GTG_03 Posted March 18, 2019 Share Posted March 18, 2019 6 hours ago, jupe1407 said: I'd almost trade independence for that outcome. It would be absolute #scenes, completely topping the 2015 destruction of Labour. The scenes would be great...for a while. UK government and unionists would say that it's proof Scotland has a say in the union though. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SandyCromarty Posted March 18, 2019 Share Posted March 18, 2019 On 3/17/2019 at 06:06, Baxter Parp said: https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-47582288 Secret indyref poll in 2014 'put Yes 4% ahead' Aye and Fatty Davidson a leader of a Scottish minority party telling the UK Gov to feck off if they intend giving the Scottish Gov more powers, fat tory clown that she is trying to deny her birth country, she needs to GTF to Westminster. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Lambies Doos Posted March 18, 2019 Share Posted March 18, 2019 Masters keeping a country down 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colkitto Posted March 19, 2019 Author Share Posted March 19, 2019 If Article 50 is revoked, what happens to the indyref2 mandate? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renton Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 42 minutes ago, Colkitto said: If Article 50 is revoked, what happens to the indyref2 mandate? Probably on ice, and Sturgeon then needs to use the 2021 election, or a Westminster GE before then, to reiterate the need for one in the face of Westminster's utter failure to lead the country. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan Steele Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 49 minutes ago, Colkitto said: If Article 50 is revoked, what happens to the indyref2 mandate? 5 minutes ago, renton said: Probably on ice, and Sturgeon then needs to use the 2021 election, or a Westminster GE before then, to reiterate the need for one in the face of Westminster's utter failure to lead the country. I'm not so sure waiting for 2021 or GE is the way. With all that is happening in UK politics, from a Tory party tearing itself apart to Labour's inabilityto be an Opposition, SNP have offered sensible suggestions throughout this debacle. Regardless of the Brexit outcome surely a push to use the mandate, highlighting the inability of either Tory or Labour to govern, is the way? Tory party has never been weaker so SNP should be ready (sure they are) with all arguments to use the mandate. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Londonwell Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 54 minutes ago, Colkitto said: If Article 50 is revoked, what happens to the indyref2 mandate? The mandate from the manifesto is about being "dragged out of the EU against our will". If that doesn't happen then that particular mandate doesn't exist. As alluded to above an election of some description would be needed to drive the issue forward. Personally i think the chances of A50 being revoked to be close to zero but you never know. An extension to A50 is an interesting one as i really don't know what the SNP do in that scenario re. independence, there is a political cabinet meeting this week to discuss exactly that. They are bricking it from a no deal exit and believe it really harms the case for Indy with all the issues that will throw up for trade with ruk and borders etc. The SNP's ideal scenario is that the ruk remains in the SM and CU, which they believe eases any transition post indy and kills many of the scare stories dead during any campaign. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renton Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 1 minute ago, The Skelpit Lug said: I'm not so sure waiting for 2021 or GE is the way. With all that is happening in UK politics, from a Tory party tearing itself apart to Labour's inabilityto be an Opposition, SNP have offered sensible suggestions throughout this debacle. Regardless of the Brexit outcome surely a push to use the mandate, highlighting the inability of either Tory or Labour to govern, is the way? Tory party has never been weaker so SNP should be ready (sure they are) with all arguments to use the mandate. It very much depends on how events develop, but the mandate was based on a 'material change of circumstance' that would no longer apply under a revocation. Granted, the general disgust at how Westminster is unable to govern, the evidence of real economic damage evinced by this debacle should be enough to propel another push for Indy but I also think Sturgeon would be really pushing the envelope of the mandate provided by the Scottish parliament and might be better going back for a more general directive from her legislature. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 I think it would take a massive crisis like a war for A50 to be revoked. MPs can't afford to lose half their electorate. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry94 Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 16 minutes ago, Londonwell said: They are bricking it from a no deal exit and believe it really harms the case for Indy with all the issues that will throw up for trade with ruk and borders etc. The SNP's ideal scenario is that the ruk remains in the SM and CU, which they believe eases any transition post indy and kills many of the scare stories dead during any campaign. The May agreement is actually a decent enough arrangement for a Scottish Independence perspective. It pretty much keeps those aspects in place as the backstop represents a default position with any trade deal having to be based on the free flow of goods and no Irish border. I don't really know how on earth the UK Government are really planning to solve this issue. People want to Brexit but seem to think that they can get some super deal from the EU, it's really not going to get better than what is on offer. I half wonder if the only card the Government have left is to just now intentionally blunder the extension talks and don't agree a deal, then they'd basically try and force the EU to act on Ireland and handle it themselves. Then, in chaos - a border poll to fix the backstop problem for good? It really would be a nightmare scenario for Scotland I think. It pretty much throws a huge part of the economy back into Westminster control as we'd be so reliant on their approval for a deal - that could be fundamentally contradictory to EU/EEA membership. There are resources here that rUK are desperate for (i.e. water) but the whole Scottish economy is fundamentally integrated with the UK so it'd be a disaster scenario to change to change that overnight and lose access to that market place. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colkitto Posted March 19, 2019 Author Share Posted March 19, 2019 I'm not sure what is the best outcome in regards to indyref2. Article 50 Revoked - We lose the mandate and have to win another Holyrood election pro-indy majority. May's deal - Takes away a lot of the scaremongering like land borders with England. Shows Scotland disadvantaged compared to N.I. No Deal - Total economic and social chaos, people losing their jobs, food and medicine shortages. Would this have people clamouring for independence - I think it would? Maybe the only think that will get people to wake up to indy. Would expect Yes to win by a very large margin. Downside would be land-border with England - but would that matter in all the chaos? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Londonwell Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 2 minutes ago, Colkitto said: I'm not sure what is the best outcome in regards to indyref2. Article 50 Revoked - We lose the mandate and have to win another Holyrood election pro-indy majority. May's deal - Takes away a lot of the scaremongering like land borders with England. Shows Scotland disadvantaged compared to N.I. No Deal - Total economic and social chaos, people losing their jobs, food and medicine shortages. Would this have people clamouring for independence - I think it would? Maybe the only think that will get people to wake up to indy. Would expect Yes to win by a very large margin. Downside would be land-border with England - but would that matter in all the chaos? The other thing with No Deal is that the Scot Gov would have to put all its efforts into dealing with whatever chaos comes their way and indy would be put on the back burner. May's deal getting through, is at this stage, the best course for Indy. If only the evil wummin wasn't so damn useless... 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renton Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 5 minutes ago, Colkitto said: I'm not sure what is the best outcome in regards to indyref2. Article 50 Revoked - We lose the mandate and have to win another Holyrood election pro-indy majority. May's deal - Takes away a lot of the scaremongering like land borders with England. Shows Scotland disadvantaged compared to N.I. No Deal - Total economic and social chaos, people losing their jobs, food and medicine shortages. Would this have people clamouring for independence - I think it would? Maybe the only think that will get people to wake up to indy. Would expect Yes to win by a very large margin. Downside would be land-border with England - but would that matter in all the chaos? In fairness, the SNP have spent a long time battering May's deal as particularly bad for Scotland. I don't think they'd have an issue using that as a launch pad. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colkitto Posted March 19, 2019 Author Share Posted March 19, 2019 6 minutes ago, renton said: In fairness, the SNP have spent a long time battering May's deal as particularly bad for Scotland. I don't think they'd have an issue using that as a launch pad. Yip, that's my thoughts too 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colkitto Posted March 19, 2019 Author Share Posted March 19, 2019 7 minutes ago, Londonwell said: The other thing with No Deal is that the Scot Gov would have to put all its efforts into dealing with whatever chaos comes their way and indy would be put on the back burner. May's deal getting through, is at this stage, the best course for Indy. If only the evil wummin wasn't so damn useless... May's deal takes us out of the EU - which keeps the mandate for indyref2. So not all bad from that perspective. No Deal, would indeed bring chaos. But played the right way we could use to our advantage. As in "We have to get back in the EU and out of the UK" Hmmnn... 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Londonwell Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 (edited) 7 minutes ago, Colkitto said: May's deal takes us out of the EU - which keeps the mandate for indyref2. So not all bad from that perspective. No Deal, would indeed bring chaos. But played the right way we could use to our advantage. As in "We have to get back in the EU and out of the UK" Hmmnn... Yes as I said May’s deal getting through, outside of a general election, is the SNP’s favoured scenario at this stage of proceedings. Unless you get into the realms of a new deal being agreed, which the EU has ruled out. An indy ref gets much further away in the event of a no deal. Edited March 19, 2019 by Londonwell 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 (edited) 32 minutes ago, Londonwell said: Unless you get into the realms of a new deal being agreed, which the EU has ruled out. Only if they don't change May's red lines. Edited March 19, 2019 by welshbairn 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Londonwell Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 6 minutes ago, welshbairn said: Only if they don't change May's red lines. Removing Mays red lines would mean removing May which may mean a general election, which would be lovely 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 1 minute ago, Londonwell said: Removing Mays red lines would mean removing May which may mean a general election, which would be lovely I think that's getting more and more likely. The word from Europe is they won't grant an extension without a good reason or plan. If her deal is dead a GE would be a good reason, and I can't see another viable option, unless she goes against Parliament and allows a hard brexit, which would end the Government anyway. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anonapersona Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 So, assuming that the UK leaves the EU, do you think the EU nations would be more receptive to an independent Scotland? During the referendum in 2014 they were very careful not to tread on the toes of the UK. Would any obligations to keep the the UK happy be null and void in the run up to indyref2? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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