Greek referendum

[doulikefish]

My mates live in Crete,they are saying its not as bad as the press are making out,but they live in quite a rich island all things considered.Anybody got any mates in Athens?Id like to hear how its going there

[Ad Lib]

I'll ask you since Ad-Lib hasn't yet come through - Please provide the specifics of the lies that were told to be allowed to join the Single Currency.

I didn't say there were lies.

[strichener]

I didn't say there were lies.

"It was a form of deceit"

Anyway, they were politicians so lying would have been OK in your book.

[DeeTillEhDeh]

I'll ask you since Ad-Lib hasn't yet come through - Please provide the specifics of the lies that were told to be allowed to join the Single Currency.

So far the only thing that you have actually provided details for is a deal that took place after they were already accepted into the currency. The same is true for the miliatary spending that you previously referred to (although the change in classification took place in 2004) this lead to the government re-allocating spending based on when deposits were made for goods rather than when they were delivered. With the lead time in military hardware, this had the effect of front-loading the spending into years that the new Greek government was not responsible for. Even with this change, Greece's deficit on entering the single currency would have been 3.1% of GDP (against the 2.5% stated in 1999) which was still lower than many that adopted the Euro.

I would content that the blame should reside with the entire EU and not individual member states but agree in terms of political vs economic aims.

There has been research using a breach of Benford's law that shows the data on which entry was based on was manipulated.

Benford's Law is a statistical regularity that often occurs in “real” data but not in manipulated numbers. Bernhard Rauch, Max Göttsche, Gernot Brähler and Stefan Engel (published in the German Economic Review) published a paper using Benford’s Law to examine Greek macroeconomic data.

According to Rauch and his colleagues, Greek data are further from the Benford distribution than that of any other European Union member state. Romania, Latvia and Belgium also have abnormally distributed data, while Portugal, Italy and Spain have a clean bill of health.

[HTG]

I was talking to my doctor on Friday (currently in hospital on Rhodes) he reckons the Americans will press a few of Merkel's buttons in the background on this (doctor is also half German) because strategically Greece is important in terms of location (rather than giving many fucks about the people). If they can't get money from the eurozone there is a fear they'll look East to Russia or China. So for all it looks like deadlock I think he expects a solution somewhere along the line.

[strichener]

There has been research using a breach of Benford's law that shows the data on which entry was based on was manipulated.

Benford's Law is a statistical regularity that often occurs in “real” data but not in manipulated numbers. Bernhard Rauch, Max Göttsche, Gernot Brähler and Stefan Engel (published in the German Economic Review) published a paper using Benford’s Law to examine Greek macroeconomic data.

According to Rauch and his colleagues, Greek data are further from the Benford distribution than that of any other European Union member state. Romania, Latvia and Belgium also have abnormally distributed data, while Portugal, Italy and Spain have a clean bill of health.

No specific lies that you can detail then?

[Zetterlund]

I was talking to my doctor on Friday (currently in hospital on Rhodes) he reckons the Americans will press a few of Merkel's buttons in the background on this (doctor is also half German) because strategically Greece is important in terms of location (rather than giving many fucks about the people). If they can't get money from the eurozone there is a fear they'll look East to Russia or China. So for all it looks like deadlock I think he expects a solution somewhere along the line.

The American neocons will be having recurring nightmares about a Russki fleet at Piraeus. Would be top trolling from the Greeks.

[welshbairn]

I was talking to my doctor on Friday (currently in hospital on Rhodes) he reckons the Americans will press a few of Merkel's buttons in the background on this (doctor is also half German) because strategically Greece is important in terms of location (rather than giving many fucks about the people). If they can't get money from the eurozone there is a fear they'll look East to Russia or China. So for all it looks like deadlock I think he expects a solution somewhere along the line.

Think I'll buy a load of Euros tomorrow at just under 1.40 to the pound for a couple of trips coming up later in the year. I think they'll stitch together some kind of deal that will reassure the markets.

[DeeTillEhDeh]

No specific lies that you can detail then?

In March 2002, Eurostat refused to validate data transmitted by the Greek government. In reaction, the National Statistics Service of Greece revised the debt level by several percentage points.

Come September 2002, Eurostat again refused to validate the data that entry had been based on. The debt was revised upwards once again by the NSSG and the government balance, which the Greek government had presented as a surplus, became a deficit.

Again, in March 2004, Eurostat refused again to validate the Greek numbers.

In response, the New Democracy government decided to have an objective financial audit of the government accounts. Unfortunately this did not take a long fine and did not involve either outside auditing firms nor the central bank.

Instead, the New Democracy government produced new estimates covering the years 1997 - 2003, and the resulting data was given to Eurostat, which then went on and published a report. These revised figures now showed, not a surplus as was first claimed by the Greeks on entry but a deficit of 3.07%. So, even by the Greeks own figures it is clear that there was some serious manipulation going on to meet entry criteria.

Moreover, the 2005 OECD report on the Greek economy for the years 1997-99 shows that these figures underestimated the true deficit by at least 1%.

Also, a little context - up until 1994 the Greeks ran deficits of 10% or greater, suddenly they dropped towards the magical 3% figure.

Call me cynical but somehow I don't believe the Greeks managed to cut their deficit from over 10% to a deficit of 3.07% in the space of 5 years. Perhaps one reason that Eurostat did act so hard on Greece was that their initial figures, the ones showing a surplus, were in the realms of fantasy.

But then the Greeks have not been the only ones who have manipulated their data. It seems to have happened on different scales across the Eurozone - almost self-delusional economic justification for a Franco-German political vanity project.

[Mr Rational]

Think I'll buy a load of Euros tomorrow at just under 1.40 to the pound for a couple of trips coming up later in the year. I think they'll stitch together some kind of deal that will reassure the markets.

As with me, I'm going in September but the rate is as good as it's been in a while, so heading to get the money tomorrow.

Thomson's are giving £1 - €1.36.

Anyone doing better?

[welshbairn]

As with me, I'm going in September but the rate is as good as it's been in a while, so heading to get the money tomorrow.

Thomson's are giving £1 - €1.36.

Anyone doing better?

Just got 1.38 with Tesco online.

[Mr Rational]

Just reading that Moodies have just down credited their banks again.

So cash it most definitely is then.

I think you are insured up to £600 cash, we are taking £1000 for the week so might have a look at upgrading our travel insurance just in case as well.

I love Greece, it's my favourite destination and the people there are normally great, I feel they are being well and truly fucked over this. You can debate the whole 'taxation, retire at 55, 300 F16' stuff till the coo's come home, but like everywhere else, it's the Ordinary folk that will have to bear the brunt of this and it sucks.

[Ad Lib]

"It was a form of deceit"

Anyway, they were politicians so lying would have been OK in your book.

Deceit is different from lies.

[DeeTillEhDeh]

Deceit is different from lies.

Are they?

A lie is no more than a form of deceit.

Perhaps what you mean is that a deceit is not always a lie (but all lies are deceit).

[strichener]

In March 2002, Eurostat refused to validate data transmitted by the Greek government. In reaction, the National Statistics Service of Greece revised the debt level by several percentage points.

Come September 2002, Eurostat again refused to validate the data that entry had been based on. The debt was revised upwards once again by the NSSG and the government balance, which the Greek government had presented as a surplus, became a deficit.

Again, in March 2004, Eurostat refused again to validate the Greek numbers.

In response, the New Democracy government decided to have an objective financial audit of the government accounts. Unfortunately this did not take a long fine and did not involve either outside auditing firms nor the central bank.

Instead, the New Democracy government produced new estimates covering the years 1997 - 2003, and the resulting data was given to Eurostat, which then went on and published a report. These revised figures now showed, not a surplus as was first claimed by the Greeks on entry but a deficit of 3.07%. So, even by the Greeks own figures it is clear that there was some serious manipulation going on to meet entry criteria.

Moreover, the 2005 OECD report on the Greek economy for the years 1997-99 shows that these figures underestimated the true deficit by at least 1%.

Also, a little context - up until 1994 the Greeks ran deficits of 10% or greater, suddenly they dropped towards the magical 3% figure.

Call me cynical but somehow I don't believe the Greeks managed to cut their deficit from over 10% to a deficit of 3.07% in the space of 5 years. Perhaps one reason that Eurostat did act so hard on Greece was that their initial figures, the ones showing a surplus, were in the realms of fantasy.

But then the Greeks have not been the only ones who have manipulated their data. It seems to have happened on different scales across the Eurozone - almost self-delusional economic justification for a Franco-German political vanity project.

All after the event. At the time Eurostat validated the data provided by Greece. See here: http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-99-830_en.htm

Here is a counter-balance to the Greek retrospective changes. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e31661cc-53bd-11d9-b6e4-00000e2511c8.html#axzz3eX6MQaxW

[welshbairn]

Here's the ballot for the Greek referendum:

And the simplified version:

[Ross.]

It's sound guys. Looks like someone has come up with an alternative to fix it...

[DeeTillEhDeh]

All after the event. At the time Eurostat validated the data provided by Greece. See here: http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-99-830_en.htm

Here is a counter-balance to the Greek retrospective changes. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e31661cc-53bd-11d9-b6e4-00000e2511c8.html#axzz3eX6MQaxW

That second link is not working for me.

[DeeTillEhDeh]

All after the event. At the time Eurostat validated the data provided by Greece. See here: http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-99-830_en.htm

Here is a counter-balance to the Greek retrospective changes. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e31661cc-53bd-11d9-b6e4-00000e2511c8.html#axzz3eX6MQaxW

I think it's fair to say that there was almost certainly not due diligence in the processing of Greece's application to join the Eurozone.

In their desperation to get as many members signed up it seems to me that a blind eye was turned to what were clearly fantasy figures.

The subsequent action by Eurostat was akin to shutting the door after the horse bolted.

There's a lot of blame to be shared here - by Greece's political leaders at the time, by the various EU institutions and, probably the key force, the German and French governments.

[strichener]

That second link is not working for me.

Try this one. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/1/81534240-5389-11d9-b6e4-00000e2511c8.html#axzz3eX6MQaxW