When will indyref2 happen?

[tirso]

1 minute ago, git-intae-thum said:

Wrong. It allows the rUK to dictate iScotlands monetary policy from day 1.

The correct course is to have the plans for a new currency fully established, fully critiqued by economic experts and placed in front of the electorate before day 1 of any new indy ref campaign. That way any nonsense spouted by the britnats can be crushed with solid academic evidence.

Keeping the pound was and is a loser.

 

I don't agree.  I think it was a winner and eased more to Yes than it repulsed.  Just not enough.  I don't believe for one minute "rejection" of currency was the defining factor for many swayers last time.  More reassurance was needed, not more radical steps.

The UK also said their objection would quickly be dropped after a Yes vote.  I agreed with the currency analysis at the time by the economists Beveridge and Stiglitz around divergence and defacto influence. 

Of course we could go for our new currency at some point in the future but from day one to year 15 at least it should be Sterling all the way until such time as risk has been mitigated.

I think it's a massive vote loser to put forward a new currency early.  So many easy holes to pick through.

[git-intae-thum]

1 minute ago, tirso said:

I don't agree.  I think it was a winner and eased more to Yes than it repulsed.  Just not enough.  I don't believe for one minute "rejection" of currency was the defining factor for many swayers last time.  More reassurance was needed, not more radical steps.

The UK also said their objection would quickly be dropped after a Yes vote.  I agreed with the currency analysis at the time by the economists Beveridge and Stiglitz around divergence and defacto influence. 

Of course we could go for our new currency at some point in the future but from day one to year 15 at least it should be Sterling all the way until such time as risk has been mitigated.

I think it's a massive vote loser to put forward a new currency early.  So many easy holes to pick through.

No. Darlings currency ambush on Salmond in the first big debate was a disaster and started to stem the flow of momentum to yes....it also allowed all the follow on arguments about them refusing a cu and pensions, benefits, wages etc not getting paid. Bullshit obviously. However it frightened the auld, weak minded and gullible. 

The same thing will happen again. 

Why the wish to have the BoE set our monetary policy? Its is a recipe for disaster. Especially in the early days. 

A properly developed currency plan, laid out well before implementation has always been the way to go.

 

[Suspect Device]

Pretty sure that Ireland used sterling for a transitional period after independence. Is there anything reason we couldn't do similar?

 

[tirso]

9 minutes ago, git-intae-thum said:

No. Darlings currency ambush on Salmond in the first big debate was a disaster and started to stem the flow of momentum to yes....it also allowed all the follow on arguments about them refusing a cu and pensions, benefits, wages etc not getting paid. Bullshit obviously. However it frightened the auld, weak minded and gullible. 

The same thing will happen again. 

Why the wish to have the BoE set our monetary policy? Its is a recipe for disaster. Especially in the early days. 

A properly developed currency plan, laid out well before implementation has always been the way to go.

 

x10 those scare stories with a new currency.

[welshbairn]

2 minutes ago, Suspect Device said:

Pretty sure that Ireland used sterling for a transitional period after independence. Is there anything reason we couldn't do similar?

 

Right up until 1979. They did far better economically after leaving though.

[DeeTillEhDeh]

We know this is going to happen. How the SNP and the wider Yes movement react to it will be crucial.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47406529
 
 

Work with Greens to vote for fresh Scottish elections.

[DeeTillEhDeh]

Sterling would have to be used on a transitional basis before moving to either an icurrency or the euro.

 

I'd personally prefer an icurrency for both economic and political reasons.

 

 

[NotThePars]

I don't know if the actual currency option was as important as the fact that the debate became immediately bogged down and sapped the momentum of Yes when it was mooted. That probably justifies taking an approach where the first say over any currency problems doesn't go to the rUK.

Yes should be taking notes from 2014 and Labour post-2017 in that the forces railed against it don't have the ability to offer a better vision of society than the one we're offering so they're going to obfuscate, mislead and make mountains out of probable molehills. The strategy, IMO, is to largely swerve it and focus on our strengths and go right for the jugular. 

[welshbairn]

3 minutes ago, NotThePars said:

I don't know if the actual currency option was as important as the fact that the debate became immediately bogged down and sapped the momentum of Yes when it was mooted. That probably justifies taking an approach where the first say over any currency problems doesn't go to the rUK.

Yes should be taking notes from 2014 and Labour post-2017 in that the forces railed against it don't have the ability to offer a better vision of society than the one we're offering so they're going to obfuscate, mislead and make mountains out of probable molehills. The strategy, IMO, is to largely swerve it and focus on our strengths and go right for the jugular. 

An advantage is that this time we have shed loads of Tories saying that frictionless borders are easy. Not sure about swerving the issue, that's what we tried last time. Scottish currency on day one pegged to the pound, and floated when market conditions are right.

 

[Dan Steele]

1 hour ago, DeeTillEhDeh said:

Sterling would have to be used on a transitional basis before moving to either an icurrency or the euro.

I'd personally prefer an icurrency from both economic and political reasons.

Doesn't seem much point in becoming independent and stepping away from a union to have, well, a currency union with a union we're leaving.

[AUFC90]

Doesn't seem much point in becoming independent and stepping away from a union to have, well, a currency union with a union we're leaving.

There is a point if it's the sensible thing to do. Fact is the likes of Osbourne and co who ruled it out last time would have been out on their arse the day after a yes vote and common sense would have took over.

[DeeTillEhDeh]

Doesn't seem much point in becoming independent and stepping away from a union to have, well, a currency union with a union we're leaving.

No-one is saying that it would be permanent - the reality is that there would almost certainly have to be some sort of transition period - it would just need to be as short as possible.

 

[John Lambies Doos]

It's oor pound too just won't work

 

[BawWatchin]

48 minutes ago, John Lambies Doos said:

It's oor pound too just won't work

National bank, national currency. If we're not allowed to call it the pound, then somebody should warn those Canadians that they're bordering a country who also uses the dollar.

[lichtgilphead]

First time I visited Malta (Scotland game in 1988), their pound was worth £1.60 GBP. Only time I've ever paid more than £1 for one unit of the local currency.

Thanks to Brexit, I may get to revisit this situation next month if the pound tanks further against the Euro.

The Maltese pound was anchored to the GBP until 1971 on a 1:1 basis. At the time they converted to the Euro, it was at a rate of 43 maltese pennies = 1 euro. 

My view is that anchoring to the GBP in the short term after independence didn't do Malta any harm. Floating the currency didn't do them any harm either, Neither did joining the Euro. In real terms, in 1971, £1 GBP = £1 maltese. In 2019, £1 GBP = just over 1 Euro (43 pence maltese)

In January 1959, the Times newspaper (that's the one published in the UK, not the completely seperate "Times of Malta") stated that “Malta cannot live on its own ... the island could pay for only one-fifth of her food and essential imports; well over one-quarter of the present labour force would be out of work, and the economy would collapse without British Treasury subventions. Talk of full independence for Malta is therefore hopelessly impractical.”

Aye. Right.

[John Lambies Doos]

National bank, national currency. If we're not allowed to call it the pound, then somebody should warn those Canadians that they're bordering a country who also uses the dollar.

Eh ... Think you missed my point. Of course it can be called the pound. I'm referring to complete separation from BOE

[BawWatchin]

12 minutes ago, John Lambies Doos said:

2 hours ago, BawWatchin said:

National bank, national currency. If we're not allowed to call it the pound, then somebody should warn those Canadians that they're bordering a country who also uses the dollar.

Eh ... Think you missed my point. Of course it can be called the pound. I'm referring to complete separation from BOE

There would be no such thing. Almost every bank around the world is linked through the central banking system.  Unless of course we decided not to be a part of that system, in which case, we'd have US tanks on top of the British tanks to contend with.

[John Lambies Doos]

There would be no such thing. Almost every bank around the world is linked through the central banking system.  Unless of course we decided not to be a part of that system, in which case, we'd have US tanks on top of the British tanks to contend with.

Again, you know what I mean

[BawWatchin]

3 minutes ago, John Lambies Doos said:

32 minutes ago, BawWatchin said:

There would be no such thing. Almost every bank around the world is linked through the central banking system.  Unless of course we decided not to be a part of that system, in which case, we'd have US tanks on top of the British tanks to contend with.

Again, you know what I mean

Nice cop out. Act like you think I know what you mean, so you don't have to bother explaining something that you can't explain, because you didn't know what you meant yourself.

[John Lambies Doos]

Nice cop out. Act like you think I know what you mean, so you don't have to bother explaining something that you can't explain, because you didn't know what you meant yourself.

I know exactly what you mean and you likewise. However you're labouring a very tedious point for no apparent reason. It's Granny Dangeresque!