When will indyref2 happen?

[renton]

10 minutes ago, tirso said:

as far as I'm aware the Scottish government has a team of statisticians who rationalise these figures.  I may be wrong though.  I'm not an expert in it.  I'm aware of Dunleavy's opinion and it has some value.  However, I think the statisticians really are trying to make the stats are accurate as possible.  They don't just compute per capita figures.  There's more thought put in as far as I'm aware.

Anyway, i'm not saying they are completely accurate but they're a reasonable ballpark unless you think the input data is politically motivated.  Maybe it is.  It's happened before.

But my main point was I 'm highly sceptical that a material amount of revenue from this Energy transfer has not been factored in.  I'm not saying it has.  I'm just not convinced the SNP would let that slide.

I don't doubt the intent of the statisticians but as Murphy has pointed out, working out accurately the economic activity in Scotland is extremely hard unless we actually apply some kind of internal customs and revenue service. Most UK based companies don't break their books down by economic activity per region either so it's not like we can rely on any voluntary figures from the private sector. 

GERS originated with the Tory part explicitly as a means of inflating the role of the UK government in keeping Scotland afloat. There have been changes to the methodology over time but the overall bias still exists.

[Tibbermoresaint]

2 minutes ago, renton said:

Presumably the question was based on whether the GERS methodology could be usefully amended to include additional revenue streams, including the Electrical Energy transfer as noted above. A further presumption on my part is that a useful amendment of GERS would require the accurate measurement of those revenue streams. I just assumed the question wasn't just "can you amend an Excel spreadsheet" and if was then fair fucks, we can just stick a column in for magical Unicron poop valued at £100 Billion and be done with it.

*yawn*

Perhaps @tirso can advise whether he was asking the question that appeared on my screen or whether he was asking a question that currently only appears to exist in your head.

[git-intae-thum]

1 hour ago, tirso said:

Not saying you're wrong but surely the Scottish Government civil servants would include appropriate revenue for these streams.

They do it for oil so why wouldn't they do it for Energy?

I'm not saying GERS is necessarily accurate but its' the figures produced now by the pro-independence government.  It's what they based the white paper on.  I'm sceptical such a material amount wouldn't be factored in.

Accurate records for all the differing strands of Scottish revenue do not exist. Many are based on survey return, (with no legal compulsion) or where literally no figures exist GERS make an assumption.

That assumption is often a population share percentage of overall revenue raised at UK level. If as suspected Scotland has a large BoP surplus with the rUK, it means that our tax take cannot be right.

If you take VAT as an example GERS accounts for household VAT which accounts for ~70% of total. However it has no figures for the remaining 30% from the other VAT sectors and merely makes an estimate. 

Scotland's 2018 VAT income is estimated at 10.1 billion. So that is at least 3 billion pounds that cannot properly accounted for.

It's scandalous really. Particularly as these dud figures are politicised and used as a stick to do Scotland down and promote the idea of subsidy.

Further as put forward by prof. Richard Murphy, GERS figures take no cognisance of the multiplier effect. That in itself is likely to cause a large hidden transferral of wealth to the South. Murphies taxresearch blog is a good read.

I have no doubt GERS accurately reports Scotland's spend. (even though a lot of that spend at UK level, would not be the choice of most folk in Scotland, and has little relevance to Scotland.)

However, you can only strongly suspect GERS really minimises Scotland's revenue.

Why does Scotgov use it? Because there is nothing else. From an ideal statistical gathering viewpoint, we should have a separate Scottish HMRC backed by a legislative requirement for the recording all transactions between the constituent nations of the UK. Also a Scottish ONS to properly evaluate the figures.

Ain't gonna happen. Westminster politicians would really disapprove as it would reveal too much.

[tirso]

14 minutes ago, Tibbermoresaint said:

*yawn*

Perhaps @tirso can advise whether he was asking the question that appeared on my screen or whether he was asking a question that currently only appears to exist in your head.

My question is basically why wouldn't the Scottish government add in an obvious material revenue stream like this Energy one?  They would be doing everything they could to add in an anomaly like this.  I doubt they would pass up the opportunity to rationalise a figure and amend in given the pressures they are under to show Scotland's revenue in a good light.

I suppose I just don't believe it hasn't been factored in to some extent.  If it hasn't and it's Billions and Billions why do they never talk about it?  My question came from the idea that this is missing money that hasn't been added in.  

Edited July 18, 2019 by tirso

[git-intae-thum]

8 minutes ago, tirso said:

My question is basically why wouldn't the Scottish government add in an obvious material revenue stream like this Energy one?  They would be doing everything they could to add in an anomaly like this.  I doubt they would pass up the opportunity to rationalise a figure and amend in given the pressures they are under to show Scotland's revenue in a good light.

Because the figures for a separated Scottish revenue raised by such like do not exist.  There is no mechanism used to record it. It's all lumped together with rUK and then apportioned proportionately based on population.

That happens with for example all non household VAT.

Edited July 18, 2019 by git-intae-thum

[renton]

7 minutes ago, tirso said:

My question is basically why wouldn't the Scottish government add in an obvious material revenue stream like this Energy one?  They would be doing everything they could to add in an anomaly like this.  I doubt they would pass up the opportunity to rationalise a figure and amend in given the pressures they are under to show Scotland's revenue in a good light.

I suppose I just don't believe it hasn't been factored in to some extent.  If it hasn't and it's Billions and Billions why do they never talk about it?  My question came from the idea that this is missing money that hasn't been added in.  

The answer to which is, as far as I can see from Murphy's blog and others is that it would be almost impossible to accurately report the number, or even guess at any number.

[Tibbermoresaint]

7 minutes ago, renton said:

The answer to which is, as far as I can see from Murphy's blog and others is that it would be almost impossible to accurately report the number, or even guess at any number.

 grow a spine FFS.

[renton]

1 minute ago, Tibbermoresaint said:

 grow a spine FFS.

Not sure what your point is.

[tirso]

17 minutes ago, git-intae-thum said:

Because the figures for a separated Scottish revenue raised by such like do not exist.  There is no mechanism used to record it. It's all lumped together with rUK and then apportioned proportionately based on population.

That happens with for example all non household VAT.

But the GERS website says the statisticians use methodologies for each individual revenue stream, including Energy.  I don't think they just compute a per capita share and that's it; especially for a known anomaly.  

[renton]

To recap:

A graph is put up showing an enormous transfer of electrical energy from Scotland to England. This is offered as proof that Scotland is richer than Unionist would have you believe.

Tirso, sceptical, enquires as to why that wouldn't already be factored in via the GERS analysis.

The answer as offered by myself and Git'Thum is that such revenue streams are effectively smeared over in GERS thanks to its reporting methods. This may or may nit be true for the topic of interest but is certainly a short coming observed in orther areas of GERS.

The obvious corrollary of that is why can't GERS be amended to show those revenues accurately. The answer being that no reporting mechanism exists and only a large expenditure in setting up a seperate Scottish HMRC, Stats agency and some kind of legislative requirement for the private sector to report would go some ways to rectifying that.

Not sure why that makes me spineless. 

The larger point is that GERS is in fact largely pointless in discussions regarding independence and best ignored. To base the white paper on it in 2014 was a mistake and creates a hostage or fortune down the line as every year since has shown.

 

Edited July 18, 2019 by renton

[Tibbermoresaint]

4 minutes ago, renton said:

The answer being that no reporting mechanism exists and only a large expenditure in setting up a seperate Scottish HMRC, Stats agency and some kind of legislative requirement for the private sector to report would go some ways to rectifying that.

Nope.

[renton]

3 minutes ago, Tibbermoresaint said:

Nope.

Alright, so what does need doing then?

[Tibbermoresaint]

2 minutes ago, MixuFixit said:

^ Has never worked with data.

I work with data every hour of every working day.

[AUFC90]

I work with data every hour of every working day.

^^^ Sales Assistant for Carphone Warehouse.

[Tibbermoresaint]

4 minutes ago, AUFC90 said:

1 hour ago, Tibbermoresaint said:

I work with data every hour of every working day.

^^^ Sales Assistant for Carphone Warehouse.

[strichener]

3 hours ago, renton said:

The answer to which is, as far as I can see from Murphy's blog and others is that it would be almost impossible to accurately report the number, or even guess at any number.

For energy that is just bollox.  We can accurately attribute energy produced in Scotland v consumed and exported.  National Grid have this information.

The bigger question would be - are energy subsidies accurately accounted for in GERS.  Scotland had a bigger share of renewable subsidies and therefore are these exports actually subsidised by UK taxpayers.

Edited July 18, 2019 by strichener

[tirso]

50 minutes ago, strichener said:

For energy that is just bollox.  We can accurately attribute energy produced in Scotland v consumed and exported.  National Grid have this information.

The bigger question would be - are energy subsidies accurately accounted for in GERS.  Scotland had a bigger share of renewable subsidies and therefore are these exports actually subsidised by UK taxpayers.

Have to say i'm even more sceptical of the idea Scotland is subsidised when it comes to Energy than the billions windfall cover-up, to be fair.  

Edited July 18, 2019 by tirso

[strichener]

3 minutes ago, tirso said:

Have to say i'm even more sceptical of the idea Scotland is subsidised when it comes to Energy than the billions windfall cover-up, to be fair.  

That isn't what I said though.  Renewable energy is unquestionably subsidised.  We produce more proportionally than other parts of the UK and therefore we are being subsidised in energy production by any verifiable measure.  It is just impossible for it to be otherwise.  The question that I was posing was if these subsidies are more than the value of the energy exported.  This I am not sure of.

[welshbairn]

We'll be quids in when they sort out a proper carbon tax then.

[Baxter Parp]

3 hours ago, strichener said:

For energy that is just bollox.  We can accurately attribute energy produced in Scotland v consumed and exported.  National Grid have this information.

The bigger question would be - are energy subsidies accurately accounted for in GERS.  Scotland had a bigger share of renewable subsidies and therefore are these exports actually subsidised by UK taxpayers.

The opposite.

"Locational charging means Scottish generators produce about 12% of UK generation but account for 40% of the transmission costs, or about £100 million per year more than generators in the South."

https://www.webarchive.org.uk/wayback/archive/20170107182006/http://www.gov.scot/Topics/Business-Industry/Energy/Infrastructure/TransmissionCharging