When will indyref2 happen?

[lichtgilphead]

4 minutes ago, MixuFixit said:

Surely channel tunnel freight is capable of so much more volume than ferries.

Nope.

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/port-freight-statistics-2016-final-figures 

"Ports are essential to the UK economy, with around 95% of all imports and exports being transported by sea."

Total for 2016 = 484.0 million tonnes

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Channel_Tunnel#Freight_traffic_volumes

Total for 2016 = 22.55 million tonnes

[lichtgilphead]

To be fair, I'm including container ships as well as ferries in the imort/export figures.

However, I don't see why it will cost more for a container ship from (say) New York to dock in Glasgow instead of Liverpool. 

New York - Glasgow ~5200 km

New York - Liverpool ~5300 km

Scotland must be too wee/poor/stupid for ships to dock here

[welshbairn]

12 minutes ago, lichtgilphead said:

To be fair, I'm including container ships as well as ferries in the imort/export figures.

However, I don't see why it will cost more for a container ship from (say) New York to dock in Glasgow instead of Liverpool. 

New York - Glasgow ~5200 km

New York - Liverpool ~5300 km

Scotland must be too wee/poor/stupid for ships to dock here

What about Rotterdam to Harwich and all the infrastructure it would cost to replicate it at Rothsyth? 

[lichtgilphead]

1 hour ago, welshbairn said:

And then add all the infrastructure costs to pay for an entirely new import/export model.

Scottish Ports handle more freight than you might think.

At a quick glance, the latest figures I can find date from 2012. 

https://www.transport.gov.scot/media/14375/scottish-freight-data-report-2013.pdf

Foreign Imports/Exports ~ 48,300,000 tonnes (plus 24,500,000 tonnes of domestic inward/outward trade, most of which will go to rUK)

48.3 million tonnes is just a little under 10% of the total 484 million tonnes imported and exported from the UK, isn't it?

Edited November 9, 2018 by lichtgilphead
to clarify that UK figure relates to both imports & exports

[lichtgilphead]

5 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

What about Rotterdam to Harwich and all the infrastructure it would cost to replicate it at Rothsyth? 

We already have the necessary infrastructure at Scottish ports. UK customs use it. 

I suppose we'll have to buy the staff new uniforms.

I also note that you've ignored all costs & time in transporting the goods from Dover or Harwich to Edinburgh (again). I can't eat an imported banana that has arrived  at a port in SE England

[lichtgilphead]

12 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

I suggest you take a quick look at Google Maps and compare the Scottish port of your choosing with Rotterdam or Immingham.

Why not compare Rotterdam to Shanghai? What is your point?

Are you suggesting that ships from Rotterdam or Immingham cannot physically fit into Scottish ports?

[welshbairn]

6 minutes ago, lichtgilphead said:

Why not compare Rotterdam to Shanghai? What is your point?

Are you suggesting that ships from Rotterdam or Immingham cannot physically fit into Scottish ports?

I'm suggesting that Scottish ports wouldn't have the capacity to deal with all the trade that is currently transported through England by lorry and train, without a massive investment and a total pain in the arse to Scottish businesses. I'd like Scotland to be independent, but with a practical solution.

[lichtgilphead]

Why not base your argument on whether or not there is current spare capacity at Scottish ports then? 

The latest figures I provided related to 2012. That was a poor year (48,300,000 tonnes plus a further 24,500,000 tonnes to/from rUK)

In 2000, Scottish ports had 84,000,000 tonnes of imports & exports plus a further 43,000,000 tonnes to/from rUK 

I have no idea what percentage of total capacity that represents, but these numbers show that at worst, we can  nearly double the 2012 figures without increasing capacity.

I'll also mention customs seals again. That would still allow road and eurotunnel rail traffic to avoid any customs checks when goods transit over hard borders between EU-rUK-EU

[git-intae-thum]

21 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

I'm suggesting that Scottish ports wouldn't have the capacity to deal with all the trade that is currently transported through England by lorry and train, without a massive investment and a total pain in the arse to Scottish businesses. I'd like Scotland to be independent, but with a practical solution.

 

There are several Methil dock type places along the East coast that have been sitting mothballed for too long.

New trade links would economically transform the communities that used to work these docks.

We would not be starting from scratch.

Further.....when we rejoin the eu, I am sure they would be keen to provide support for the infrastructure needed for trade within the union.

This could be a big boost for places up and down the East coast.

Incidentally.....I do wonder why our sea links with the continent have been allowed to rot.

[Highlandmagyar 2nd Tier]

Would the EU accept an independent Scotland? If so. Why?

[git-intae-thum]

Obviously no one can predict the future...but:

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.scotsman.com/news/eu-negotiator-simple-fact-independent-scotland-could-join-eu-1-4757519/amp

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/scotland-could-rejoin-eu-two-years-after-independence-8mrxcvmbp

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/10/independent-scotland-would-be-welcome-to-join-eu-say-green-meps

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-39507794

https://m.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/spain-not-block-scotland-eu_uk_58e152dce4b0b3918c8463ed

 

[thisal]

On 11/8/2018 at 10:03, MixuFixit said:

The other morbid factor is... well... morbidity.

No/Leave voters are in general older than Yes/Remain & with each year that passes more of them die.

 16-24 voted no. So that cancels that out.

[renton]

14 minutes ago, thisal said:

 16-24 voted no. So that cancels that out.

Don't think so, Henderson's Edinburgh University study had 16-19 year olds for yes by 65/35.  For 20-24 it was a much closer affair 52/48.  I reckon if you broke that down to the age group 18-21 you might well see a spike towards No, given that group would then include large numbers of other UK born and EU born students (the latter group of which by now would either by for yes, or not allowed to vote)

http://centreonconstitutionalchange.ac.uk/sites/default/files/Scottish Referendum Study 27 March 2015.pdf

[renton]

12 minutes ago, MixuFixit said:

That'd make the assumption that this cohort will not alter their views as they age, when the next cohort up voted yes.

That's an equally valid criticism of my point, as people age and acquire property and pension investments they vote to protect those.

Complicated innit.

I've made this point several times in the past but for me the startling thing is how the % No vote kept going up from one demographic to the next, even after reaching the maximum level of risk exposure in terms of property ownership and pensions. As if age itself was a driving motivator, rather than just a point you reach once you've got money, bricks and mortar to worry about. 

My theory, such as it is, is that your identification with one nationality over the other - and hence your sympathy or otherwise for Scottish independence - is a key driver. The older you are, the closer you are to that generation that fought the last war, to peak Unionism in the -55 election, to a time when Scotland genuinely was referred to as North Britain. Then you've got that seismic shift post 1979 where de-industrialisation probably did more to break some implicit bonds of trust between Scotland and the UK government (ironically led by the Labour party in Scotland). Then of course devolution in '97.

If you were born after 1997, the idea of Scotland having two governments is commonplace, and the idea that the Scottish government can and should speak it's own mind is fairly normal now as well (after the first few years of proper vassal like behaviour). Indy Ref 1 did a great deal to make the idea of Scottish self government a mainstream idea as well. That all plays into the experiences and outlook of those coming up now. 

It was never as simple as owning things makes you more right wing anyway. It was always at least partly a result of the social conservative streak in generations which felt the Labour party had moved to the liberal viewpoint and left them behind, as much as it was wanting a tax break on the 2nd property. 

Edited November 9, 2018 by renton

[welshbairn]

4 minutes ago, renton said:

I've made this point several times in the past but for me the startling thing is how the % No vote kept going up from one demographic to the next, even after reaching the maximum level of risk exposure in terms of property ownership and pensions. As if age itself was a driving motivator, rather than just a point you reach once you've got money, bricks and mortar to worry about. 

My theory, such as it is, is that your identification with one nationality over the other - and hence your sympathy or otherwise for Scottish independence - is a key driver. The older you are, the closer you are to that generation that fought the last war, to peak Unionism in the -55 election, to a time when Scotland genuinely was referred to as North Britain. Then you've got that seismic shift post 1979 where de-industrialisation probably did more to break some implicit bonds of trust between Scotland and the UK government (ironically led by the Labour party in Scotland). Then of course devolution in '97.

If you were born after 1997, the idea of Scotland having two governments is commonplace, and the idea that the Scottish government can and should speak it's own mind is fairly normal now as well (after the first few years of proper vassal like behaviour). Indy Ref 1 did a great deal to make the idea of Scottish self government a mainstream idea as well. That all plays into the experiences and outlook of those coming up now. 

It was never as simple as owning things makes you more right wing anyway. It was always at least partly a result of the social conservative streak in generations which felt the Labour party had moved to the liberal viewpoint and left them behind, as much as it was wanting a tax break on the 2nd property. 

Quite. The old wouldn't have voted for Brexit if their main concern was stability and financial security. Surprising that those with memories or family connections with WW2 didn't appreciate the peace and cooperation in Europe that the EU has helped foster.

Edited November 9, 2018 by welshbairn

[DeeTillEhDeh]

We already have the necessary infrastructure at Scottish ports. UK customs use it. 
I suppose we'll have to buy the staff new uniforms.
I also note that you've ignored all costs & time in transporting the goods from Dover or Harwich to Edinburgh (again). I can't eat an imported banana that has arrived  at a port in SE England

£10 million invested at the Port of Dundee creating a new 200m-long quay that will connect to Prince Charles Wharf from the east end of the port.

The facility will have heavy-lift capabilities along its length to allow for activities such as offshore anchor and chain servicing and maintenance operations.

There will also be a specific ultra-heavy lift pad at one end capable of dealing with major infrastructure.

A total of 60 acres of hard-standing and warehousing have also been set aside to support onshore operations.

[DublinMagyar]

£10 million invested at the Port of Dundee creating a new 200m-long quay that will connect to Prince Charles Wharf from the east end of the port.

The facility will have heavy-lift capabilities along its length to allow for activities such as offshore anchor and chain servicing and maintenance operations.

There will also be a specific ultra-heavy lift pad at one end capable of dealing with major infrastructure.

A total of 60 acres of hard-standing and warehousing have also been set aside to support onshore operations.

So, do they need any tyres?

[Slavoj Žižek]

How's this coming along:

Tories fault tbh.

[Joey Jo Jo Junior Shabadoo]

3 minutes ago, Slavoj Žižek said:

How's this coming along:

Tories fault tbh.

You're not wrong. The Tories could have voted that policy through, but didn't.

[Bring Your Own Socks]

There are many around at the moment but here's another lesser known one of the UK Government's intent for Scotland. At a time when many businesses can't decide whether to invest or not Westminster is on track for another "regional hub".

http://www.bam.co.uk/media-centre/news-details/bam-s-commercial-property-development-at-atlantic-square-gets-underway