When will indyref2 happen?

[Detournement]

27 minutes ago, MixuFixit said:

Johnboy isn't moaning about Burnley because it's English, he's moaning about it because it's a leave voting place with a nasty vibe. The idea we'd all dogpile on an Englishman doing this in Falkirk if it was the same as Burnley is silly.

What makes you think Burnley has a nasty vibe?

If an English person came on here and constantly moaned about Scottish people sitting in a boozer being thick he would get hounded.

[Detournement]

2 minutes ago, JamieThomas said:

Tbf if a lad from Burnley was shitting on Falkirk because it's full of Brexit loving racist fuckwits, I'd 100% rip the pish out of him.

Burnley voted 66% leave. Falkirk voted 43% leave. Both had 67% turnout. 28,000 Leave votes in Burnley. 32,000 Leave votes in Falkirk.

Clearly a quantitative rather than a qualitative difference.

[JamieThomas]

2 minutes ago, Detournement said:

Burnley voted 66% leave. Falkirk voted 43% leave. Both had 67% turnout. 28,000 Leave votes in Burnley. 32,000 Leave votes in Falkirk.

Clearly a quantitative rather than a qualitative difference.

If we're fucking around with figures, then it seems the population of Burnley is 87k, and Falkirk 160k. I'm happy to stick with my stance.

[Detournement]

2 minutes ago, JamieThomas said:

If we're fucking around with figures, then it seems the population of Burnley is 87k, and Falkirk 160k. I'm happy to stick with my stance.

The results are for Falkirk council area.

The point is that stereotyping a whole town based on the fact that he regularly drinks with racists says more about him than the town.

[ICTJohnboy]

9 hours ago, Inanimate Carbon Rod said:

Tbf is it not Burnley he lives? If so its already too late.

 

7 hours ago, sophia said:

This complete shambles is founded upon English exceptionalism, and as Johnboy quite rightly points out, Burnley is part of that nationalist debacle, so I don't think you have a substantial point at all.

 

12 minutes ago, MixuFixit said:

Johnboy isn't moaning about Burnley because it's English, he's moaning about it because it's a leave voting place with a nasty vibe. The idea we'd all dogpile on an Englishman doing this in Falkirk if it was the same as Burnley is silly.

 

Johnboy's now relocated to the fashionable, up-market Lancashire town of Accrington where many of the football loving locals support someone called Stanley.

Like Burnley, Accrington is very much a leave voting area but I've now learned it's not always a good idea to frequent the local hostelries and try to persuade the locals that remaining in the EU would and should be the UK's best option.

There is a nasty vibe throughout many parts of England, and mutterings, or even threats of civil unrest are frequently to be heard - that is, if Brexit is not going to materialize. It's not at all clear as to what level of Brexit would be acceptable, all that matters to so many, is that all these foreigners have come to the UK to take advantage of free health care, housing benefits, and any other kind of benefits going, and this must now stop.

 

 

[Benjamin_Nevis]

Unsure what's funnier tbh. RedRob's teary-eyed mewling or H_B's continued efforts to find another Supras.

[Inanimate Carbon Rod]

 
Lancashire
 
 

Does it annoy anyone else the way they pronounce ‘shire’ as ‘sheer’ in the thicko brexit parts of the UK?

[JamieThomas]

It annoys me that 9/10 when I type 'shire' I type 'shite' instead.

Factual accuracy not usually a problem, mind.

[ICTJohnboy]

2 hours ago, Inanimate Carbon Rod said:

Does it annoy anyone else the way they pronounce ‘shire’ as ‘sheer’ in the thicko brexit parts of the UK?

 

It annoys me too, but it's not just confined to the thicko areas of the Yukki.

[Billy Rubin]

I see the Progress Scotland poll was swept under the carpet because it showed around 40%-60% on the indy question.   

The drop of in quality between Salmond and Sturgeon has been vast, and it's at least 12 months till Alex gets cleared.  

[renton]

10 hours ago, Billy Rubin said:

I see the Progress Scotland poll was swept under the carpet because it showed around 40%-60% on the indy question.   

The drop of in quality between Salmond and Sturgeon has been vast, and it's at least 12 months till Alex gets cleared.  

Well no, it asked the question in a really weird mark where you are out of 10 type way. About a month ago Wings used Panelbase to ask the question in terms of Indy or Brexit and got a 53/47% lead for Indy. In between those two Survation asked the question and found the by now traditional mid 40s support.

I'm not one of those who believe polls are useless, and indeed they usually point to useful trends but asking the question in different ways can be used to completely f**k things up.

I don't think Sturgeon has represented a drop in quality, in many respects she's a superior statesperson to Salmond, more measured and steadier - she isn't the same attention grabbing guerrilla type of politician as Salmond but then again he had to be due to the pre-devolution limitations on SNP representation. 

Ultimately the polls will only move (in either direction) when given a campaign to focus the electorate on.

Edited April 5, 2019 by renton

[tirso]

surely someone has commissioned a poll on the straight question of independence yes or no over the last week or so.

It simply must be a lead at this point, I feel or we can pack this thread up for the next 15 years or so.

I think if we ever do get another vote in the near future it possibly should now be in two parts.  Part a on independence, part b on application for EU membership.

Edited April 5, 2019 by tirso

[renton]

2 minutes ago, tirso said:

surely someone has commissioned a poll on the straight question of independence yes or no over the last week or so.

It simply must be a lead at this point, I feel or we can pack this thread up for the next 15 years or so.

I think if we ever do get another vote in the near future it possibly should now be in two parts.  Part a on independence, part b on application for EU membership.

I really don't think it is. Polling at this stage is a hypothetical: A hypothetical referendum in the aftermath of a constitutional change in Brexit that hasn't occurred yet. If we wait until there is a sustained lead in the polls it'll never happen. People need to be convinced. They won't be without an actual campaign: The SNP doing the day job won't move the needle either. 

Wings asked the question in terms of Brexit and found a lead, others found differently asking different questions. The standard polling still has Yes at mid to high 40s depending on in house effects. For all we know that could collapse after a referendum were called, or it could jump up in the wake of anything barring the softest Brexit. We simply won't know until we get on with it. 

[tirso]

7 minutes ago, renton said:

I really don't think it is. Polling at this stage is a hypothetical: A hypothetical referendum in the aftermath of a constitutional change in Brexit that hasn't occurred yet. If we wait until there is a sustained lead in the polls it'll never happen. People need to be convinced. They won't be without an actual campaign: The SNP doing the day job won't move the needle either. 

Wings asked the question in terms of Brexit and found a lead, others found differently asking different questions. The standard polling still has Yes at mid to high 40s depending on in house effects. For all we know that could collapse after a referendum were called, or it could jump up in the wake of anything barring the softest Brexit. We simply won't know until we get on with it. 

I get that.  And have considered that for a long time to be the case.  I do agree things can change if a vote is called.

But i'm now of the opinion that Yes should be in the lead now.  Why is No still in the lead in every straight question asked?  These people don't live in a bubble; they're being asked the polling question in a time when Britain is a laughing stock across the world.  And the majority by a distance of 7-10% usually are still plumping for No.  Where are the old unionists dying, the youth coming through...the soft No's of 2014?  They should be emboldened to decide Yes in a poll that doesn't actually affect the change in question.  There should have been a bigger movement.  There hasn't been.

Edited April 5, 2019 by tirso

[renton]

4 minutes ago, tirso said:

I get that.  And have considered that for a long time to be the case.  I do agree things can change if a vote is called.

But i'm now of the opinion that Yes should be in the lead now.  Why is No still in the lead in every straight question asked?  These people don't live in a bubble; they're being asked the polling question in a time when Britain is a laughing stock across the world.  And the majority by a distance of 7-10% usually are still plumping for No.  Where are the old unionists dying, the youth coming through...the soft No's of 2014?  They should be emboldened to decide Yes in a poll that doesn't actually affect the change in question.  There should have been a bigger movement.  There hasn't been.

They don't live in a bubble but they aren't necessarily engaged. Brexit hasn't happened, the effect of Brexit hasn't been felt. People have their heads full of Brexit shite: If Yes only made a real go of it in the Summer of '14 with a fresh coterie of upbeat positive messaging, then Brexit is the dourest of bandwidth sucking, dumb, mean spirited politicking. Indy isn't even a side show in that ferbile atmosphere and the message won't cut through until the EU exit is sorted. If you ask folk if they want another referendum tomorrow they'd say no, if you asked them if they wanted another GE tomorrow they'd say no.

One constant of politics in the British isles is the heroic disengagement of the general  public from issues of national import. Other nations might cherish local democracy, their constitutions and debate: We don't. For the general public, engagement is generally petty complaints and the assumption that someone, somewhere should be 'getting on with it' and not bothering them, the general public, too much. That's not to say that the Great British Public can't get on board with the idea of radical change, but it does require them to be kind of forced into paying attention.

I'm not worried because ultimately it won't be polling that decides the timing of the referendum. It'll be chiefly decided by the fallout of Brexit and the 2021 election. If the former is anything other than the softest touch of Brexit, then the economic toll on Scotland wrought by it along with the probable mid term disintegration of the devolution settlement will force the Scottish government to take a decision on the Indyref regardless of where they are polling.

[Antlion]

12 minutes ago, oaksoft said:

The problem is that you are seeing things from your own perspective. Nobody cares how other countries see us. The often-used comment about older No voters dying off and being replaced with younger Yes voters is also wrong. As people move into older age brackets they become more risk averse for very good reasons - they have more to lose if things go tits up. So older No voters are being replaced by people changing from Yes to No as they age. An alternative explanation could be that either those people aren't dying off as much as thought or that there is such a vast majority for No in that group that deaths alone won't re-dress the balance over just 5 years.

For the vast majority of people, life is obviously pretty good right now and IMO people have enough risk to worry about with Brexit on the horizon. If that wasn't true you'd see different polling results.

Finally, I think a lot of people simply believe the question has been answered and it's time to move on. I am of that camp. If there was a vote tomorrow I would vote No having voted Yes in 2014. I'm not alone in that camp.

Funny how that risk aversion didn’t stop droves of older voters opting to  help cause all that “risk to worry about with Brexit”. 

[tirso]

7 minutes ago, oaksoft said:

The problem is that you are seeing things from your own perspective. Nobody cares how other countries see us. The often-used comment about older No voters dying off and being replaced with younger Yes voters is also wrong. As people move into older age brackets they become more risk averse for very good reasons - they have more to lose if things go tits up. So older No voters are being replaced by people changing from Yes to No as they age. An alternative explanation could be that either those people aren't dying off as much as thought or that there is such a vast majority for No in that group that deaths alone won't re-dress the balance over just 5 years.

For the vast majority of people, life is obviously pretty good right now and IMO people have enough risk to worry about with Brexit on the horizon. If that wasn't true you'd see different polling results.

Finally, I think a lot of people simply believe the question has been answered and it's time to move on. I am of that camp. If there was a vote tomorrow I would vote No having voted Yes in 2014. I'm not alone in that camp.

Well yes, that's my point.  Things are still an uphill struggle for independence when it really should be a lot easier now given circumstances.

I obviously don't agree with you on the question of it being settled but accept that seems to be how many people are swinging.  Obviously it's still close.

I didn't want another referendum as I believe the 2014 result should be respected and the UK's promises to Scotland should be given complete opportunity to come to force for at least 15 years or so.  I don't relish it at all.  However, Brexit changes things too much for me and whether I think it's tactically a good idea or not is irrelevant.  I think morally, it has to be called.   I agree the older demographic can shift in time; however, on balance, I feel another 10/15 years would have been in Yes' favour.  That said, I don't think we should stop the people having a say about the direction now.  Then noone can really complain either way. 

[renton]

23 minutes ago, oaksoft said:

The problem is that you are seeing things from your own perspective. Nobody cares how other countries see us. The often-used comment about older No voters dying off and being replaced with younger Yes voters is also wrong. As people move into older age brackets they become more risk averse for very good reasons - they have more to lose if things go tits up. So older No voters are being replaced by people changing from Yes to No as they age. An alternative explanation could be that either those people aren't dying off as much as thought or that there is such a vast majority for No in that group that deaths alone won't re-dress the balance over just 5 years.

For the vast majority of people, life is obviously pretty good right now and IMO people have enough risk to worry about with Brexit on the horizon. If that wasn't true you'd see different polling results.

Finally, I think a lot of people simply believe the question has been answered and it's time to move on. I am of that camp. If there was a vote tomorrow I would vote No having voted Yes in 2014. I'm not alone in that camp.

I don't think that's it. It's certainly not borne out by the post referendum analysis done by the researchers at Edinburgh Uni. What we saw there was an increasing No vote with age, yes - but the tipping point did not occur until after the 49+ age bracket. Long after a significant proportion of people would be in full time employment, property owners and parents i.e. already exposed to significant levels of risk. On the other hand the No vote kept increasing even after you hit pension age - in other words after the maximum level of risk exposure has been reached. The other point, that the Scots born-Scots domicile and the other UK borne-Scots domicile voted in radically different ways: 53/47 for vs 20/80 against suggests that economic risk was not an all encompassing factor, albeit one that definitely did play a role.

To my mind the 49+ cut off is significant in that we are talking about the first generation of people who's formative years were after the replacement of the post war settlement and the economic upheavals of Thatcherism. Whether you agree with them or not, their impact was to radically revise how many saw the role of the UK state in their lives. Also, the farther we get from the 'Greatest Generation' as the Americans would call it, the more the crusading Churchillian idea of the British state as a moral force for good becomes a folk myth rather than a lived reality. Especially post Thatcher, post devolution I think younger generations of Scots have a far more transactional relationship with the UK than older ones who saw Britain as a moral imperative. 

So I don't think that younger Scots who've known the semi detached devolution state as their whole normal, and who had the experience of IndyRef are necessarily going to jump to No as soon as they hit the median wage category and start paying off their student debt. Your other point about the rate of older folk dying off is more pertinent. It's not like 2017 rolled around and a couple of hundred thousand old folk dropped dead. We won't hit a probable demographic tipping point until 2023 (which makes the 2021 election very interesting indeed)

I don't follow the logic of your last point. While I might understand the logic of now voting for a Unionist party to prevent the question being asked, I don't see why a past iteration of the referendum would impact on your assessment of the issues confronting the nation in a future one?

Edited April 5, 2019 by renton

[vikingTON]

Old reactionary bores always hilariously overstate the political effect of ageing itself rather than the generational cohort that you grow old within to convince themselves that their regressive views won't end up on the wrong side of history.  They're fooling absolutely nobody though. 

[renton]

Just now, virginton said:

Old reactionary bores always hilariously overstate the political effect of ageing itself rather than the generational cohort that you grow old within to convince themselves that their regressive views won't end up on the wrong side of history.  They're fooling absolutely nobody though. 

Very true. That argument also does remind me of this: