When will indyref2 happen?

[Granny Danger]

17 minutes ago, HTG said:

Unionists can do what they like. If the referendum has legal status then its results will stand. 

I can understand why BJ and his cohorts are shiting themselves though. They know they'll "lose" Scotland in the event of a vote. 

If the Supreme Court rules that the Scottish Parliament is acting on the will of the people in terms of holding a referendum then it'll be interesting to see the response from London. If the people continue to give a majority to independence minded parties, it's also difficult to show working where the outcome is that the people have shown a different will. We're only talking about getting to the point of holding a referendum here - not declaring UDI. 

Don’t know why the Tories are so bothered.  An Independent Scotland will mean the rUK in Tory hands for the foreseeable future.

[dirty dingus]

DO you think the majority of Scots will sit back and let one clown at westminster dictate our destiny?

[Inanimate Carbon Rod]

4 minutes ago, Granny Danger said:

I’m more convinced than ever that it’s on the horizon.

Just dont see where we get the go ahead to hold it. 

[Granny Danger]

Just now, Inanimate Carbon Rod said:

Just dont see where we get the go ahead to hold it. 

Others have answered this on the legal question.  I think if it’s front and centre of the SNP/Green campaigns next year then it will be hard to deny.

I can see people taking the matter into their owns hands if obstacles are put in the way.  It could be argued that direct action is unacceptable in a democracy but wholly acceptable when democracy is denied or thwarted.

[Inanimate Carbon Rod]

1 minute ago, Granny Danger said:

Others have answered this on the legal question.  I think if it’s front and centre of the SNP/Green campaigns next year then it will be hard to deny.

I can see people taking the matter into their owns hands if obstacles are put in the way.  It could be argued that direct action is unacceptable in a democracy but wholly acceptable when democracy is denied or thwarted.

Well it would seem that every prior democratic mandate post brexit vote has been ignored, prior requests for permission also denied despite SNP overwhelming wins etc. I just basically can’t see it happening. 

[Granny Danger]

Just now, Inanimate Carbon Rod said:

Well it would seem that every prior democratic mandate post brexit vote has been ignored, prior requests for permission also denied despite SNP overwhelming wins etc. I just basically can’t see it happening. 

Like I say I think it’s how it’s presented.  The 2021 Holyrood elections will be a plebiscite on another IndyRef vote.  I think there will be a 50%+ for the SNP and Greens.

We will see.

 

[Anonapersona]

One significant problem is people have been conditioned into auto-accepting a refusal for WM to grant a referendum. At some point in time there has to be a tipping point though.

Or Scotland can accept that the English will be voting tory for a long time.

[O'Kelly Isley III]

One significant problem is people have been conditioned into auto-accepting a refusal for WM to grant a referendum. At some point in time there has to be a tipping point though.
Or Scotland can accept that the English will be voting tory for a long time.

You might not have to wait too long for that tipping point. For four years Brexit has lain like one of these WWII bombs which occasionally surface; dormant but still very dangerous. That is all going to change in the very near future and whilst the fallout from this lunatic piece of electoral ordnance will affect everyone in the UK, I think it will concentrate minds massively in Scotland.

[NotThePars]

Events. In 2012 it was negotiated from a position of minority support, this time it's from a position of majority support. That opens up avenues that weren't available back then.

Which are?

[DublinMagyar]

Last time of counting it was 44.7% wanted yes and that was from an 84.6% turnout, do you really think there would be a complete turnaround if there was another referendum?
It might need those who voted no to change their minds.
There is a lot of Unionist and no vote support in Scotland than those who have a blinkered approach to Independence might believe. It's is complete denial of the previous referendum result that had the No vote at 55.3%. The Unionists are not a minority in Scotland and the UK Government are quite aware of this, 28 out of the 32 areas in Scotland voted No ffs. 
The 'will of the people' also includes Unionists and No voters who made up 55.3% of the last referendum vote, why are their opinions being ignored and disregarded are they not Scottish too and have a right to air their opinions?
I'd say that right now the split is very close to 50/50 yes and no and it isn't very democratic if neither side is not prepared to listen to the other.
 

Even better, said Unionists should absolutely be able to express their opinion on the matter in a free and fair plebiscite.

[Anonapersona]

1 hour ago, Snafu said:

Last time of counting it was 44.7% wanted yes and that was from an 84.6% turnout, do you really think there would be a complete turnaround if there was another referendum?

It might need those who voted no to change their minds.

There is a lot of Unionist and no vote support in Scotland than those who have a blinkered approach to Independence might believe. It's is complete denial of the previous referendum result that had the No vote at 55.3%. The Unionists are not a minority in Scotland and the UK Government are quite aware of this, 28 out of the 32 areas in Scotland voted No ffs. 

The 'will of the people' also includes Unionists and No voters who made up 55.3% of the last referendum vote, why are their opinions being ignored and disregarded are they not Scottish too and have a right to air their opinions?

I'd say that right now the split is very close to 50/50 yes and no and it isn't very democratic if neither side is not prepared to listen to the other.

 

In 2020 they are, and I doubt that will change as time goes on. Westminster is far too London centric to stop the momentum.

[D Angelo Barksdale]

16 minutes ago, MixuFruit said:

If I did not want independence I would simply get enough votes to form a government on that issue.

In much the same way, 'there's no appetite for a 2nd referendum' can easily be resolved by having a referendum and looking at the turnout afterwards.

[Aufc]

I think the issue is that the SG have been very vague on a number of issues. I can't believe they have never came out and rubbished the whole GERS figures. I don't know if it is because they were happy to use them when the oil revenue was a lot higher and now can't be seen to go against this earlier stance. It just leads to unionists spitting out the line "what about the £x amount of deficit?" (as seen earlier in this topic). GERS shows taxed paid on income in Scotland but it shows spend for Scotland, even if spent in England.

It also shows the net fiscal balances of Scotland and the UK as a whole since 1990. Looking at the year 2018-2019, the net fiscal balance of the UK was -£23,533m of which -£12,630 was attributable to Scotland. Scotland accounts for 8.2% of the UK population. So GERS is essentially saying Scotland, with its 8.2% of UK population, is responsible for over 50% of the UK deficit at that time. It is total bullshit but they never seem to acknowledge this. 

They also need to be clearer on currency. As far as i can see, they have not mentioned their own currency and seem to want to keep the pound until they decide. Why would they want to leave the union but remain in a currency union? It they remain in a currency union then they wouldnt be able to control their own interest rates, would not have any control of any crisis hitting it and wouldnt be able to integrate monetary and fiscal policies. 

[paul wright scores]

1 hour ago, Aufc said:

They also need to be clearer on currency. As far as i can see, they have not mentioned their own currency and seem to want to keep the pound until they decide. Why would they want to leave the union but remain in a currency union? It they remain in a currency union then they wouldnt be able to control their own interest rates, would not have any control of any crisis hitting it and wouldnt be able to integrate monetary and fiscal policies. 

They would also not have their own Central Bank/Lender of Last Resort. 

[John Lambies Doos]

I'd actually be very happy if Scotland joined the Euro

[Aufc]

They would also not have their own Central Bank/Lender of Last Resort. 

Aye that is a given is we dont have our own currency.

Until they become clearer on items like this then the unionists will always have an argument.

[TheScarf]

17 minutes ago, John Lambies Doos said:

I'd actually be very happy if Scotland joined the Euro

Same.  An independent Scotland as a member of the EU using the Euro as our currency would be the ultimate GIRFUY to the racist, insular Tories.

Edited December 2, 2020 by TheScarf

[Aufc]

I can appreciate why they haven't attacked GERS, as they did indeed praise it when it was telling a positive story in the late 2000s and early 2010s. There are good reasons to offer a critique on the process but the general public don't have the economic knowledge to trust what they're being told. It's a place for economists to advise the government and the government to make policy but I don't think there are many votes in it. I as a committed independence supporter will vote for independence regardless of what GERS says, just as a committed unionist would vote no regardless. It's possibly a thing to focus your messaging on interactions with Edinburgh's financial services sector rather than getting into the nitty gritty on TV when most people will just zone out.
They can't launch a new currency on day 1 because they won't have sufficient cash reserves to convert into this currency in order to collateralise a central bank. They've judged Sterlingisation (not currency union this time) as the least worst interim position but no option is without problems. Whether we ultimately join the EU and eurozone or not we will at some point need to have our own currency, it just takes time to set up the things we need to make that credible to bond buyers etc.

You are right that there are parties on both sides that will vote yes or no either way. However, there will be a large undecided and if the GERS figures keep getting shouted about without defence then that could ultimately swing it. You know that unionists and the government will use the figures.

I think my point was that i dont think ive seen the SG lay out future plans for their own currency?

[harry94]

1 minute ago, MixuFruit said:

I can appreciate why they haven't attacked GERS, as they did indeed praise it when it was telling a positive story in the late 2000s and early 2010s. There are good reasons to offer a critique on the process but the general public don't have the economic knowledge to trust what they're being told. It's a place for economists to advise the government and the government to make policy but I don't think there are many votes in it. I as a committed independence supporter will vote for independence regardless of what GERS says, just as a committed unionist would do the same thing. It's possibly a thing to focus your messaging on interactions with Edinburgh's financial services sector rather than getting into the nitty gritty on TV when most people will just zone out.

They can't launch a new currency on day 1 because they won't have sufficient cash reserves to convert into this currency in order to collateralise a central bank. They've judged Sterlingisation (not currency union this time) as the least worst interim position but no option is without problems. Whether we ultimately join the EU and eurozone or not we will at some point need to have our own currency, it just takes time to set up the things we need to make that credible to bond buyers etc.

Re the establishment of a new currency, how much cash reserves are we actually talking about?

I know Richard Murphy isn't a specialist in macroeconomic policy but his interpretation was that in the post indy negotiations, Holyrood would obtain a proportion of the UK Gov and Bank of England's reserves and that would just be siphoned easily into the new currency whilst it is pegged to the UK pound in the early years with only a very brief sterlingisation interim period (i.e. not the years that the growth commission stated).

[D Angelo Barksdale]

Is anyone really that interested in GERS outside of nerds and weirdo dog food salesmen ?

The Yes side really don't need to get bogged down and get on the defensive about it. The public absolutely do not want detailed explanations of why this part is good and this part isn't, or why this figure needs caveats.