions.

I think the ship has sailed at this point and there's a sizeable enough number of, uh, sailors who will mutiny if they don't reach their intended destination sooner than later. The SNP are the only show atm but governing fatigue, splits between the fundies and the cautious wing and the unionist camp getting better at tactically voting might splinter that unassailable lead at some point before we can get over the line or at least I think that's what the worry is over the long term strategy. There are a lot of people who're lending their vote or are unhappy at the perceived lack of movement but it's difficult to gauge how big those numbers are.

I think it's pretty obvious that the Tory electoral strategy is to sit back, say no, and let the SNP tear itself apart. The first serious test of that strategy has been a total failure with Alba being a lame duck so maybe the coalition will hold for a long while yet but I don't think this is the end of the internal divisions. Hopefully Sturgeon has a way of forcing out the intransigent dissenters and silencing the more loosely sceptical lot but time will tell. I think last week was probably about as good as it could've went for Sturgeon and she should have a good opportunity to strengthen her position going forward.

Anyway, I've rambled at length more than I anticipated. It's going to be a really interesting parliamentary term for sure.

[Glen Sannox]

3 hours ago, Henderson to deliver ..... said:

The simple answer to the EU question is that we can have a referendum on membership shortly after independence.

Given that we've only just come out and will still be aligned on lots of things and the EU would probably look favourably on our membership post Brexit, there's a decent chance we would be fast tracked or even admitted as some sort of legacy member.

However, there's no need to go into any of that unless there are cast iron guarantees from the EU. Equally, any yoons touting the 10-15 year timescale and forced entry into the Euro can be safely ignored.

Not a very simple answer if there’s only a “decent chance”. There is next to no evidence that Scotland would be fast tracked back in to their club. This is going to become a very hard sell for the SNP.

[speckled tangerine]

8 minutes ago, Glen Sannox said:

Not a very simple answer if there’s only a “decent chance”. There is next to no evidence that Scotland would be fast tracked back in to their club. This is going to become a very hard sell for the SNP.

There is next to no evidence that Scotland WOULDN'T be fast tracked into the club. 

 

[D Angelo Barksdale]

19 minutes ago, oaksoft said:

You can't ignore it - safely or otherwise.

It's a legitimate attack by the unionists and a better answer needs to be provided.

By tying IndyRef2 up with EU membership, the SNP have tied themselves into a trap and are now a hostage to fortune. 

The UK can attack them at will over this and will score one direct hit after another.

It's a massive strategic mistake.

Yes you can. It's one of a number of bad faith arguments that the No side will put up. If we're willing go on the back foot and willing to get pulled into trying to explain big complex answers to obvious bullshit like 'you'll be forced to use the Euro', then I'd rather we didn't bother at all, because in that case, we'll already be beat.

[D Angelo Barksdale]

14 minutes ago, Glen Sannox said:

Not a very simple answer if there’s only a “decent chance”. There is next to no evidence that Scotland would be fast tracked back in to their club. This is going to become a very hard sell for the SNP.

Read the very next sentence I wrote.

I don't think rejoining the EU is going to be a hard sell to a Scottish public that overwhelmingly voted for it, or that the EU are going to be intransigent about us rejoining.

[strichener]

25 minutes ago, speckled tangerine said:

There is next to no evidence that Scotland WOULDN'T be fast tracked into the club. 

 

There is no precedent for this.

[speckled tangerine]

5 minutes ago, strichener said:

There is no precedent for this.

They would roll out the red carpet. 

No precedent.

[GordonS]

10 minutes ago, strichener said:

There is no precedent for this.

Yes. The first time a thing happens there is never any precedent for it.

[strichener]

1 minute ago, speckled tangerine said:

They would roll out the red carpet. 

No precedent.

So the EU would roll out the Red Carpet and fast track us.  I think you may be thinking on celebrities at Disneyland.

There has been no indication and there is no precedent for the EU to fast track Scotland.

[strichener]

Just now, GordonS said:

Yes. The first time a thing happens there is never any precedent for it.

Funny, I thought plenty of countries had applied to join the EU.  Didn't realise Scotland would be the first.