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French Open Tennis


Loki

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I did try and post this the other night, but the site was offline when I hit post.

I think Novak played well, but the decline of Nadal is there for everyone to see. Novak was winning his service games relatively easy compared to Nadal, and Nadal had such a bad start. Nadal doesn't quite have the lateral movement of the Nadal of a few years ago, and there is less power in his forehand. Novak had a few awful misses under pressure, particularly on overheads. But his service games were good and was able to fend off Nadal reasonably well.

I think Nadal will need to adapt his game further to challenge for Grand Slams again, because of the decrease in lateral movement and power in his forehand. He is in a transitional phase currently (much like Federer in 2013 and Murray in 2014) coming back from injury. Both came back to have superb years after the transitional year, so I wouldn't write him off totally. If Tsonga beats Wawrinka on Friday, Nadal will drop out of the top 10.

Murray was very good in patches but was let down by his first serve at times. But to be fair to Ferrer his returning was superb as always. He works hard and continually gets to balls he shouldn't really be getting too. You couldn't really grudge him his set. But Murray was well worth the win.

Murray has lost to Djokovic seven times in a row. In fact since winning the US Open in 2012 he has beaten Novak once in 11 games (the final of Wimbledon). The head to head after the US Open was 8-7 in favour of Djokovic, but now stands at 18-8.

The key to beating him is the same as it always. Is he needs 65%+ first serves in and needs to take the first set. Djokovic is on another level currently, so wouldn't expect an upset.

I am happy to write off Nadal, as he is only going to go one way from here in my opinion. I've been telling people since the start of the year he had no chance of winning this tournament. For the first four rounds he had a very kind draw, and would have lost to Murray, Wawrinka and possibly a few others if he had met them I believe. The stat that flashed up near the end of the match was very telling; Djokovic led the forehand winners count 23-3 (may have changed slightly in the last game or two). Three forehand winners in a match at Roland Garros; that's astonishing.

Djokovic is currently 1.21 to win the semi-final and 1.37 to win the tournament. I think that underestimates Murray's recent performances. However the pattern against Djokovic head-to-head lately has often been to match him for two or two and a half sets before completely collapsing. Was that mental or physical? I have a sneaking suspicion for a close match, possibly five sets, but then for the past number of years when betting on the French Open I'd have been better off just lighting a bonfire of £20 notes to save time during this tournament. This year I've called it virtually all correctly but not wagered a penny on it. :rolleyes:

If Wawrinka plays like he did against Federer, and Nadal in Rome, then he can win this tournament also. Djokovic was similarly favoured to win the tournament before he lost the US Open semi-final to Nishikori. Certainly much to play for.

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I've only been dipping in and out of this as I'm working but it's really not been the highest quality semi final. I know the heat is obviously a factor in that but I would expect Murray or Djokovic would cruise against either of these guys playing at this level.

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Never been a fan of Tsonga so good to see he's going to fall at this stage again. I've always admired Wawrinka, he hits a lovely ball and you have to give him enormous credit for the last 18 months, after spending a decade in Roger's shadow.

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Forecast for rain later, and they reckon that once it starts it will be on for the night. fair chance that Murray's game will run into tomorrow and if it does they will finish before the women's final.

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Stan served very competently when on break point and saved an obscene amount of break points. He will not be as fortunate against Djokovic (or Murray if he wins), as Tsonga's return game isn't very good. Tsonga served superbly but without the return of serve he won't win a Slam, although he could serve himself to a US Open much like Cilic did.

Big match now. Hoping for a cracking match.

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