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When will indyref2 happen?


Colkitto

Indyref2  

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I once upon a time made a thread in this forum asking no voters to convince us all that voting no is the right thing to do. After all, the onus is on them to do so seeing as the sensible majority have voted for a party who’s primary goal is to deliver Scottish independence in the past few elections now.

Stormzy’s main reasons from what I’ve seen are:

- I’m content with the way things are and
- it was a once in a generation vote

These are piss poor reasons for arguing the case of the Union. It’s especially bad that this is all Stormzy came armed with when he entered this “cesspit” to tell everyone they were having a “circle jerk” (lol).

Lots of growing up to do for the wee man.

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I once upon a time made a thread in this forum asking no voters to convince us all that voting no is the right thing to do. After all, the onus is on them to do so seeing as the sensible majority have voted for a party who’s primary goal is to deliver Scottish independence in the past few election



When did the SNP get a majority of the vote?
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49 minutes ago, Lex said:

 

 


When did the SNP get a majority of the vote?

 

 

Why does anyone have the power to do anything at any level.  Are you arguing that no party has the right to do or change anything in the absence of a majority of the vote? 

If independence minded parties secure a majority of seats at the next election on a mandate which includes a referendum then said referendum should be legislated without further argument. If you disagree with this then every major decision by any UK govt over the last 80+ years has no mandate behind it. 

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Why does anyone have the power to do anything at any level.  Are you arguing that no party has the right to do or change anything in the absence of a majority of the vote? 

If independence minded parties secure a majority of seats at the next election on a mandate which includes a referendum then said referendum should be legislated without further argument. If you disagree with this then every major decision by any UK govt over the last 80+ years has no mandate behind it. 

 

I never said anything of the sort. The pro independence parties got 46% of the vote in Scotland in 2019. 45% for the SNP and 1% for the Greens.

 

The pro union parties (everyone else) got 54% of the vote. Of course due to a quirk of the FPTP system and the fact that the independence vote converges around one parry whereas the union vote is split three ways this means we sent 48 nationalist MP’s to Westminster and 11 union supporting MP’s.

 

The point is that to claim that a majority of Scottish people vote for independence supporting parties is patently false.

 

That 54-46% figure is scarily close to a certain poll in 2014...

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4 minutes ago, Lex said:

 


Sorry, when did pro independence parties get a majority of the vote?

 

When the Conservatives legislated for a referendum on EU exit, did they get a majority of the vote? They took 36.9% - are you saying they had no right to call that referendum? The referendum was determined by majority of the vote. In the event that the SNP continue to be elected into government in Scotland through a system where it is manifestly more difficult to get an overall majority, they have a cast iron case for delivering any or all elements of their manifesto and it is then for the people to judge them at the next election. 

Maybe you're suggesting every election should carry a +50% share of the vote constraint and that no policy should be enacted without that. 

If there is a pro independence outcome at the next election, there absolutely should be a referendum and then you can have your "majority" question answered  

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When the Conservatives legislated for a referendum on EU exit, did they get a majority of the vote? They took 36.9% - are you saying they had no right to call that referendum? The referendum was determined by majority of the vote. In the event that the SNP continue to be elected into government in Scotland through a system where it is manifestly more difficult to get an overall majority, they have a cast iron case for delivering any or all elements of their manifesto and it is then for the people to judge them at the next election. 
Maybe you're suggesting every election should carry a +50% share of the vote constraint and that no policy should be enacted without that. 
If there is a pro independence outcome at the next election, there absolutely should be a referendum and then you can have your "majority" question answered  


No I didn’t say that. I said that saying that pro independence parties in Scotland carry a majority of the vote is a patent falsehood.

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1 hour ago, Lex said:

When did the SNP get a majority of the vote?

 

 

Constituency voting in the Holyrood 2016 election

SNP - 1,059.898

Con -     501,844

Lab -      514,261

Lib -           13,172

The total Constituency votes for the Con/Lab/Lib parties was 1, 029.277

That is around 30,000 votes less than the SNP received.

And that is not counting the pro Independence Green Party constituency votes which obviously would push the SNP total higher. 

I would say that is a Majority for Independence.

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Constituency voting in the Holyrood 2016 election
SNP - 1,059.898
Con -     501,844
Lab -      514,261
Lib -           13,172
The total Constituency votes for the Con/Lab/Lib parties was 1, 029.277
That is around 30,000 votes less than the SNP received.
And that is not counting the pro Independence Green Party constituency votes which obviously would push the SNP total higher. 
I would say that is a Majority for Independence.



Epic levels of figure bending there, but fair play for spinning the figures.

I take it you therefore accept that in the two more recent elections (2017 and 2019) that the pro independence parties got a minority of the vote?
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I never said anything of the sort. The pro independence parties got 46% of the vote in Scotland in 2019. 45% for the SNP and 1% for the Greens.
 
The pro union parties (everyone else) got 54% of the vote. Of course due to a quirk of the FPTP system and the fact that the independence vote converges around one parry whereas the union vote is split three ways this means we sent 48 nationalist MP’s to Westminster and 11 union supporting MP’s.
 
The point is that to claim that a majority of Scottish people vote for independence supporting parties is patently false.
 
That 54-46% figure is scarily close to a certain poll in 2014...


 
I never said anything of the sort. The pro independence parties got 46% of the vote in Scotland in 2019. 45% for the SNP and 1% for the Greens.
 
The pro union parties (everyone else) got 54% of the vote. Of course due to a quirk of the FPTP system and the fact that the independence vote converges around one parry whereas the union vote is split three ways this means we sent 48 nationalist MP’s to Westminster and 11 union supporting MP’s.
 
The point is that to claim that a majority of Scottish people vote for independence supporting parties is patently false.
 
That 54-46% figure is scarily close to a certain poll in 2014...


Let's extrapolate this. If say Labour changes their opinion on independence and favoured it, then the next election the SNP, Labour and Greens get 55% of the vote, but only say 25/59 seats as the vote is split. The Tories and other unionists get 45% of the vote and the other 34 seats.
There's no hope in hell you'd then be saying there's a mandate for another indyref, you'd just move the goalposts and say the independence supporting parties don't have a majority of seats.
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what's the upshot of this observation?


If more Scottish people are voting for pro union parties than pro independence parties, what do you think this means?
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3 minutes ago, Lex said:

 


No I didn’t say that. I said that saying that pro independence parties in Scotland carry a majority of the vote is a patent falsehood.
 

 

This may be true but if they secure enough of the vote within the context of the framework of the Scottish Parliament, they have a right to enact their policies. The point then is what happens when those policies are enacted. You cannot say for example that all Labour voters favour remaining in the union come what may. That is patently not the case irrespective of the party's position on a policy level. When we have the referendum we'll see where the majority sits. 

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