When will indyref2 happen?

[NotThePars]

This is how I see it playing out:

SNP: "Well I'd like to see Boris Johnson ignore THIS mandate"

*Boris completely ignores or denies the mandate*

SNP: "Ah, well, nevertheless."

[G-MAN]

Why can’t the SNP wait until they are picking up 60% of the vote before forcing indyref2. They still stuck at 45%. 

Voters of other parties vote for Independence.

16-17 year olds are not polled, nor can vote in a GE, but can in a Referendum.

EU nationals can vote in a referendum (and are not polled)

Support for Independence in my humble opinion is not 45% at the moment.

[Comrie]

I think it'll hover around 50% for a while, until undecided voters see how Brexit turns out. If it goes well for Johnson (not likely) it'll dip, if it goes pear shaped it'll gradually increase.

[johnnydun]

22 minutes ago, HeartsOfficialMoaner said:

Why can’t the SNP wait until they are picking up 60% of the vote before forcing indyref2. They still stuck at 45%. 

Because it's not just about the SNP, 

Take my earlier figures...

3 hours ago, johnnydun said:

If we held an indy ref vote on yesterdays numbers, going by the party percentage of who voted Yes & No in 2014,

Con 5% Yes

SNP 85% Yes

Lib dem 39% Yes

Labour 37% Yes

Yes would win by 29,005 votes.

 

Edit because I typed "voted" twice.

2.7m voted in Scotland yesterday. This alone would have Yes at roughly 51%.

Then add the 16 + 17 year olds and EU citizens....

2 hours ago, jakedee said:

Would these figures include 16-17 yr olds and EU citizens ?

Roughly 71,000 under 18's voted Yes last time out and although this would be a new group of under 18's I would expect the outcome to be the same.

So that would put Yes roughly in the lead by 100,000 votes.

Not to mention the EU nationals.

This is all rough but I don't think its a million miles away from 60% right now.

 

[sergie's no1 fan]

I don’t have an answer to that. I don’t think anybody does.

Sturgeon is expecting him to knock it back but going by this she has a plan so it can't be challenged legally. Sounds very promising.

[lichtgilphead]

1 hour ago, Mark Connolly said:

 

Well said @Ad Lib

[Replays]

BritNat trolls on Twitter both infuriating and hilarious in equal measure at the moment.

[John Lambies Doos]

Of course Thatcher used to say that if SNP ever won a majority of Scottish seats in a GE then UDI would be acceptable. Of course Thatcher thought that this was impossible

[Crùbag]

The argument for Scottish independence contained in two paragraphs of Bernard Ponsonby's report here.

https://stv.tv/news/politics/1443128-ponsonby-scotland-s-new-doomsday-scenario-post-election/

Quote

 

Election 2019 in Scotland represents a sort of Doomsday Chapter 2. Scotland decisively votes for the SNP and yet only the Conservative UK mandate would appear to count for anything.

The SNP's landslide in Scotland is psephologically more impressive than Boris Johnson's in the UK. And yet in the impending clash of the mandates over the two great constitutional issues of our time, only one is likely to prevail.

 

 

[Only an observer]

31 minutes ago, John Lambies Doos said:

Of course Thatcher used to say that if SNP ever won a majority of Scottish seats in a GE then UDI would be acceptable. Of course Thatcher thought that this was impossible

"Scotland does not need a referendum on independence. She just needs to send a majority of nationalist MPs to Westminster to have a mandate for independence "

 

 

Edited December 13, 2019 by Only an observer
Missed out picture

[DeeTillEhDeh]

Unionist logic.

 

43% of the vote and 58% of the seats is a mandate to govern the UK.

 

But 46% of the vote and 80% of the seats in Scotland is not a mandate for the democratically elected Scottish Parliament to decide if it wants IndyRef2.

 

 

 

 

[johnnydun]

When do we riot?

[D Angelo Barksdale]

Actually, Labour stated they would agree to a 2nd referendum after Brexit was dealt with.

Therefore 63% of the Scots who voted wanted a 2nd referendum in the next parliamentary term.

[sergie's no1 fan]

Why can’t the SNP wait until they are picking up 60% of the vote before forcing indyref2. They still stuck at 45%. 

Seen a poll recently that showed nearly 50% of Scottish Labour voters/supporters support indy too.

It is going to be a landslide.

[Guest Bob Mahelp]

Once Johnson and his band of right-wing extremists finish patting themselves on the back, one of the things they'll turn to will be the powers of the Scottish parliament. 

And I'll guarantee now, with the collusion of the Scottish Tories, they'll take every step they can to neuter and minimise Holyrood.

Remember, power devolved is power retained. Holyrood is only there at the whim of Westminster.

[Frank Grimes]

1 hour ago, sergie's no1 fan said:

Seen a poll recently that showed nearly 50% of Scottish Labour voters/supporters support indy too.

It is going to be a landslide.

Not sure about landslide but by the time you add 16 year olds and EU Nationals it will be enough to get it over the line 

And Unionists know this

Which is why they will pull every trick in the book to stop it happening 

[Crùbag]

Murdo Fraser fairly getting his arse handed to him by Gordon Brewer this morning who quoted his own words back to him.

'You said a vote for the Tories was an anti-Indyref one. You lost'

[Crùbag]

36 minutes ago, Bob Mahelp said:

Once Johnson and his band of right-wing extremists finish patting themselves on the back, one of the things they'll turn to will be the powers of the Scottish parliament. 

And I'll guarantee now, with the collusion of the Scottish Tories, they'll take every step they can to neuter and minimise Holyrood.

Remember, power devolved is power retained. Holyrood is only there at the whim of Westminster.

Plans are afoot already - it's the British Way.  Hopefully they're not stupid enough to actually go ahead with it. It'll be mayhem.

 

[Ross.]

12 minutes ago, Frank Grimes said:

Not sure about landslide but by the time you add 16 year olds and EU Nationals it will be enough to get it over the line 

And Unionists know this

Which is why they will pull every trick in the book to stop it happening 

Seen a few of them on twitter banging on about “55% of the votes were for unionist parties”. None of them have answered me when asked why they don’t just call a referendum and kill the issue for 20 years, given their confidence on the issue.

[mizfit]

Seen a few rumours on Twitter this morning that Johnson is planning on repealing the Scotland Act.