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When will indyref2 happen?


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Indyref2  

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1 hour ago, welshbairn said:

What do you mean? The poll was done in 2016 on what people thought they'd think in 2018?

The changes in support are being compared with a previous poll which was carried out in 2016. F*ck knows why.

Perhaps Philyerpants can tell us why this is relevant?

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1 minute ago, lichtgilphead said:

The changes in support are being compared with a previous poll which was carried out in 2016. F*ck knows why.

Perhaps Philyerpants can tell us why this is relevant?

If SNP support has dropped 10% since 2016 I'd say that's pretty fucking worrying. Am I missing something?

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1 minute ago, welshbairn said:

If SNP support has dropped 10% since 2016 I'd say that's pretty fucking worrying. Am I missing something?

I'm no polling expert, but I would suggest that you would find that the 2016 poll that is being used for comparison would be the high polling point for the SNP in the last millenium or so and as such is likely to be an outlier. 

The last survation poll I can find (July 2018) gave the following results on the regional list

SNP 33%, LAB 21%, CON 19%, LDEM 10%, GREEN 11%, UKIP 5%

When you compare this week's poll with that, you get

SNP -1%, CON +4%, LAB +2%, LDEM -1%, GREEN -2%, UKIP ?

It appears that the UKIP vote has returned to Lab/Con. F*cking wow! The rest is just margin of error noise.

 

 

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Tbf though couple of serious points raised here that folk would do well to take notice of. 

SNP does seem to be a little bit directionless atm. I as an independence supporter would really like to see them make hard and fast on a lot of issues that they get attacked for. 

They seem to sit back and rely on support quite often. Aye the media etc is stacked against them but with a little bit more effort in reaching to people outside the usual channels they could up their game and take the fight back to the yoons. 

All to often major issues get used as sticks to beat them with. Issues which they could easily counter with a bit of nous. 

Too much softly softly going on just now. 

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The issue may well be that the SNP is trying too hard to please everyone and will end up pleasing no one. Its the way it has to be though.

Having more pro indy parties across the spectrum sound nice in principle. However the reality is it would split the indy vote and give a chance to a blue and red tory horror pact at Holyrood:shutup

F@ck that.

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On 11/2/2018 at 20:53, lichtgilphead said:

The changes in support are being compared with a previous poll which was carried out in 2016. F*ck knows why.

Perhaps Philyerpants can tell us why this is relevant?

The comparison is (obviously) with the actual election in 2016 not a poll.

 

 

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Survation poll due out shortly that has Independance option in the lead as a result of Brexit. That’s a couple now, which is good.
Hopefully gives Nicola a bit of confidence moving forward.


This must be the one George Kerevan tweeted about.

The **** and Yoons replying to them are an embarrassment as per usual.
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33 minutes ago, G-MAN said:

 


This must be the one George Kerevan tweeted about.

The **** and Yoons replying to them are an embarrassment as per usual.

 

Yeh that’s the same one i think.

For those interested, breakdown below;

 

Survation poll prepared on behalf of Renegade Productions
Fieldwork Dates: 20th October – 2nd November
Full sample size: 20,090
Total respondents Scotland: 1,725

Independence
Based on recall of how respondents voted in the 2014 independence referendum, this would give a notional result on independence as below:
  Total 2014 Scottish Referendum Vote
  Yes No DNV
Unweighted total 1725 697 759 269
Weighted total 1612 637 713 262
         
Much more likely 420 310 57 53
A little more likely 190 82 65 43
Neither more nor less likely 493 130 291 72
A little less likely 72 23 23 26
Much less likely 337 65 244 28
Don’t know 100 28 33 39
         
Sample Totals   740 700  
%   51.39% 48.61%  

EU Membership
Weighted Scottish figures with don’t knows / refused removed would give the following result on the question “Imagine there was a referendum tomorrow with the question “Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?” How would you vote?”
Remain 64.74%
Leave 35.26%

Westminster Voting Intention
SNP 512 39.8%
Conservative 344 26.8%
Labour 276 21.5%
LibDem 106 8.2%
Green 23 1.8%
UKIP 16 1.2%
Other 8 0.6%

Jeremy Corbyn
Q9. Imagine each of the following was Prime Minister rather than Theresa May
Do you think they would have handled the Brexit negotiations better than Mrs May, worse than Mrs May, or would it not have made any difference?:Jeremy Corbyn
Better: 26.5%
Worse: 46.35%
No difference: 27.08%
(Scottish sample of 1,622 with don’t knows removed)

The Economy
Q15. Do you think Brexit will be good, bad or make no difference to each the following?:The UK economy
Good: 21.01%
Bad: 53.76%
No difference: 13.03%
Don’t know: 12.2%
(Scottish sample of 1,622)

NHS
Q15. Do you think Brexit will be good, bad or make no difference to each the following?: The NHS
Good: 19.18%
Bad: 43.83%
No difference: 24.81%
Don’t know: 12.19%
(Scottish sample of 1,622)

Household finances
Q15. Do you think Brexit will be good, bad or make no difference to each the following?: Your household finances
Good: 10.99%
Bad: 45.28%
No difference: 30.14%
Don’t know: 13.58%
(Scottish sample of 1,622) 
 
Edited by Londonwell
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All Labour have left are strikes, strikes, strikes in some weird attempt to the ill informed out there that they are “for the many” [emoji23][emoji23][emoji23][emoji23]

They are a fucking shambles.

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12 hours ago, philyerboots said:

 

Reality bites

 

45408419_2216245648434413_6581770586341507072_n.jpg

Sorry to piss on your parade... or actually I'm cock a hoop. Survation back up the SNP tweets:

Majority for Indy. It's moving our way.

 

Edited by Crùbag
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