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When will indyref2 happen?


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Indyref2  

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12 hours ago, ThatBoyRonaldo said:

You've also got the issue that the Tories are quite clearly not going to give the legal permission for a second referendum any time soon - at the very least we are going to have to fight an election on the specific question of "give us a mandate to hold a second referendum" before they budge on that, and even then there's no guarantee they would. May et al will have viewed their policy of "now is not the time" as basically successful at this point, given support for independence is basically the same as it's ever been since the referendum. Corbyn's Labour similarly won't grant the permission, and any attempt by the SNP to make it a condition of supporting a Corbyn UK government will be rejected - the message will be 'let the Tories back in if you dare'.

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I'm not convinced tbh.

Corbyn has been very neutral sounding on the actual granting of a referendum and went as far as even saying he'd not oppose it if it was brought forward in this parliament and the Scottish Government legislated on it.  May has come out with this 'now is not the time' line but when pushed to qualify it, it has been specified as this parliamentary term.

I suspect that legal permission will be granted if the Scottish elections in 2021 do return a pro-independence majority. That looks likely at the current moment but it is a long time away in political terms.

I think the level of opposition to Scottish Independence at Westminster is pretty weak tbh. During the oil boom, revenues were a really important financial boost with the tax revenue they brought and I think that opposition to independence was a bit more militant. Now that those revenues have declined, the biggest practical interest to keeping Scotland is just really because it's there and integrated into the economy. I suspect independence will be an inconvenience for the establishment but at least it'd take away the rowdy politicians and give them more control. The one thing the EU referendum has shown is that 'unionists' don't really care much about the union.

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2 hours ago, harry94 said:

I'm not convinced tbh.

Corbyn has been very neutral sounding on the actual granting of a referendum and went as far as even saying he'd not oppose it if it was brought forward in this parliament and the Scottish Government legislated on it.  May has come out with this 'now is not the time' line but when pushed to qualify it, it has been specified as this parliamentary term.

I suspect that legal permission will be granted if the Scottish elections in 2021 do return a pro-independence majority. That looks likely at the current moment but it is a long time away in political terms.

I think the level of opposition to Scottish Independence at Westminster is pretty weak tbh. During the oil boom, revenues were a really important financial boost with the tax revenue they brought and I think that opposition to independence was a bit more militant. Now that those revenues have declined, the biggest practical interest to keeping Scotland is just really because it's there and integrated into the economy. I suspect independence will be an inconvenience for the establishment but at least it'd take away the rowdy politicians and give them more control. The one thing the EU referendum has shown is that 'unionists' don't really care much about the union.

The reason Corbyn is being "neutral" on it, is because he doesn't want to lose the few votes he'll continue to get in Scotland from both unionists and independence supporters. It's merely another political calculation like everything else.

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On 11/10/2018 at 13:57, BawWatchin said:

The reason Corbyn is being "neutral" on it, is because he doesn't want to lose the few votes he'll continue to get in Scotland from both unionists and independence supporters. It's merely another political calculation like everything else.

My take is - Corbyn is more progressive than most people. Corbyn represents the most amount of change of any political figure anywhere near power in a long time.

I reckon Corbyn would not mind losing Commonwealth, UK, and everything else, including the EU. Like everything, nato, the lot.

New relationships with everybody, and everything.

If Corbyn gets to be in power, Scottish Nationalists could have a easier path to win a referendum on Scottish Indy. 

Edited by Jambo99
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10 minutes ago, Jambo99 said:

My take is - Corbyn is more progressive than most people. Corbyn represents the most amount of change of any political figure anywhere near power in a long time.

I reckon Corbyn would not mind losing Commonwealth, UK, and everything else, including the EU. Like everything, nato, the lot.

New relationships with everybody, and everything.

If Corbyn gets to be in power, Scottish Nationalists could have a easier path to win a referendum on Scottish Indy. 

If Corbyn becomes prime minister, we'll have a disfunctional government which will trigger another election. Any radical policies he attempts to push through will be voted down, not just by opposition parties, but by his own back benchers as well. If he can't control them out of government, what hope does he have of controlling them in government?

 

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11 minutes ago, BawWatchin said:

If Corbyn becomes prime minister, we'll have a disfunctional government which will trigger another election. Any radical policies he attempts to push through will be voted down, not just by opposition parties, but by his own back benchers as well. If he can't control them out of government, what hope does he have of controlling them in government?

 

You are not thinking like a 21st century person here.

All that old style certainty is guff. 

Corbyn represents the biggest change to everything a big party has offered in a long time. 

(this is why Nicola and pro-scot-nationalists are dying a death, they might have been on the cutting edge of real change, but they are not that now)

Edited by Jambo99
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You are not thinking like a 21st century person here.
All that old style certainty is guff. 
Corbyn represents the biggest change to everything a big party has offered in a long time. 
(this is why Nicola and pro-scot-nationalists are dying a death, they might have been on the cutting edge of real change, but they are not that now)


[emoji15]

You on the wind up or pished?
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12 minutes ago, Jambo99 said:

You are not thinking like a 21st century person here.

All that old style certainty is guff. 

Corbyn represents the biggest change to everything a big party has offered in a long time. 

(this is why Nicola and pro-scot-nationalists are dying a death, they might have been on the cutting edge of real change, but they are not that now)

Old style certainty? Nah, it's just certainty mate.

It's quite clear that he has no control of them out of government. So i'm not sure what gives you the idea that he'd suddenly have the control over them he'd require if he was in government.

The 21st century person isn't thinking about socialism. Been there, tried that. Failed. The 21st century person is thinking about themselves and their families and what they can do to get ahead of the rest.

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2 minutes ago, BawWatchin said:

Old style certainty? Nah, it's just certainty mate.

It's quite clear that he has no control of them out of government. So i'm not sure what gives you the idea that he'd suddenly have the control over them he'd require if he was in government.

The 21st century person isn't thinking about socialism. Been there, tried that. Failed. The 21st century person is thinking about themselves and their families and what they can do to get ahead of the rest.

like I said, you are not thinking like a 21st Century person. 

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