When will indyref2 happen?

[sjc]

2 minutes ago, AUFC90 said:

22 minutes ago, sjc said:

If you can't get your goods to market, you've not got a business. Scotland has 1 commercial airport that can take a 747 (not even an A380!)..... Prestwick. Fucking Prestwick! Additionally, No motorway links to Aberdeen, Dundee, Inverness, Stranraer, Scrabster and even Newcastle Ports.
You carry on hoping for the best but unless this square is circled independence will remain out of reach.

Doesn't Glasgow take A380s. I'm sure Prestwick will be able to as well.

I beg your pardon, yes, Glasgow airport can now take A380's.

Still doesn't change the fact we are woefully equipped to deal with exporting our goods though.

Until we bring that 77% figure down to reflect it's true final destination figure then everything else is just window dressing imo.

[sjc]

Just now, MixuFixit said:

Grangemouth is a very busy port but obviously is restricted to feedstocks for the plant there. Edinburgh (well Leith) is a big port too, though there's no easy way to make it higher capacity being part of a congested city already. Aberdeen harbour is about twice as big as it was 15 years ago, and Dundee has potential to expand and I believe already is for offshore renewables.

One thing worth noting is the UK government as part of its plans for decommissioning oil rigs has £60billion for infrastructure upgrades. You would think it would be a no brainer to use as much of this cash as possible to deepen, widen and enhance roads around these ports as it'll make sea freight for other purposes attractive afterwards.

I agree. Scotland has the basic infrastructure in place. They just need upgraded. FWIW, I agree with @BawWatchin sentiment regarding finding the finances to fund these upgrades.....but ignoring this won't win an IndyRef2 (if/whenever that may come).

[BawWatchin]

44 minutes ago, sjc said:

If you can't get your goods to market, you've not got a business. Scotland has 1 commercial airport that can take a 747 (not even an A380!)..... Prestwick. Fucking Prestwick! Additionally, No motorway links to Aberdeen, Dundee, Inverness, Stranraer, Scrabster and even Newcastle Ports.

You carry on hoping for the best but unless this square is circled independence will remain out of reach.

Like you, I understand the problem. Like you, I have no solution for it. Severe cuts and tax hikes would have to be made in the short term in order to make this possible. But the sheer level of cuts and tax hikes would see any government defeated before the benefits could be reaped.

[welshbairn]

Even with a hard brexit rUk I'd have thought we could have sealed lorries using the channel ports and Eurotunnel with preferential treatment at Rotterdam etc.

[Inanimate Carbon Rod]

I beg your pardon, yes, Glasgow airport can now take A380's.
Still doesn't change the fact we are woefully equipped to deal with exporting our goods though.
Until we bring that 77% figure down to reflect it's true final destination figure then everything else is just window dressing imo.

Prestwick has the potential to be one of the best cargo airports in the UK. Also fyi 747’s regularly fly out of Glasgow and the only thing that prevented an a380 was the lack of the double airbridge for immediate access to both levels, this has been changed to accommodate emirates plans to use Glasgow as an a380 route. Glasgow did previously have an a380 land and coped fine with it.
We have infrastructure for ports at rosyth, port glasgow, aberdeen, stranraer and all the other smaller ports, Scotland could cope quite comfortably.

[sjc]

3 minutes ago, Inanimate Carbon Rod said:

Prestwick has the potential to be one of the best cargo airports in the UK. Also fyi 747’s regularly fly out of Glasgow and the only thing that prevented an a380 was the lack of the double airbridge for immediate access to both levels, this has been changed to accommodate emirates plans to use Glasgow as an a380 route. Glasgow did previously have an a380 land and coped fine with it.
We have infrastructure for ports at rosyth, port glasgow, aberdeen, stranraer and all the other smaller ports, Scotland could cope quite comfortably.

I stated the correction to Glasgow airport in a later post.

If our ports can cope comfortably, why aren't we exporting directly? Logistically, drive the entire length of a Country (UK) with some of the highest fuel prices going, makes no sense.

[git-intae-thum]

A subsidy towards re-introducing passenger traffic/ expanding freight routes from Rosyth to the continent would be a start.

Enough to allow operators to be competitive with or indeed undercut Newcastle/ Hull etc.

Followed by similar Aberdeen to Scandinavia if and when demand permits. Freight currently has to travel to Harwich.

Low pricing increasing demand would encourage private investment in ifrastructure in and around the ports and therefore further operators wishing to use them.

A small price for Scotgov to pay for long term growth.

[BawWatchin]

3 hours ago, sjc said:

I stated the correction to Glasgow airport in a later post.

If our ports can cope comfortably, why aren't we exporting directly? Logistically, drive the entire length of a Country (UK) with some of the highest fuel prices going, makes no sense.

We're part of the UK. The Scottish Government can't demand that companies use Scottish ports as an outlet when they chose to use other outlet ports across the UK. Not all companies in Scotland have an interest in making Scotlands output figures look better.

[NotThePars]

6 hours ago, Detournement said:

It's just my reading of the situation. Sturgeon barely talks about the benefits of independence in comparison with her obsession with the UK remaining in the EU. She appears at People's Vote events but is nowhere to be seen at independence events. The Growth Commission looked like a deliberate attempt to throw cold water on the clamour for Indyref2. The clock is ticking on this Parliament and there is no clear route to a referendum before May 2021.

Sturgeon herself just doesn't seem like the person who is going to push through independence. She has a public sector/civil service mentality rather than that of someone who is going to change paradigms. She seems very comfy in Holyrood and close to UK civil servants. Leslie Evans isn't going survive an inquiry into the Salmond investigation but she remains Permanent Secretary when she should be on gardening leave at best. She clearly prioritises her position in the UK state over the fight for independence.

 

 

The flip side to this analysis is what David Jamieson is arguing which is that Sturgeon is attempting to make the prospect of Scottish independence more attractive to business and the displaced establishment figures especially represented in the People's Vote lobby if the alternative ends up being Scotland shackled to a Hard Tory Brexit or a Corbyn Marxist dystopia.

[git-intae-thum]

2 hours ago, BawWatchin said:

We're part of the UK. The Scottish Government can't demand that companies use Scottish ports as an outlet when they chose to use other outlet ports across the UK. Not all companies in Scotland have an interest in making Scotlands output figures look better.

As in my post re Rosyth. Initial government spending on subsidy for private business/ infrastructure growth, makes facilities competitive, leading to business boost and employment :

>wealthier populace.

>wealthier govt

Slow but sure.

The Sheri-boyds won't like it. But its the only way.

[sjc]

11 hours ago, BawWatchin said:

We're part of the UK. The Scottish Government can't demand that companies use Scottish ports as an outlet when they chose to use other outlet ports across the UK. Not all companies in Scotland have an interest in making Scotlands output figures look better.

Finances will determine which ports/airports are used. Why are ours so uncompetitive, especially when you factor in additional fuel costs in transporting the goods down to England?

This suggests it's far more an issue of capacity.

[sjc]

15 hours ago, MixuFixit said:

I don't think our ports can cope comfortably, at the moment. In any case ships take longer to get to Europe than lorries, so for stuff like, for example JIT supply chains ships are no use.

This is why I suggest this area for investment. Look at China and their one belt one road project. Slightly different but infrastructure nonetheless, with Russia also with their Nordestream and the Iran/Iraq/Syria gas pipelines......both pushed forward due to the Ukrainian conflict, hence cutting the off completely.

[Detournement]

10 hours ago, NotThePars said:

 

The flip side to this analysis is what David Jamieson is arguing which is that Sturgeon is attempting to make the prospect of Scottish independence more attractive to business and the displaced establishment figures especially represented in the People's Vote lobby if the alternative ends up being Scotland shackled to a Hard Tory Brexit or a Corbyn Marxist dystopia.

How many votes do businesses have? The demographics that supported Yes are obvious and if Yes is to reach 50%+1 (and then overcome the backlash for a People's Vote) it's not going to be the business community that makes the difference.

The idea that hard Brexit is going to wreck the UK economy is bullshit. The BoE gamed the figures and could only come up with 8% less growth over 5 years which is pretty much what happened to most of their previous growth predictions anyway. The Corbyn point is irrelevant as there is zero chance of the SNP calling a referendum with a UK Labour government.

When was the last time she campaigned for independence? The fact that independence supporters have convinced themselves that it's entirely natural for the leader of their movement to do nothing to build the Yes movement is bizarre.

[welshbairn]

If businesses say that independence will take us to shite in a handbag it will affect the vote, as it did last time with the pressure on RBS from London.

[HTG]

Sturgeon is focusing on Brexit rather than Indy2 because she knows she'll get pelters from business for making the current situation worse. 

It won't make any difference to the yoons - they'll believe that her real agenda is UK instability and a referendum. And that's the line that they will trot out. Neither she nor the SNP will ever vote for the WA because that would be tacit approval for treating NI differently. 

She is pushing for a second vote and the yoons still think she is doing so as subterfuge despite the LDs and Labour having that in their locker. She'll get it in the neck from Mundell for not supporting the deal despite the fact that more of his own party will reject it than the entirety of the SNP. 

Indy2 will be called when Brexit conditions are clear and the costs understood. There will be a million lines of "told you" from the yoons. And the answer should be "Did ye aye. Very astute given that we told you all the way through this fiasco. Now f**k off ya greetin faced b*****ds." Or similar.

[DeeTillEhDeh]

It's just my reading of the situation. Sturgeon barely talks about the benefits of independence in comparison with her obsession with the UK remaining in the EU. She appears at People's Vote events but is nowhere to be seen at independence events. The Growth Commission looked like a deliberate attempt to throw cold water on the clamour for Indyref2. The clock is ticking on this Parliament and there is no clear route to a referendum before May 2021.
Sturgeon herself just doesn't seem like the person who is going to push through independence. She has a public sector/civil service mentality rather than that of someone who is going to change paradigms. She seems very comfy in Holyrood and close to UK civil servants. Leslie Evans isn't going survive an inquiry into the Salmond investigation but she remains Permanent Secretary when she should be on gardening leave at best. She clearly prioritises her position in the UK state over the fight for independence.
 

She is deliberately playing down IndyRef2 because it was talked about far too early and was clearly damaging at the 2017 General Election.

2 years down the line and it's now clear that Brexit is the mess that many said it would be.

By keeping low key on IndyRef2 and focusing on Brexit she can rightly claim that the Scottish Government have done everything they can of it turns out that they get ignored and we have a hard Brexit.

It's a waiting game that needs to be played out.

[the jambo-rocker]

 

21 hours ago, Kejan said:

Aye, like wise.

Also, the cringe as well! There's a massive amount of people who are almost embarrassed at being Scottish. Equally being super proud of being Scottish gives me the cringe a bit too ; but there's a fine line between both.

If the handling of Brexit by Westminister isn't enough to see Scots that we could (and for the most part ) run our place/region/country better than the UK government then I don't see if anything will (for the next 20 years or so).

 

I would also agree with this. Even thinking about, I by chance I saw someone I hadn't seen in 10 years, and although I would argue I've came on a bit in that time, to mention it  had me feel this hot-wired response that made me feel like a dickhead, which in hindsight feels even considering talking myself up brought it on.

Even now thinking about it, it just feels like talking myself up on social media or a forum, feels akin to bragging like a narcissistic p***k and I wouldn't be surprised if other people feel the same.

 

21 hours ago, sjc said:

IMO the Scottish Government if it's serious about Independence, should be doing all it can to upgrade the Country's infrastructure before even thinking about a 2nd Referendum.

According to the Scottish governments own figures, 77% of our exports go to England, Wales or Northern Ireland. I refuse to believe that this is were all those goods terminate. (It doesn't bear thinking about if it is their final destination!) This suggests that we (sic) don't have the port or airport capacity to get our goods to their final destinations, which leaves us vulnerable to exploitation and/or not getting true value for our goods. 

This is where we as a Nation should start.

A fully thought through plan for currency to prevent QE issues if required also needs to be addressed.

I would agree wholeheartedly with this. Trade would be the biggest issue and I would assume that a lot of our imports are driven up through England from the English channel.

In fairness the Aberdeen dual carriageway as only just been commissioned and as far as I'm aware they're trying to do similar with the Aberdeen to Inverness route. The real issue IMO is in the central belt however, has to be looking at the grossly oversaturated traffic south of Edinburgh. Anyone who drives through it in rush hour times would agree that with the amount of houses being built in the outskirts of Edinburgh will recognise that there is an evermore increasing demand to alleviate the commuting crisis, and it's getting worse by the year.

[RubixPubes]

At this rate never. Nicola Sturgeon has the mandate to call Indyref2 at her leisure but she isn’t exercising the right to do so

Maybe it’s time Nicola stepped aside and let someone else take the wheel to call the referendum that this country so badly needs

Perhaps a Swinney or Blackford would be more forthright in carrying out what the people of Scotland voted for in the last election which gave the SNP their independence referenda mandate

Edited April 10, 2019 by RubixPubes

[Inanimate Carbon Rod]

At this rate never. Nicola Sturgeon has the mandate to call Indyref2 at her leisure but she isn’t exercising the right to do so
Maybe it’s time Nicola stepped aside and let someone else take the wheel to call the referendum that this country so badly needs
Perhaps a Swinney or Blackford would be more forthright in carrying out what the people of Scotland voted for in the last election which gave the SNP their independence referenda mandate

Dont be ridiculous, if she isnt calling it there’s a reason for it.

[Colkitto]

15 minutes ago, RubixPubes said:

At this rate never. Nicola Sturgeon has the mandate to call Indyref2 at her leisure but she isn’t exercising the right to do so

Maybe it’s time Nicola stepped aside and let someone else take the wheel to call the referendum that this country so badly needs

Perhaps a Swinney or Blackford would be more forthright in carrying out what the people of Scotland voted for in the last election which gave the SNP their independence referenda mandate

Totally agree with you that the country badly needs indyref2. Nicola doesn't have full control of events of Brexit (which gives us the mandate) 

I would imagine after this week is over this initial part of the process will be known. We will have either a no deal, a deal or an extension (date to be agreed).

I would expect an update from Nicola in any of those scenarios apart from perhaps a short extension to maybe June 30th.