When will indyref2 happen?

[Colkitto]

On ‎15‎/‎11‎/‎2018 at 22:02, Colkitto said:

I don't believe she is. Shes is quite rightly sticking to what she has said from the beginning on the timing. 

We don't know where this Brexit turmoil is going and what will happen. But time is running out for Nicola too - that's why I believe she will call indyref2 before the end of the year or January 2019 at the latest

 

To be fair I did say January 2019 in my original prediction 

 

Fully expect S30 not to be agreed at Westminster. Opens up a whole new  ball game if they don't agree.

Maybe in a perfect world Nicola wouldn't be calling this for another 2 to 3 years, but she doesn't have a choice but to call it now in my opinion.

Once she does call it I'll guarantee you right here and now that Scotland will NEVER be the same again.. 

[renton]

3 minutes ago, Colkitto said:

To be fair I did say January 2019 in my original prediction 

 

Fully expect S30 not to be agreed at Westminster. Opens up a whole new  ball game if they don't agree.

Maybe in a perfect world Nicola wouldn't be calling this for another 2 to 3 years, but she doesn't have a choice but to call it now in my opinion.

Once she does call it I'll guarantee you right here and now that Scotland will NEVER be the same again.. 

What happens if, in the event of May's Brexit deal failing, some kind of Norway style deal comes up in parliament. It's probably have enough support to pass, and would certainly have to be supported  by the SNP (it's what they've wanted all along). So, the UK stays in a single market, customs Union type arrangement - based on no small part by the politicking of the SNP who've been consistently calling for this for two years. Kinda takes the sting out of Brexit, and probably sinks a 2nd referendum in the near term, no?

[Colkitto]

10 minutes ago, renton said:

What happens if, in the event of May's Brexit deal failing, some kind of Norway style deal comes up in parliament. It's probably have enough support to pass, and would certainly have to be supported  by the SNP (it's what they've wanted all along). So, the UK stays in a single market, customs Union type arrangement - based on no small part by the politicking of the SNP who've been consistently calling for this for two years. Kinda takes the sting out of Brexit, and probably sinks a 2nd referendum in the near term, no?

I personally don't see that scenario arising. In fact I'm struggling to see what deal will get parliamentary approval such are the factions within the Commons.

If May cannot get this deal through on the 11th December I've no idea what's going to happen after that. That's why Nicola won't call indyref2 before then.

I would now say she knows she cannot do anything other than to call it soon. What happens after that is anyone's guess.... 

[renton]

1 hour ago, Colkitto said:

I personally don't see that scenario arising. In fact I'm struggling to see what deal will get parliamentary approval such are the factions within the Commons.

If May cannot get this deal through on the 11th December I've no idea what's going to happen after that. That's why Nicola won't call indyref2 before then.

I would now say she knows she cannot do anything other than to call it soon. What happens after that is anyone's guess.... 

I think you could, the non hard Brexit part of the Tory party - which is still the majority of the parliamentary party when you include all the various government ministers - would swing behind it in order to stop a complete implosion of government. That's 223 right there (316 minus the Guardian's reported 93 rebels), SNP, Plaid, Greens and LD all vote for it so that's another 52, so that's 275, leaving you to find 50 odd pro- single market, pro-freedom of movement MPs from Labour. That feels doable. Indeed you'd only need 125 odd Yes votes from both major parties given how the smaller parties would vote for a Norway option. Half of the Labour party and a third of the Tories. 

[Colkitto]

27 minutes ago, renton said:

I think you could, the non hard Brexit part of the Tory party - which is still the majority of the parliamentary party when you include all the various government ministers - would swing behind it in order to stop a complete implosion of government. That's 223 right there (316 minus the Guardian's reported 93 rebels), SNP, Plaid, Greens and LD all vote for it so that's another 52, so that's 275, leaving you to find 50 odd pro- single market, pro-freedom of movement MPs from Labour. That feels doable. Indeed you'd only need 125 odd Yes votes from both major parties given how the smaller parties would vote for a Norway option. Half of the Labour party and a third of the Tories. 

Who would propose it in parliament? Won't be Corbyn or May. Can't see it getting anywhere unless you had a change of leadership in either the Tory or Labour party.

[welshbairn]

32 minutes ago, renton said:

I think you could, the non hard Brexit part of the Tory party - which is still the majority of the parliamentary party when you include all the various government ministers - would swing behind it in order to stop a complete implosion of government. That's 223 right there (316 minus the Guardian's reported 93 rebels), SNP, Plaid, Greens and LD all vote for it so that's another 52, so that's 275, leaving you to find 50 odd pro- single market, pro-freedom of movement MPs from Labour. That feels doable. Indeed you'd only need 125 odd Yes votes from both major parties given how the smaller parties would vote for a Norway option. Half of the Labour party and a third of the Tories. 

I think you're right about Norway, with fish and ag out like them, a jazzed up version of Cameron's deal on freedom of movement and some token representation in Brussels to make out we're not rule takers. There's no point of pandering to the hardcore Brexiteers, they won't be happy with anything but WTO which will never pass a vote. Either that or a General Election when all bets are off.

Edited November 28, 2018 by welshbairn

[renton]

2 minutes ago, Colkitto said:

Who would propose it in parliament? Won't be Corbyn or May. Can't see it getting anywhere unless you had a change of leadership in either the Tory or Labour party.

If May's deal goes south, then what choice has she but to propose it? Probably her only means of hanging on to power.

[Colkitto]

 

1 minute ago, renton said:

If May's deal goes south, then what choice has she but to propose it? Probably her only means of hanging on to power.

She will not get Cabinet backing for this. You're talking about most of the Cabinet resigning to get anywhere near this scenario

[welshbairn]

1 minute ago, Colkitto said:

 

She will not get Cabinet backing for this. You're talking about most of the Cabinet resigning to get anywhere near this scenario

Not sure how many hard Brexiteers there are left.

[Granny Danger]

Of all the scenarios the only one I would put money on is that there will be no Hard Brexit.  That is why the binary choice still being pedalled by the media is so misleading.

A Norway style deal will make heads explode but I can see it happening (and will enjoy the exploding heads).

Sturgeon might take some flack but unlike others she is putting the country first and I think she and the SNP will emerge from this with a huge amount of plaudits.

 

[renton]

36 minutes ago, Colkitto said:

 

She will not get Cabinet backing for this. You're talking about most of the Cabinet resigning to get anywhere near this scenario

I think she might, the Cabinet skews pro remain. The likes of Hammond would jump at the chance of this, while folk like Gove have already shown they won't push the boat for Hard Brexit. Faced with the annihilation of their party and government I think there are a few who would be Brexit in name only to get the Norway option up there, and I don't think Labour would be able to whip against to prevent their own MPs voting for it. 

 

[Colkitto]

5 minutes ago, renton said:

I think she might, the Cabinet skews pro remain. The likes of Hammond would jump at the chance of this, while folk like Gove have already shown they won't push the boat for Hard Brexit. Faced with the annihilation of their party and government I think there are a few who would be Brexit in name only to get the Norway option up there, and I don't think Labour would be able to whip against to prevent their own MPs voting for it. 

 

Well, as I say, who knows what will happen after the vote on the 11th December. I don't see May as leader if the Tories do go down this path. Maybe Hammond? 

Suppose you can't rule anything in or out......

[renton]

5 minutes ago, Colkitto said:

Well, as I say, who knows what will happen after the vote on the 11th December. I don't see May as leader if the Tories do go down this path. Maybe Hammond? 

Suppose you can't rule anything in or out......

I imagine if the vote goes as everyone expects it to, the ERG will make a fresh move to depose her. If nothing else that will further push May and the Remainers further towards a Norway style deal. 

[Colkitto]

55 minutes ago, renton said:

I imagine if the vote goes as everyone expects it to, the ERG will make a fresh move to depose her. If nothing else that will further push May and the Remainers further towards a Norway style deal. 

You are realistically looking at January 2019 before either May or A.N.Other leader can start to implement this plan. We leave the EU in March 2019. 

Look how long it's taken with negotiations to get to this point in time. I believe it will cost the UK £10b a month to extend their stay in the EU after March. 

Financially it's a huge problem too

[welshbairn]

1 hour ago, Colkitto said:

You are realistically looking at January 2019 before either May or A.N.Other leader can start to implement this plan. We leave the EU in March 2019. 

Look how long it's taken with negotiations to get to this point in time. I believe it will cost the UK £10b a month to extend their stay in the EU after March. 

Financially it's a huge problem too

We'd just keep paying the same as we are now if we extend Article 50. So under £10 bn per year net.

[Colkitto]

2 hours ago, welshbairn said:

We'd just keep paying the same as we are now if we extend Article 50. So under £10 bn per year net.

My mistake, £10bn a year

[John Lambies Doos]

The Norway option means accepting freedom of movement. This one will never grow legs I'm afraid

[sparky88]

On 27/11/2018 at 20:45, Colkitto said:

Okay, need to revise my before Xmas prediction of the indyref2 announcement since that daft bint May is not having the vote in the Commons until 11th December.
 

New prediction of January! Get it in your diary!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 

On the basis of this, next month's rent has gone on this bet. I presume you have a good track record of predicting when there will be a second independence refefendum?

[Loondave1]

On the basis of this, next month's rent has gone on this bet. I presume you have a good track record of predicting when there will be a second independence refefendum?

He does. Basically predicts it will be an unspecified month in the future. How can it be wrong ?

[Highlandmagyar 2nd Tier]

There is so much uncertainty for Sturgeon this issue.

If the deal on brexit is defeated on Dec 11th then we face a real prospect of a General Election  in the new year. I wouldn't imagine she would announce a referendum until that is over. If by any chance Corbyn gains a majority and is PM then it could well blunt a Nationalist push for a new vote on independence. A left wing Corbyn government would be palatable to the wider Scottish electorate and if that government have any sense about them ,then they will empower Holyrodd with more control over more of Scotland's affairs. Of course, even if Labour win then there is the Brexit conundrum. 

The only way I see Labour getting a new perspective on the Brexit question is to hold a new referendum on it. If we still vote to come out we have to swallow it. If we change our minds then re-negotiations to re-enter Euroland.

Meanwhile during the negotiations we maintain the status quo on Europe. All of this of course would delay any independence referendum.