When will indyref2 happen?

[Inanimate Carbon Rod]

6 years since folk believed the tories shite, anyone still actually think we are ‘better together’ ‘leading the uk’ and ‘protecting our EU membership’? Wonder what drivel they will try next time. 

[Blootoon87]

 

Of course he was an army officer.

[Thistle_do_nicely]

4 hours ago, HTG said:

This "once in a generation" stuff has to be given short shrift. Every time it's used, the response should be "I'd rather be dead in a ditch". Alternatively, if 7 years is good enough for something as contentious as the GFA, it's good enough for little old non violent Scotland. 

Yep. The thing is that if you tease it out to alternatives it's pretty clear that just saying "the last vote was Once In A Generation, here's an out of context Alex Salmond quote that proves it" is a pish excuse.

What if Cameron had said that it wasn't once in a generation and Scotland could still have a future referendum if they elected a pro independence majority at Holyrood? Or taking it to an extreme, that Scotland could hold a referendum once every calendar year if it wanted?

The main thrust being that it'd be just one opinion on it. Consistent polling + election results are a bit better to gauge it than citing an individual even if they're a Prime/First Minister.

There's also maybe a point to be made that whether Scotland should have a referendum is a significantly different question to whether it should be independent or not. Ironically if they'd held an indyref pre Covid Yes wouldn't have had the same polling numbers it's been getting recently, I don't think, so you could even take a Unionist position that holding an indyref before Brexit starts to bite would give No a better chance of winning.

Edited September 18, 2020 by Thistle_do_nicely

[Sherrif John Bunnell]

57 minutes ago, MixuFruit said:

the lad's clearly self written wikipedia is something: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jamie_Blackett_(writer)

 

That is self-loathing Jock bingo.

[Ivo den Bieman]

 

^^ Jamie Blackett

Edited September 18, 2020 by Ivo den Bieman

[Kejan]

2 hours ago, Sherrif John Bunnell said:

That is self-loathing Jock bingo.

Is he even a Jock? White settler more like.

[speckled tangerine]

2 hours ago, Ivo den Bieman said:

 

^^ Jamie Blackett

If that c**t is not already dead I sincerely hope he lasts long enough to see the butcher's apron come down the flagpole at Edinburgh castle that final time.

And then, as he croaks his last a thoroughly broken man, he realises that "Jesus Christ", "God" and all that pish is a human construct. No white light. Just nothing. 

 

[Inanimate Carbon Rod]

1 hour ago, Stinky Bone said:

500 million for education apparently. To councils. 

Aye if anyone believes that i’ve got some magic beans for them to buy 

[BFTD]

6 hours ago, Thistle_do_nicely said:

What if Cameron had said that it wasn't once in a generation and Scotland could still have a future referendum if they elected a pro independence majority at Holyrood?

What indeed.

[Stellaboz]

Why would COVID stop an election? That's fucking nonsense, we had one here last week. Limited people in voting room at one time, queue with spacing its not difficult.

[Boo Khaki]

1 hour ago, MixuFruit said:

They're worries of course but all of these things do nothing but drive more votes to the SNP. Since the early days of the Scottish enlightenment there have been concerted efforts to say Scotland's just another bit of Britain. If that's failed to work for a few hundred years, I don't think a bit of goalpost moving now will do the trick.

What actually happens next? I don't know. But it's inevitable.

Pretty much how I'm feeling about things right now.

I get the frustration at the Westminster chicanery, still having to go cap-in-hand begging for the right to hold a binding referendum, the idiocy infesting Downing street etc, all of it.

I take solace in looking at the fact that the weight of feeling is only going one way, it has been for a long time, and there's no sign that Westminster, Downing Street, or any of the pro-union parties and personalities has any sort of cogent plan for arresting the slide. On the contrary, they seem to believe that becoming even more militant and digging their heels in further is somehow the way regain the support of people who have been repelled precisely because of their stance.

It's unionist and Britnat intransigence that, for me anyway, makes me believe that independence is utterly inevitable. Specifics about exactly how and when it comes about don't really concern me. I have full faith in the likes of Johnson, Cummings, Ross etc to continue to make it happen, and I'm patient enough to accept that it might not happen as quickly as I'd once hoped.

It dismays me that Scotland has had to suffer and be diminished by the actions of the Brexiteers and piss-poor governance from Tory clowns, but I do think there's a truth in the fact that the likes of Brexit and Tory majorities have actually helped the Independence cause. I think it's eventually going to be a Berlin wall type scenario, in that it might be a long time coming, but when the endgame arrives it'll all happen rather suddenly and quickly.

[speckled tangerine]

43 minutes ago, Boo Khaki said:

Pretty much how I'm feeling about things right now.

I get the frustration at the Westminster chicanery, still having to go cap-in-hand begging for the right to hold a binding referendum, the idiocy infesting Downing street etc, all of it.

I take solace in looking at the fact that the weight of feeling is only going one way, it has been for a long time, and there's no sign that Westminster, Downing Street, or any of the pro-union parties and personalities has any sort of cogent plan for arresting the slide. On the contrary, they seem to believe that becoming even more militant and digging their heels in further is somehow the way regain the support of people who have been repelled precisely because of their stance.

It's unionist and Britnat intransigence that, for me anyway, makes me believe that independence is utterly inevitable. Specifics about exactly how and when it comes about don't really concern me. I have full faith in the likes of Johnson, Cummings, Ross etc to continue to make it happen, and I'm patient enough to accept that it might not happen as quickly as I'd once hoped.

It dismays me that Scotland has had to suffer and be diminished by the actions of the Brexiteers and piss-poor governance from Tory clowns, but I do think there's a truth in the fact that the likes of Brexit and Tory majorities have actually helped the Independence cause. I think it's eventually going to be a Berlin wall type scenario, in that it might be a long time coming, but when the endgame arrives it'll all happen rather suddenly and quickly.

I remember being on a School exchange to West Germany in October 1989. We'd been to the East German border a couple of days before and experienced the NVA looking at us through binoculars from watch towers on their side and thinking how bizarre it all was.

It was the 40th anniversary of the DDR and my exchange partner's mum was watching the East German telly (broadcast in black & white- in 1989!) With Gorbachev in Berlin meeting Honecker for the "celebrations". Stage managed bullshit by the party. The Tagesschau on West German telly was reporting on unrest in Leipzig, unreported by the east (unsurprisingly). It was clear the game was up for that system at that time. The public wanted change.

"I give the regime two years. Gorby will force change on the east" she said. 

A month later the Phillipsthal border we visited was opened, the guys with guns were standing around watching everybody pass through and then reunification happened the following year. It happened in the blink of an eye so I absolutely agree- circumstances, particularly political or economic circumstances can be the catalyst for ridiculously crazy seismic changes. That trip was a first hand view on history. As well as a pile of drinking as the legal age was 16 in West Germany!

[John Lambies Doos]

Agree with the above.
It was the same tired old stuff. I imagine the BBC getting increasingly desperate to get people to come on telly and defend the Union in an interesting, novel way.
"Oh ffs, Sebeastian. It's nearly 9pm and we've got nothing! Suppose we better phone Rifkind. Tell him theres a fee and a car to pick him up." 

It makes no difference. Vast majority of Scots under 40 are unable to make any connection with this Tory Turd. As for the rest they have pretty much made their mind up on him.

[Boo Khaki]

1 hour ago, speckled tangerine said:

circumstances, particularly political or economic circumstances can be the catalyst for ridiculously crazy seismic changes

Exactly my view.

I often think to myself about how a good number of Soviet and Eastern Bloc citizens must have felt in the early and mid-80's. Their system had been in place for nearly 70 years, so it must have been difficult to conceive of a time where it had been swept away and consigned to history. 80's USSR and East Germany must have been a pretty grim and dispiriting place for a lot of people, but I doubt many of them would have predicted just how quickly it would all fall apart.

I think that where we are  right now, with the question over how exactly Scotland goes about attaining a second referendum, suggests that things are looking pretty bleak with regards to Independence, but if you look at the fall of Communism as an example, it was exactly at a point in time where there was economic turmoil, a huge degree of public dissatisfaction, and politicians who were rendered impotent and facing resistance from diametrically opposed factions that it all came crashing down. I think we're at a 'cork in a bottle' stage similar to 80's DDR and Soviet Union. It's not a pleasant analogy, but I look at it in terms along the lines of 'a bit constipated right at this second, but when things do move..." 

Edited September 18, 2020 by Boo Khaki

[Academically Deficient]

1 hour ago, John Lambies Doos said:

13 hours ago, Academically Deficient said:

Agree with the above.
It was the same tired old stuff. I imagine the BBC getting increasingly desperate to get people to come on telly and defend the Union in an interesting, novel way.
"Oh ffs, Sebeastian. It's nearly 9pm and we've got nothing! Suppose we better phone Rifkind. Tell him theres a fee and a car to pick him up." 

It makes no difference. Vast majority of Scots under 40 are unable to make any connection with this Tory Turd. As for the rest they have pretty much made their mind up on him.

I'm with you.  It's like the game is up if they're resorting to Rifkind. As if anybody is going to hear him and change their mind on indy. Well, maybe from no to yes based on that pisspoor performance

[GordonS]

3 hours ago, Academically Deficient said:

I'm with you.  It's like the game is up if they're resorting to Rifkind. As if anybody is going to hear him and change their mind on indy. Well, maybe from no to yes based on that pisspoor performance

Your reminder that the UKIP candidate in the successor to Rifkind's old constituency in 2001 was a guy called - seriously - Billy Boys.

Just a factoid I like to share.

ETA - UKIP's candidate at the previous election in 2001 there was a certain Bill McMurdo. And at the election before that, in 1997, it was this guy:

 

Edited September 19, 2020 by GordonS

[Academically Deficient]

4 hours ago, GordonS said:

Your reminder that the UKIP candidate in the successor to Rifkind's old constituency in 2001 was a guy called - seriously - Billy Boys.

Just a factoid I like to share.

ETA - UKIP's candidate at the previous election in 2001 there was a certain Bill McMurdo. And at the election before that, in 1997, it was this guy:

 

Wow!

If that's the best they've got they're in a bad way.

Always comes back to the f****** Empire doesn't it? What have they got to offer Scotland in the present and future though? Hee haw, and therein lies their major difficulty. 

Picking up on posters above, it's reminiscent of those old Soviet guys you see sometimes on tv news coverage of Russia, medals everywhere. But auld yin, your country is run by gangsters in the here and now and it's going down the pan.

[SandyCromarty]

On 17/09/2020 at 17:44, Bairnardo said:

I do. I had probably better not plaster it over the internet though like I say. 

I dont think Ineos are involved in the Glendronach decision although that may be part of it. There are other, bigger issues with the Glendronach field 

So finally I got some answers.

The obvious is, due to the recent downturn in the oil price we saw a year ago and now with demand dropping due to Covid all the Majors have entered into a financial prudence phase which obviously has hit Total, all are exercising deep cuts and redundancies, there are at least 16 rigs stacked in Invergordon and many many more worldwide.

There has been a slight upturn in drilling, for instance all Stena rigs are back to work but the heady days of $500,000 -$600,000 dayrates are gone and the Icemax is on a dayrate of $170,000 which just manages to reduce losses.

Total have been hit harder than most, as you know the French were instrumental in returning The Ayatollah Khomenei to Iran, the reward was that Total was allowed massive investment and development in Iran's oil production, they were the main player in that shithole Kharg Island and run all ops there, so Total then invested $4.8 Billion in Iran's South Pars Natural Gas Field, the largest in the world, and then the US imposed massive sanctions on Iran promising large penalties on any Companies that did business with Iran, so with that Total had to pull out in 2018, so you can imagine the knock on financial effect that had throughout the company.

Bear in mind that Total's outlay on their Shetland plant has been in the region of £4 Billion and now a partner Ineos is delaying further investment you get the picture.

Re the WOS I have more Total  development info which I will PM you.  

[SandyCromarty]

21 hours ago, MixuFruit said:

the lad's clearly self written wikipedia is something: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jamie_Blackett_(writer)

 

No doubt he had a perverse reaction,(hard on possibly?), when he was physically beaten by Eton's Headmaster.

It's the sort of thing that has produced countless Prime Ministers!

Bend Over Boris.

[SandyCromarty]

 

14 hours ago, Stinky Bone said:

I fear this happens next.  Internal Market Bill becomes law, Scottish law is shat on again and nobody does anything.  

How about this for a future?  We adopt the manifesto for Independence that I previously spoke of and take it from there.  Grab Independence by the balls and just go for it. Honestly lets go. 

Time is running out.  I dont think there will be a Scottish parliament election in 2021, either covid or the Internal Market Bill will see to that.  

I am being serious here, we have to move now or it will be too late. 

I don't dislike that idea but we would lose a lot of credibility worldwide, especially from our European numbers who we need to keep in our good books with our hopes of EU membership.

Have faith in the democratic process which will see us a an Independent nation again.