When will indyref2 happen?

[jmothecat]

Is independence about living in a social democratic country though? It's something I always found slightly odd about the yes movement. I lived in Glasgow during the referendum and was interested by how left-wing the campaign seemed to be positioning itself. Being from the North East and a family of 'traditional' SNP supporters I always found that at odds with the conservative nationalism of the north east. I could see the appeal as the central belt is considerably more left-wing than Banffshire and Kincardineshire where I grew up, and to win independence it seemed obvious they needed to attract the left. What impressed me was their ability to hang on to the conservative pro-Indy group as well as the left. They seemed to manage to get both groups vote for them in 2015. What now though? They need a referendum to keep everyone in line, but it seems as though a referendum now would be as unsuccessful as the last one. The Corbyn phenomenon seems to be the latest flavour of the month for the 'right-on' left, as much in Scotland as the rest of the U.K. How do the SNP get them back?

What I think is crucial is that whilst the SNP are getting less popular I don't think independence is.

[jmothecat]

Mind that if this parliament goes full term Corbyn will be 73. If he does get elected the odds are he'll not have long to change British society.
 

Not after 5 more years of Hunt in charge of the NHS anyway.

[1320Lichtie]

Is independence about living in a social democratic country though? It's something I always found slightly odd about the yes movement. I lived in Glasgow during the referendum and was interested by how left-wing the campaign seemed to be positioning itself. Being from the North East and a family of 'traditional' SNP supporters I always found that at odds with the conservative nationalism of the north east. I could see the appeal as the central belt is considerably more left-wing than Banffshire and Kincardineshire where I grew up, and to win independence it seemed obvious they needed to attract the left. What impressed me was their ability to hang on to the conservative pro-Indy group as well as the left. They seemed to manage to get both groups vote for them in 2015. What now though? They need a referendum to keep everyone in line, but it seems as though a referendum now would be as unsuccessful as the last one. The Corbyn phenomenon seems to be the latest flavour of the month for the 'right-on' left, as much in Scotland as the rest of the U.K. How do the SNP get them back?

 

What I think is crucial is that whilst the SNP are getting less popular I don't think independence is.

 

It's about living in the kind of country Scottish people want to live in. That's it.

 

If we were independent and Ruthie was running the show after being voted in by the Scottish public you'd not find me moaning.

 

Simple as that.

[Ira Gaines]

2 minutes ago, 1320Lichtie said:

 

It's about living in the kind of country Scottish people want to live in. That's it.

 

If we were independent and Ruthie was running the show after being voted in by the Scottish public you'd not find me moaning.

 

Simple as that.

Quite. If we end up run by a vicious Tory party, then that would be our choice to make, and that's pretty much the way it should be.

[git-intae-thum]

The SNP as a political party can move further left if it chooses.

However the independence movement in itself should not be taking sides left or right.

It needs to be a broad kirk where all reasonable views and arguments are welcome.

Its a justifiable criticism that the last yes campaign was being dominated by the left, but its up to pro yes right leaning groups and individuals to voice louder.

As a balance to a lefty SNP, Scotland could do with a pro indy centre right party.

This would take votes from the tories and give a pro independence politician another seat on the tv panels . This would help stop the the awful yoon lablibtory trio constantly being able to gang up, tag team style, on a solitary independence voice.

 

[vikingTON]

For once jmo actually makes a valid point, in the sense that the 'social democracy' narrative really did dominate the independence debate. That's the most popular strand generally speaking, so there's a logic to that being emphasised. But the tactical goal to bring about a successful independence movement is for that idea to dominate all mainstream parts of the political spectrum and simply remove craven unionism from the scene. The problem for the SNP is that the plurality of votes that they need to govern Scotland lies on the centre-left but not an absolute majority, while they don't have a counterpart organisation to take the fermer vote as well. And the Greens simply aren't strong enough to dominate the centre-left and allow a different SNP leadership to secure the centre-right.

There could well be a major realignment after a second independence referendum but that would only occur in the context of a pretty damaging defeat.

[Lurkst]

7 minutes ago, git-intae-thum said:

As a balance to a lefty SNP, Scotland could do with a pro indy centre right party.

This would take votes from the tories and give a pro independence politician another seat on the tv panels . This would help stop the the awful yoon lablibtory trio constantly being able to gang up, tag team style, on a solitary independence voice.

 

Could be a welcome addition, but the new party would take votes from the SNP too though.

[git-intae-thum]

7 minutes ago, Lurkst said:

Could be a welcome addition, but the new party would take votes from the SNP too though.

Yeh,  in Westmimster elections it may well do so.

But as it stands Westmimster elections are very much of secondary importance.

In the proportional representative Holyrood (where the pro indy majority is really important) it would not lessen the overall pro independence support and would likely take votes from the tory yoons.

[git-intae-thum]

5 minutes ago, git-intae-thum said:

Yeh,  in Westmimster elections it may well do so.

But as it stands Westmimster elections are very much of secondary importance.

In the proportional representative Holyrood (where the pro indy majority is really important) it would not lessen the overall pro independence support and would likely take votes from the tory yoons.

**Westminster***

Small phone....sausage fingers

[DrewDon]

I understand the logic of the 'Tory government is fine as long as we elect it' argument, but I just can't bring myself to agree with it. Independence has to be a means to an end, IMO; my support for it is primarily based on the likelihood of making Scotland a more just, equal and fundamentally fairer country in the long-term. If I thought staying in the UK was more likely to achieve this, I would have to think again about my position. Of course there are compelling arguments for independence separate from party politics, but I find it hard to fully get on board with that particular line. Each to their own, though. 

[G-MAN]

The mainstream media has a massive impact and they stuck the boot into Corbyn at every chance and were massively biased. Also had a lot of his own party working against him for a long time.

How can anyone be stupid enough to come away with "well, he lost" given the size of vote swing and what he worked against to reach it?

 

 

Cos he lost ?

 

Will take another huge swing to get over the line next time, it has to be soon.

 

 

[ICTJohnboy]

1 hour ago, DA Baracus said:

Corbyn.

Aye I'm sure he actually gives a f**k about Scotland. More importantly, I'm sure his party give a f**k about Scotland, including anyone who succeeds him as leader of Labour

 

Indeed.

And about as much as all the other Westminster based parties give a f**k about Scotland.

[AyrExile]

I wonder if Sturgeon had initially took heed of the listening exercise conducted then today's back-pedalling could have been avoided. Independence is now sunk for a long while and main priority for Sturgeon is managing break up of the hive back towards Labour.  

[Colkitto]

May has lost her big chance. She should have agreed to indyref2 right away and could have really put indy into the long grass. 

Now, we have more time to build a huge Yes movement from grassroots level. Glad the SNP have taken that on-board going by the FM's comments today.

2020 could be just about right.... 

 

[git-intae-thum]

18 minutes ago, AyrExile said:

I wonder if Sturgeon had initially took heed of the listening exercise conducted then today's back-pedalling could have been avoided. Independence is now sunk for a long while and main priority for Sturgeon is managing break up of the hive back towards Labour.  

Depends what you classify as a long while. Personally can't see it being put off too long regardless of the SNP's vote see-sawing slightly in elections. 

The underlying support base for independence is now solid. We are in a strange pre brexit period the now, where people are cagey about further upheaval. However in the medium to long term support for independence can only continue to grow.

The genie is well and truly out.

 

 

 

[NotThePars]

1 hour ago, 1320Lichtie said:

 

It's about living in the kind of country Scottish people want to live in. That's it.

 

If we were independent and Ruthie was running the show after being voted in by the Scottish public you'd not find me moaning.

 

Simple as that.

 

liberalism.txt 

[NotThePars]

1 hour ago, git-intae-thum said:

Yeh,  in Westmimster elections it may well do so.

But as it stands Westmimster elections are very much of secondary importance.

In the proportional representative Holyrood (where the pro indy majority is really important) it would not lessen the overall pro independence support and would likely take votes from the tory yoons.

 

Well it depends what people are voting Tory for. If they're voting for unionism then a centre right pro-independence party will do nothing to the Tory vote share. It may, however, take further votes from the SNP who are starting to face a starker choice about where they want to position themselves.

 

[RedRob72]

What is supposed to make a difference? You think May is suddenly going to open up an all party negotiating team? You think she's going to backtrack on the single market - something Corbyn is hardly a great believer in? While there is a parliamentary majority for both - and there is - then the SNP will be on the sidelines, regardless of the imminence or otherwise of another Indyref. For the SNP, this is an exercise in repositioning, not a wholesale change in mind. As Ivo says above, the Tories get to own Brexit for a bit longer, the SNP comeback after the summer and probably glide to the left to shore up that flank. Let some of the heat go out of the Indy Ref debate so denying Colonel Blimp and Deputy Dug a major line of attack and rebuild towards the still fairly probable IndyRef legislation in Autumn 18/19.

If that's all it is 'an exercise in repositioning' Sturgeon will remain firmly on the sidelines. It's up to her to convince May that she should have a seat at the Brexit table. A difficult pitch given that she flatly refused any cooperation after June 16 and dived straight in for a 2nd Ref with the mistaken belief that she had gained the upper hand again with regards to Independence in Scotland. She certainly took her eye off the ball concerning Westminster and Europe.

If she's prepared to park IndyRef 2, it's up to Sturgeon to show her real mettle and influencing skills now, and that she truly wishes to be positively involved. I wish she would, I might disagree with her politics but she's undoubtedly a skilled and capable politician.

My guess is that she will spend the next 18 months, sniping & sneering, with very little to offer in terms of 'putting our shoulder to the wheel' as she puts it.

Will the SNP present a different proposition to the Scottish electorate in the latter part of 2018..? I doubt it.

[Bedford White]

5 hours ago, JMDP said:

Decent statement.

I've mentioned on the other thread but I really think it's time that labour supporters in Scotland ask themselves difficult questions.

Corbyn was rejected by the electorate. Yes, he didn't do as disastrously as many thought, but a real, genuine progressive UK was an option and it was miles away from forming a government against the biggest clusterfuck of a campaign ever run.

Do Labour "progressives" genuinely want to stay in a union where Scotland will never be run in the way their politics would like? Is the union and nationalism more important to them than actually being able to take Scotland on a progressive path, where a centre left party can actually win and implement the type of fairer policies they support?
 

I don't get this Corbyn was rejected by the electorate. He gained 3.5 million additional votes from 2015. The biggest increase in Labour vote share since 1945. He increased Labour's national share of the vote by 9% from 2015.He turned marginal Labour seats into super majorities. Likewise, he won Tory seats in areas previously unheard of. 

All this despite unprecedented treachery from the PLP and attacks from the msm and a regressive electoral alliance between Tories and UKIP. He turned a supposed 100-150 seat Tory majority and the end of Labour as a political force into a hung parliament in 6 weeks. He managed to energise huge swathes of the UK population, getting young people politicised for the first time in years. There was only one political winner of the 2017 GE imo (DUP excepted) and that was JC.

[1320Lichtie]

I don't get this Corbyn was rejected by the electorate. He gained 3.5 million additional votes from 2015. The biggest increase in Labour vote share since 1945. He increased Labour's national share of the vote by 9% from 2015.He turned marginal Labour seats into super majorities. Likewise, he won Tory seats in areas previously unheard of. 
All this despite unprecedented treachery from the PLP and attacks from the msm and a regressive electoral alliance between Tories and UKIP. He turned a supposed 100-150 seat Tory majority and the end of Labour as a political force into a hung parliament in 6 weeks. He managed to energise huge swathes of the UK population, getting young people politicised for the first time in years. There was only one political winner of the 2017 GE imo (DUP excepted) and that was JC.

Because of how pish Labour and Milliband were in 2015 AND because of how bad Theresa May was this time round.

Corbyn lost to an absolute clown.