When will indyref2 happen?

[SweeperDee]

Basically static. The only thing that is going to move this either way is an actual campaign.

DK’s and 16-17 y/o not included so I reckon it could actually be even closer.

[renton]

Just now, SweeperDee said:

 

DK’s and 16-17 y/o not included so I reckon it could actually be even closer.

 

16-17s might be worth a point, but that's it. It's no shame, and the resilience of the Yes vote is a great base, but we will not move those polls without a campaign now, and voices who would counsel waiting until the polls swing decisively our way are going to be waiting a very long time.

[NotThePars]

Thank f@ck. They are oot. We can now relax and enjoy the rest of the fitba and get the politics forum back on track.
When is sturgeon calling it?

We’d have had a UDI if England had went through and beat France on Sunday.

[Colkitto]

16 minutes ago, renton said:

16-17s might be worth a point, but that's it. It's no shame, and the resilience of the Yes vote is a great base, but we will not move those polls without a campaign now, and voices who would counsel waiting until the polls swing decisively our way are going to be waiting a very long time.

It's time to start talking about independence in earnest. I know we have had a Growth Report and the SNP are organizing National Assemblies over the Summer, but it still seems a slow build up to indyref2.

After the Summer recess of both Holyrood and Westminster are over we really should be pushing for independence and start showing the public why we desperately need to go on our own as an independent country in the EU. 

As you say, only a campaign is going to start shifting those numbers now   

[Double Jack D]

I hhaven't noted a change of opinion yet amongst the No voters I know, however I have noted a huge softening in the opposition to a second indyref. There is no doubt the playing out of Brexit is key here.

A hard brexit or a coup of the Tory Govt by Rees-Mogg/ Johnson/ Gove etc and Sturgeon should call a Ref at short notice and Yes would win at a canter.

A soft Brexit deal and/ or a Corbyn Govt and I doubt she'll go for it.

[sparky88]

3 hours ago, Double Jack D said:

I hhaven't noted a change of opinion yet amongst the No voters I know, however I have noted a huge softening in the opposition to a second indyref. There is no doubt the playing out of Brexit is key here.

A hard brexit or a coup of the Tory Govt by Rees-Mogg/ Johnson/ Gove etc and Sturgeon should call a Ref at short notice and Yes would win at a canter.

A soft Brexit deal and/ or a Corbyn Govt and I doubt she'll go for it.

Double Jack D's pals - the real barometer of public opinion.

Loads of situations have been cited as turning points for yes being able to win. the only thing that will persuade Sturgeon to call a referendum is a consistent Yes lead in the polls. She will only even mention a referendum taking place after one poll in favour of Yes. 

I suppose if it gets to the end of the Scottish Parliament term and polls are within the margin of error she might call one, knowing that there might not be a majority for independence in the next parliament.

Edited July 12, 2018 by sparky88

[Highlandmagyar 2nd Tier]

I believe the Scottish government will hang fire on a new referendum until either brexit completely unravels or a Tory victory at the next GE. 

[Double Jack D]

18 hours ago, sparky88 said:

Double Jack D's pals - the real barometer of public opinion.

Loads of situations have been cited as turning points for yes being able to win. the only thing that will persuade Sturgeon to call a referendum is a consistent Yes lead in the polls. She will only even mention a referendum taking place after one poll in favour of Yes. 

I suppose if it gets to the end of the Scottish Parliament term and polls are within the margin of error she might call one, knowing that there might not be a majority for independence in the next parliament.

I can only form my opinion on who I speak to chap. Not claiming it a barometer of public opinion, only offering my own.

I agree with you regarding the timing coinciding with Yes polling. Confirmation of a hard brexit or a change in PM to Gove/ Johnson / Rees-Mogg would see an overnight leap in the polling for a Yes vote and hence the immediate calling of indyref2. 

Given you'd have to be a complete fruitloop to vote No in either scenario I'd be hugely confident of a Yes win.

[Leggy Blonde]

To add in my own recent anecdotal experience, my staunch unionist mother just declared that if BoJo ever becomes PM, she'd back independence. f**k knows why that would be the final straw for her, considering the current state of affairs   

I'm still a little skeptical whether she would actually vote yes, if or when the moment comes, but that's a hell of a softening from someone who wouldn't even entertain talking about independence a few years ago. 

[Gaz FFC]

My mum changed from no to yes before Xmas 2014.

I also have 2 pals who voted no but now know the error of their ways.

On top of this I know 2 no voters who moved abroad 4 months after the referendum and wouldn't be able to vote no again.

so 5 down for no and 3 up for Yes  

[Gaz FFC]

In the event of a yes vote what do we reckon most of these no voters would do?

I know many who are a seething mess whenever the SNP and Nicola are mentioned it really is hard to see them not combusting.

I certainly would very much enjoy finding out.

[Granny Danger]

I do not think another vote at this time would result in a majority for Independence.

 

[John Lambies Doos]

I do not think another vote at this time would result in a majority for Independence.

 

Aye but you are a glass empty kinda guy

 

[Granny Danger]

Just now, John Lambies Doos said:

9 minutes ago, Granny Danger said:

I do not think another vote at this time would result in a majority for Independence.
 

Aye but your a glass empty kinda guy

And you're an arsehole.

 

Edited July 13, 2018 by Granny Danger

[John Lambies Doos]

And you're an arsehole.
 

Typical aggressive GD response. Wait and wait and wait, until the chance is gone.

[Peppino Impastato]

9 minutes ago, John Lambies Doos said:

32 minutes ago, Granny Danger said:

And you're an arsehole.
 

Typical aggressive GD response. Wait and wait and wait, until the chance is gone.

He's just a fanny don't worry about it

[mjw]

He's just a fanny don't worry about it

Holy f**k!

[Granny Danger]

1 hour ago, John Lambies Doos said:

2 hours ago, Granny Danger said:

And you're an arsehole.
 

Typical aggressive GD response. Wait and wait and wait, until the chance is gone.

Yes it’s my response to stupidity.

You and I would like an Independent Scotland.  Sadly there is absolutely no evidence to suggest another referendum in the near future would result in a YES vote.  Something profound may happen to change that; I hope it does.

Meanwhile I won’t confuse what I want with what is likely to be acheiveable.

 

[Peppino Impastato]

53 minutes ago, Granny Danger said:

Yes it’s my response to stupidity.

You and I would like an Independent Scotland.  Sadly there is absolutely no evidence to suggest another referendum in the near future would result in a YES vote.  Something profound may happen to change that; I hope it does.

Meanwhile I won’t confuse what I want with what is likely to be acheiveable.

 

Look at this bellend here increased by 20% last time he doesn't think we can manage six.  Lucky you're not in charge.

[DublinMagyar]

Look at this bellend here increased by 20% last time he doesn't think we can manage six.  Lucky you're not in charge.

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