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When will indyref2 happen?


Colkitto

Indyref2  

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12 hours ago, MixuFruit said:

Looked this up as it sounded fantastical and it is, they get about 50 grand a year. 

MPs should obviously get the national average pay rise for a public sector worker on that kind of salary. 

Sorry, I was taking the piss out of that argument and chose 10x and PNG at random.

I also like the concept that MPs harm their careers by going into politics, which normally comes up too.

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20 minutes ago, John Lambies Doos said:

You're not taking the inevitable very well are you. Here's a little help

https://grief.com/the-five-stages-of-grief/
 

Course it was inevitable back in 2014 too. 

Covid SNP MP story still in the news. Sturgeon and her memory, hospitality sector not just shutting up,  it really hasn't been the best of weeks for the SNP and therefore Indy fans, as you'd imagine the closer and closer we get to an actual election the theoretical support will go out the window as the reality sets in and the hopeless SNP mps have to actually try and campaign off of the poor covid handling whilst also trying to sell Indy and avoid discussing domestic issues. I'd be surprised if they mustered up enough for a majority with or without the Greens and UK never going to allow Indy vote without one. Can you imagine any sensible non hive minded person after this year we've had to be swayed to leaving the UK with Covid and Brexit as a backdrop. There is no chance in hell that the middle ground voters care at all so the SNP is going to have a hard job at placating the cyber nat crazies who want Indy immediately whilst also trying to balance their manifesto on domestic agenda... I'd imagine Sturgeon will resign and someone else who isn't as good of a political operator will take the place..

I fear this place will take the hit the hardest. 

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3 minutes ago, Stormzy said:

Course it was inevitable back in 2014 too. 

Covid SNP MP story still in the news. Sturgeon and her memory, hospitality sector not just shutting up,  it really hasn't been the best of weeks for the SNP and therefore Indy fans, as you'd imagine the closer and closer we get to an actual election the theoretical support will go out the window as the reality sets in and the hopeless SNP mps have to actually try and campaign off of the poor covid handling whilst also trying to sell Indy and avoid discussing domestic issues. I'd be surprised if they mustered up enough for a majority with or without the Greens and UK never going to allow Indy vote without one. Can you imagine any sensible non hive minded person after this year we've had to be swayed to leaving the UK with Covid and Brexit as a backdrop. There is no chance in hell that the middle ground voters care at all so the SNP is going to have a hard job at placating the cyber nat crazies who want Indy immediately whilst also trying to balance their manifesto on domestic agenda... I'd imagine Sturgeon will resign and someone else who isn't as good of a political operator will take the place..

I fear this place will take the hit the hardest. 

Polls = barely worth the effort, not accurate.

Internet unionists day dream opinion = definitely going to happen.

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30 minutes ago, Gordon EF said:

Polls = barely worth the effort, not accurate.

Internet unionists day dream opinion = definitely going to happen.

Nah nah, I'm just stating what I think may happen as a possible/probable outcome, I'm not stating this is a definite outcome. 

What do you think the next election will be based on and what is your opinion on the outcome? 

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13 minutes ago, Stormzy said:

Nah nah, I'm just stating what I think may happen as a possible/probable outcome, I'm not stating this is a definite outcome. 

What do you think the next election will be based on and what is your opinion on the outcome? 

I think the two of us are both likely to have our opinions on what will happen swayed by what we want to happen.

The SNP are going to win the election. The real questions are whether they can get an outright majority and whether independence supporting parties can get an outright majority through the SNP + Greens.

I suspect the SNP will not get an outright majority but win very comfortably and SNP + Greens will have a majority together.

My suspicion is that so far, coronavirus is probably a small positive or largely neutral for the SNP. Nicola Sturgeon's approval rating jumped largely due to a favourable comparison with the Conservative government at WM and the general feeling that none of the opposition parties would have handled it any better or that they'd have handled it worse. I'm sceptical about the effect of the "How dare wee Nippy shut the pub brigade". I suspect the vast majority have never voted SNP in their lives and never intend to.

I think SNP opponents vastly over-estimate the effect of the Alex Salmond issue. The guy hasn't been a major figure in the SNP for years and was found not guilty. Again, it's really just a hot button issue for people who hate the SNP and would never vote for them anyway.

You might be highly sceptical of polls and, of course they are not 100% accurate and are liable to change over the months until the election but the past few months don't seem to have dented the SNP or independence's numbers which does suggest that none of the issues you've mentioned has people planning to switch their vote in significant enough numbers.

I think the SNP will win largely behind a general growth in support for independence and the complete lack of a credible alternative opposition.

Edited by Gordon EF
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12 minutes ago, Gordon EF said:

I think the two of us are both likely to have our opinions on what will happen swayed by what we want to happen.

The SNP are going to win the election. The real questions are whether they can get an outright majority and whether independence supporting parties can get an outright majority through the SNP + Greens.

I suspect the SNP will not get an outright majority but win very comfortably and SNP + Greens will have a majority together.

My suspicion is that so far, coronavirus is probably a small positive or largely neutral for the SNP. Nicola Sturgeon's approval rating jumped largely due to a favourable comparison with the Conservative government at WM and the general feeling that none of the opposition parties would have handled it any better or that they'd have handled it worse. I'm sceptical about the effect of the "How dare wee Nippy shut the pub brigade". I suspect the vast majority have never voted SNP in their lives and never intend to.

I think SNP opponents vastly over-estimate the effect of the Alex Salmond issue. The guy hasn't been a major figure in the SNP for years and was found not guilty. Again, it's really just a hot button issue for people who hate the SNP and would never vote for them anyway.

You might be highly sceptical of polls and, of course they are not 100% accurate and are liable to change over the months until the election but the past few months don't seem to have dented the SNP or independence's numbers which does suggest that none of the issues you've mentioned has people planning to switch their vote in significant enough numbers.

I think the SNP will win largely behind a general growth in support for independence and the complete lack of a credible alternative opposition.

Fair enough. I think that if this was a general election the SNP may have done well over covid but due to the fact they will be getting held to account fully rather than being compared to Westminster then it will be a bigger issue for them than you may think, could be wrong of course. Also I think without covid then the SNP would do well in a regular election but they're going to have to be very clear that this is the one that will decide if we have another referendum or not and I believe that when this happens the election will obviously just boil down to a rerun of the referendum with a new area of doubt and fear - covid. 

We have a long way to go though I'm sure lots will change before the elections. 

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I wonder how the 'mandate' is framed going into next year's election and whether it's only an SNP majority or a pro-independence majority which qualifies. I wonder how each party is going to frame it. I'd imagine the SNP won't want to concede to the latter because it might lose them some votes to the Greens from leftier indy supporters but it's also far riskier with the weird system we have to bank on an SNP majority. 

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2 hours ago, Bairnardo said:

FURIOUS MELTDOWN IN CAR CRASH INTERVIEW.....

They must have linked the wrong interview tbf, but f**k me, this is some shambolic journalism. Even for that shitrag

https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1346376/SNP-Nicola-Sturgeon-news-Sophy-Ridge-Sky-News-Alex-Salmond-latest-vn

Too lazy to write their own headlines these days so they leave it some no mark on twitter.

Quote

 

Viewers tweeted that the interview showed "what Nicola Sturgeon is really like".

One user said: "Ms Sturgeon all over the place on #Ridge. It would be refreshing if she actually answered the question."

Another remarked: "Sophy Ridge has got Sturgeon flustered about covering up for Alec Salmond's behaviour."

Others described the interview as a "car-crash" and claimed Ms Sturgeon was "all over the place".

 

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4 hours ago, Alan Stubbs said:

I’d be surprised if I don’t win the lottery next week and wake up tomorrow with a 10 inch banger. 

Why would you bother buying a lotto ticket if the latter happened?

 

Edited by Lurkst
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2 hours ago, MixuFruit said:

Did that Scott Arthur guy not have a youtube channel just of clips of the SNP saying stuff like 'we should improve society somewhat' and every single one was labelled CAR CRASH - TRAIN WRECK - BIN FIRE etc.

He did this...

https://www.edinburghnews.scotsman.com/news/politics/labour-councillor-escapes-disciplinary-action-over-humza-yousaf-tweet-237400

 

Edited by Sunrise
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