When will indyref2 happen?

[sparky88]

6 hours ago, HTG said:

It's blindingly obvious there won't be a hard border. 

The UK Govt threatened that last time round but the process of leaving the EU has shown that their threats were utterly empty. 

The UK has stated it will never enforce a hard border on Ireland. The chances of cutting off their noses to spite their faces when Scotland leaves are zero. 

Scotland isn't interested in a hard border either and has no issue with freedom of movement. 

So, if there is no appetite on either side, there won't be a hard border. It would only arise as a result of sheer spite and only a shower of colonialist wankers would carry that level of spite. The UK will be pragmatic when it cuts to the chase. And if it isn't, should Scotland just cower? If that's what being a nation of equals really means then it can get to f**k. 

I don't think there will be a hard border either, in the same way there won't be a hard border between rUK and R Ireland. 

But something will need to be sacrificed in order to achieve that. Having regulatory alignment with rUK, rather than the EU might be one (assuming the UK has left by then). 

[BawWatchin]

1 minute ago, strichener said:

Not much of a choice being presented here.  Either sound like JRM or Trump.

Interesting seeing the responses to my earlier post.  Apparently no deal Brexit = bad.  No deal independence with no debt = good.

Plenty of seriously deluded (and hypocritical) idiots on here.

There's a fundemental difference though. The EU doesn't need to offer the UK a better deal. The UK is pretty much at the mercy of the EU. If the UK comes crashing out without a deal and Scotland then chooses to leave the UK, England won't be in any position to screw us over. They will want to set up the best possible deal they can with us. That's not delusional, that's the crux of the matter.

[sparky88]

7 minutes ago, BawWatchin said:

There's a fundemental difference though. The EU doesn't need to offer the UK a better deal. The UK is pretty much at the mercy of the EU. If the UK comes crashing out without a deal and Scotland then chooses to leave the UK, England won't be in any position to screw us over. They will want to set up the best possible deal they can with us. That's not delusional, that's the crux of the matter.

If rUK leaves without a deal from the EU why would they negotiate an amazing deal with Scotland, which wants to be part of the EU that the rUK has just left?

[BawWatchin]

Just now, sparky88 said:

If rUK leaves without a deal from the EU why would they negotiate an amazing deal with Scotland, which wants to be part of the EU that the rUK has just left?

Because if they don't, then what does that leave them with?  A botched deal with the US which only benefits the US?

[sparky88]

8 minutes ago, BawWatchin said:

Because if they don't, then what does that leave them with?  A botched deal with the US which only benefits the US?

Assumes a lot about how negotiations will play out. I expect the UK will get some good and bad post EU deals. But the deals with big fish, EU China and US will be far worse than at present. I'm not sure that creates a desperation to negotiate a great trade deal with Scotland, to the extent rUK will just give us whatever we want.

And of course, it's a gamble. And all the evidence suggests Scottish voters don't want to vote Yes, if it  is seen as a gamble.

Edited June 23, 2019 by sparky88

[BawWatchin]

Just now, sparky88 said:

Assumes a lot about how negotiations will play out. I expect the UK will get some good and bad post EU deals. But the deals with big fish, EU China and US will be far worse than at present. I'm not sure that creates a desperation to negotiate a great trade deal with Scotland, to the extent rUK will just give us whatever we want.

Perhaps not. But they'll have to offer up something worthwhile, because they're going to find themselves in a position where they have no short distance suppliers and a Scotland that could simply walk away without any legal liability over the UK national debt figure. A position i'm sure they'll do just about anything to avoid.

[sparky88]

14 minutes ago, BawWatchin said:

Perhaps not. But they'll have to offer up something worthwhile, because they're going to find themselves in a position where they have no short distance suppliers and a Scotland that could simply walk away without any legal liability over the UK national debt figure. A position i'm sure they'll do just about anything to avoid.

Ultimately this is the Scottish independence equivalent of Farage's 'who will buy all the German cars and french wine' argument.

[BawWatchin]

1 minute ago, sparky88 said:

Ultimately this is the Scottish independence equivalent of Farage's 'who will buy all the German cars and french wine' argument.

It's really not.

Farage had zero basis for his claims. What i'm saying is fully backed up and justified.

[Savage Henry]

That's strange as you've given every indication that you were and are a right-on no voter that is aligned with the likes of Alex Cole-Hamilton and Christine Jardine. 
There never has and never will be a hard border on this island and any suggestion of such is for the birds and trolls.

Yet again, what the f**k are you on about?

[sparky88]

39 minutes ago, MixuFixit said:

It isn't trolling to suggest the pages of handwaving on this issue will be effective with undecided/soft no voters next time.

I am sure Sturgeon's recent trip to Brussels was to have quiet chats about reassuring noises from the EU when the time comes, which is the sensible approach.

Agreed. For me, the best outcome for the next referendum is a big majority either way. Yes can't win one unless they answer why the Irish border question and Scottish border question are different. It's maybe one of the only potential factor that can turn 2014 yes votes to no's.

[sophia]

7 minutes ago, sparky88 said:

Yes can't win one unless they answer why the Irish border question and Scottish border question are different. 

We always refer to Dundee as Dundee.

Nobody ever refers to it as Londondundee.

[NotThePars]

Debt is an entirely normal state of existence for a country as long as it has a central bank.

I’m banking (heh) on a Philip 2nd approach where we rely on Genoese bankers and go bankrupt every six years.

[sparky88]

57 minutes ago, Stinky Bone said:

No deal brexit will be bad for the uk as a whole, I am sure we can agree on that.  

As for no deal Scottish Independence, I can't see that happening.  As soon as we vote for Independence from ruk, there will be negotations to determine the value of assets that an Independent Scotland shall get and the proportion of uk debt that we get.  In these negotiations, the cost of decommissioning the nuclear subs must be taken into account, unless the ruk remove them.  I am sure Scotland will be in profit from day one, but if the opposite is true and we are in debt on day one, then I am certain it won't take us long to get back to a level playing field.  Other countries have managed, why can't we. 

 

 

With the exception of the nuclear subs bit, this might as well have been said by Liam Fox or David Davis prior to 2016.

[BawWatchin]

58 minutes ago, Stinky Bone said:

However, as we look at the prospect of a BJ prime minister, anything is possible now.  It wouldn't surprise me if the ruk placed the armed forces at the border and shot anyone wearing a kilt. 

Yep... including Scots with guns who are ashamed of their cultural heritage.

[Sigma]

They will have to get used to this.

[BawWatchin]

Seems like a well rounded chap.

[strichener]

12 hours ago, sparky88 said:

With the exception of the nuclear subs bit, this might as well have been said by Liam Fox or David Davis prior to 2016.

Simply replace nuclear with North sea.  Both of which will be similar costs for decommissioning.

[Tibbermoresaint]

2 minutes ago, strichener said:

Simply replace nuclear with North sea.  Both of which will be similar costs for decommissioning.

Neither of which will be borne by an independent Scotland.

[The_Kincardine]

17 minutes ago, Tibbermoresaint said:

Neither of which will be borne by an independent Scotland.

Breaking news:  Post-independence Scots' shite doesn't smell.

[Bishop Briggs]

13 hours ago, MixuFixit said:

Roderick Stewart in a kilt - this one would be more fun!