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When will indyref2 happen?


Colkitto

Indyref2  

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So, assuming that the UK leaves the EU, do you think the EU nations would be more receptive to an independent Scotland?
During the referendum in 2014 they were very careful not to tread on the toes of the UK. Would any obligations to keep the the UK happy be null and void in the run up to indyref2?
I imagine the EU would absolutely relish Little Britain being kettled politically and economically by Ireland, Scotland and mainland Europe.
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So, assuming that the UK leaves the EU, do you think the EU nations would be more receptive to an independent Scotland?
During the referendum in 2014 they were very careful not to tread on the toes of the UK. Would any obligations to keep the the UK happy be null and void in the run up to indyref2?

Yes I believe the EU would make very positive noises about Scotland, its already started to happen. Almost being courted by them just now.

Incidentally, if we became an EEA country and UK had a hard brexit, could we have our own free movement agreement with UK?
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2 minutes ago, Inanimate Carbon Rod said:


Yes I believe the EU would make very positive noises about Scotland, its already started to happen. Almost being courted by them just now.

Incidentally, if we became an EEA country and UK had a hard brexit, could we have our own free movement agreement with UK?

Independence wouldn't affect the Common Travel Area.

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Independence wouldn't affect the Common Travel Area.

No what I mean is, if there is a hard brexit and the UK has a solid border with the EU, could Scotland circumvent any potential hard border by not joining the EU but having a EEA type arrangement whereby we have access to EU markets and also ability to have our own trade agreement with UK.

Anyway top news on BBC, England has a water shortage, I wonder what Scottish resource they’ll be looking to plunder next....
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3 minutes ago, Inanimate Carbon Rod said:


No what I mean is, if there is a hard brexit and the UK has a solid border with the EU, could Scotland circumvent any potential hard border by not joining the EU but having a EEA type arrangement whereby we have access to EU markets and also ability to have our own trade agreement with UK.

Anyway top news on BBC, England has a water shortage, I wonder what Scottish resource they’ll be looking to plunder next....

Why would we want our own trade agreement with the UK when being part of an EU-UK agreement would be much more advantageous?

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I think the EU will be far more sympathetic to Scottish Independance this time round.

The EU is by its very nature both expansionist and protectionist in its outlook.

In 2014 it had the possibility of a member state splitting in 2.  They stayed remarkably neutral despite all the claims made on both sides and by the press and did not get too involved .Regardless of the result, it was in the EUs interest for all British citizens to remain EU citizens, wether or not Scotland voted for independence. From their point of view the Scottish referendum was an irrelevance and was important not to rock the boat.

Next time it will be Scotland voting for Independance from a nation outwith the EU and who is openly hostile towards it. Scotland looks keen to join the EU so one result will be far more beneficial than the other. The Scottish government needs to get its ducks in a row and have support from the EU nations leaders before any referendum is called.

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Article 4 of the EU Treaty states that the EU must respect the territorial integrity of member states. This required them not to give any encouragement to Yes whatsoever (as well as obliging them to turn a blind eye to Castillian outrages in Catalonia. I'd suggest this article needs a rethink).

This won't apply in indyref2 and I suspect we'll see a lot more pro-active involvement from both the EU and member states next time. Not enough to hack the rUK off but enough to let us know we're wanted and welcome.

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There will be a very different EU response this time round.

See recent comments by numerous EU and EU member state officials such as Guy Verhofstadt, the Spanish foriegn minister, leader of German opposition  etc etc...and that is before the UK has even left.

 

Edited by git-intae-thum
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6 hours ago, Lurkst said:

The BBC will probably still drag out that Barroso character to say it can't happen.

Which is why on day one of the campaign the SNP need to have representatives from each of the 27 eu nations pledging a place to Scotland within the EU.

 

If they try to build the consensus during the campaign it will get muddied again.

 

The tactics of fear and obfuscation will be exactly the same next time, they same people have won 2 referendums that way.

 

Yes needs to be clear, concise and have the backing of big hitters to back up all their claims from the off.

 

 

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1 hour ago, Merkie84 said:

Which is why on day one of the campaign the SNP need to have representatives from each of the 27 eu nations pledging a place to Scotland within the EU.

 

If they try to build the consensus during the campaign it will get muddied again.

 

The tactics of fear and obfuscation will be exactly the same next time, they same people have won 2 referendums that way.

 

Yes needs to be clear, concise and have the backing of big hitters to back up all their claims from the off.

 

 

 

Um, no. The UK government and establishment won the 2014 referendum but they lost the 2016 one.

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Which is why on day one of the campaign the SNP need to have representatives from each of the 27 eu nations pledging a place to Scotland within the EU.
 
If they try to build the consensus during the campaign it will get muddied again.
 
The tactics of fear and obfuscation will be exactly the same next time, they same people have won 2 referendums that way.
 
Yes needs to be clear, concise and have the backing of big hitters to back up all their claims from the off.
 
 
Agree with this. Yes came close but not close enough regrding the case for change (which most folk agree, the case for change needs to be much stronger than the case for staus quo)

This time, the status quo can be easily shown to be worse than it was then, the arguements they had then against separatism dont stack up with Brexit etc which many of the No side are all for.

Also, crucially theres no excuse for not having the big stumbling blocks of last time ironed out. Day one of campainging, nail down the currency issue etc.

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It's a bit of a disgrace if brexit doesn't go ahead. The UK did vote for it. If there are delays I can see it getting very nasty down South. The skin head pea brains have been gagging for a scrap.

I just don't know when Sturgeon pulls the trigger, we could be hanging around for brexit to actually happen.

The tories know a no deal brexit guarantees the break up of the UK and most probably re-uniting Ireland again, surely they aren't going to go ahead with no deal?

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How there’s only a 4 point gap in that poll for independence compared to No Deal Brexit is what baffles me. Genuinely cannot believe there are people out there that think being part of an uber right-wing UK is better than independence and part of the EU. Absolute moon-howlers.

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