H_B Posted July 5, 2015 Share Posted July 5, 2015 A no vote is probably best for Greece and democracy overall. Can't help thinking the EU will keep on trying to get the Greeks to accept a bailout until they do so. Don't really see how they can. Unless they cave in to Tsipras which after the rhetoric of the last few weeks from Juncker and co seems impossible. I think they'll cut Greece loose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alan Stubbs Posted July 5, 2015 Share Posted July 5, 2015 Yep, looks like me and you are responsible for European chaos. I hope you can sleep tonight. Tsk. I'm very pleased with what I've done. A modern hero really Hollande and Merkel meeting tomorrow. Interesting to see what was bluffing and what was fact. Obviously Greece's Eurozone membership* will be the biggy on that front. It seems like the Yes side put all their eggs in basket of the No = no Euro. Some lessons for the rest of us on holding your nerve if those threats don't materialise. *Greece to leave Eurozone is 5/4 and stay is 4/7 on Skybet if anyone's interested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted July 5, 2015 Share Posted July 5, 2015 Don't really see how they can. Unless they cave in to Tsipras which after the rhetoric of the last few weeks from Juncker and co seems impossible. I think they'll cut Greece loose. I'll give you 2/1 on Greece leaving the Euro within 3 months time. Tenner? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jagfox Posted July 5, 2015 Share Posted July 5, 2015 I'll give you 2/1 on Greece leaving the Euro within 3 months time. Tenner? 5 drachmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted July 5, 2015 Share Posted July 5, 2015 I'm very pleased with what I've done. A modern hero really Hollande and Merkel meeting tomorrow. Interesting to see what was bluffing and what was fact. Obviously Greece's Eurozone membership* will be the biggy on that front. It seems like the Yes side put all their eggs in basket of the No = no Euro. Some lessons for the rest of us on holding your nerve if those threats don't materialise. *Greece to leave Eurozone is 5/4 and stay is 4/7 on Skybet if anyone's interested. Are we going to go for 2 out of 2 ? Its a bit early to talk about lessons on holding nerve.. They haven't achieved anything yet. Could still be that this is a terrible mistake. Definitely the most interesting result for popcorn watchers. See the banks are just about out of 20 euro notes so their withdrawal limits are due facto down to 50. Predicted to run out of euros very soon. Could be humanitarian aid isn't that far away if this drags on for even another week. There's going to be people starving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alan Stubbs Posted July 5, 2015 Share Posted July 5, 2015 Are we going to go for 2 out of 2 ? Its a bit early to talk about lessons on holding nerve.. They haven't achieved anything yet. Could still be that this is a terrible mistake. Definitely the most interesting result for popcorn watchers. See the banks are just about out of 20 euro notes so their withdrawal limits are due facto down to 50. Predicted to run out of euros very soon. Could be humanitarian aid isn't that far away if this drags on for even another week. There's going to be people starving. Hence the "if". Aye f**k it, let's double down on my fail I'll go for Greece to stay in this time. I hope so anyway, the more enthusiastic Eurosceptics will be absolutely bereft if the predictions they've been making for years don't materialise from here. 100% right on the popcorn front. It's becomg a tired cliche already but it is a game of poker from here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparky88 Posted July 5, 2015 Share Posted July 5, 2015 Could be humanitarian aid isn't that far away if this drags on for even another week. There's going to be people starving.or Putin steps in to, er, save the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted July 5, 2015 Share Posted July 5, 2015 The boys who are being sent tomorrow to continue negotiations must be looking forward to a warm welcome.. Don't think there'll be danish pastries with their coffee Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doulikefish Posted July 5, 2015 Share Posted July 5, 2015 The Greek people going "f**k it how worse can it get" by the sounds of it,No polling 56% in governments worst polling areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted July 5, 2015 Share Posted July 5, 2015 Thank f**k we aren't in the Euro. Much easier to watch from afar with our much lower exposure to this utter shambles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alan Stubbs Posted July 5, 2015 Share Posted July 5, 2015 I'm wondering if Syriza have played a blinder with their apparent offers of concessions last week. After Merkel saying negotiations wouldn't be possible until after the Referendum, she can't possibly turn around and say the Referendum doesn't change anything now. I'm sure she saw this vote as a way of nipping Syriza in the bud. To continue the poker analogy, Tsipras' looking a bit shaky last week might've been the grimace after the flop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AberdeenBud Posted July 5, 2015 Share Posted July 5, 2015 Unfortunately it probably can get worse, and quickly. Reading between the lines, i can see a Franco-German rift developing over a Grexit. There's also the small matter of any new bailout having to be ratified in Eurozone parliaments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted July 5, 2015 Share Posted July 5, 2015 I'm wondering if Syriza have played a blinder with their apparent offers of concessions last week. After Merkel saying negotiations wouldn't be possible until after the Referendum, she can't possibly turn around and say the Referendum doesn't change anything now. I'm sure she saw this vote as a way of nipping Syriza in the bud. To continue the poker analogy, Tsipras' looking a bit shaky last week might've been the grimace after the flop. I thought the EU chat about even if you vote Yes we might tell you to go f**k yourselves was an attempt to appear magnanimous once the Yes vote was in. I don't really see that this strengthens Tsipras's hand. He was already being blanked by the creditors when trying to renegotiate their terms, has fucked them off more with this referendum and all he's really got now is a mandate to continue the same tack that wasn't working for him before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fotbawmad Posted July 5, 2015 Share Posted July 5, 2015 Most of the Yes voters I've seen wheeled out in front of the pro Yes media have been the I'm alright Jack types. If Yes won out, it would essentially be an admittance they're in denial about what's happening. Regardless, the same situation would reappear months or a few short years down the line. Leaving the Euro would cause a lot more short term pain, but the situation would naturally fix itself in a few short years. After all, having a greatly devalued Drachma would bring in a lot of foreign investment. I certainly would strongly consider going to Greece on holiday in the not too distant future. Greece absolutely needs debt write offs and restructuring in order to fix anything in the long run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michael W Posted July 5, 2015 Share Posted July 5, 2015 The negotiations are for the minute off the table - the offer expired. What happens next, if it is indeed a No, will be absolutely fascinating. Will the bluff have been called? Will the creditors renegotiate, or refuse to deal with Greece? Both sides painted themselves into a corner, but now the ball looks firmly in the creditors' court - can they afford to back down? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doulikefish Posted July 5, 2015 Share Posted July 5, 2015 Im guessing a "deal" will be found Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted July 5, 2015 Share Posted July 5, 2015 The negotiations are for the minute off the table - the offer expired. What happens next, if it is indeed a No, will be absolutely fascinating. Will the bluff have been called? Will the creditors renegotiate, or refuse to deal with Greece? Both sides painted themselves into a corner, but now the ball looks firmly in the creditors' court - can they afford to back down? I'm the short term they don't have to. They can keep the tap switched off bailout wise, tell Tsipras that the last offer is the only one on the table and watch the carnage ensue as the Greek banks run out of money and people begin to suffer . See what happens in a weeks time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
P45 Posted July 5, 2015 Share Posted July 5, 2015 Go Greece. They're no shite bags like the Scots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HTG Posted July 5, 2015 Share Posted July 5, 2015 I suspect Europe will not oversee a humanitarian disaster on its doorstep nor the collapse of the banking system. But they may drip feed just enough to allow functionality whilst a plan is developed for what happens next. The French and Germans are in for about 120bn of the debt iirc - not including the ECB stuff. That will cause a tickle in the tummy but even then they'll not want to oversee people dying in the streets - their politicians would get slaughtered along with Junker. I still think America has an interest in this if Greece hints at looking East or far east for substantial assistance. That really wouldn't suit the land of the free at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HTG Posted July 5, 2015 Share Posted July 5, 2015 I also can't see how Tsipras can lift capital controls as promised though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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